Annual

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

We expect most of the world to adopt a "live-with-COVID" strategy that seeks to keep economies as open as possible and to avoid the recession-provoking policies of 2020 and parts of 2021.