Belarus' apparent economic recovery will be short-lived as structural issues undermine long-term growth, but pervasively fragile economic conditions will not be enough to reignite opposition against the regime in Minsk ahead of elections in 2024. On Aug. 8, Belarusian First Deputy Prime Minister Nikolai Snopkov announced at a meeting of the country's Council of Ministers that Belarus had returned to positive economic growth rates as of March and that gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2% year on year in the first half of 2023. This return to growth would mark a change of direction for the Belarusian economy, which, according to the IMF, contracted by 4.7% in 2022. The government's efforts to return to growth have focused on stimulating domestic demand with cheap loans and mass re-exports to Russia of American and European Union goods that Russia can no longer procure due to sanctions. However, Belarusians' panic buying of...
