Forecasts

U.S.-China tensions, a push by the Global South to build a parallel world order, new governments implementing controversial reforms and elections triggering social unrest will shape the fourth quarter.

During the quarter, elections in territories covering a joint population of more than 2 billion will determine the political and economic direction of some of the world’s largest economies.

The war in Ukraine, energy and food inflation and the persistence of the COVID-19 pandemic will create political, economic, security and social risk around the world during the second quarter.

Elections in 2024 across diverse territories and amid various socioeconomic and geopolitical contexts will collectively influence global affairs and shape international relations for the decade ahead.

Multilateral cooperation will weaken as economic activity slows and the main pillars of the global economy increase protectionism in another year of war and tight energy supplies.

Uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the U.S. presidential and congressional elections will shape the actions and decisions of countries around the world in 2020. A contentious election year in the United States means that even as other nations deal with their own domestic, regional and global concerns, they must take into account the opportunities and risks in decisions that overlap U.S. interests, considering the possible dramatic post-election change in U.S. posture

Over the next 10 years, the world will revert to a multipolar power structure that will encourage constantly shifting alliances and create a more contentious global system. In the midst of this dynamic change, pockets of economic opportunity will emerge.

We continue to maintain the essential forecasts made in 2005.