Assessments

South Africa

China

Taiwan

United Kingdom

Portugal

Poland

Romania

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Donald Trump on May 21 during an official trip to the United States.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Africa's U.S. Reset, Three European Elections

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Media

Turkey

Podcasts

Military & Security

Politics

How does Turkey's political uncertainty affect its economic outlook?

Essential Geopolitics: Turkey's Current Political Environment

Columns

On Geopolitics

United States

Economics

Global Trade

For export-reliant developing countries that were already facing financial distress, the global uncertainty created by Trump's sweeping tariffs will sharply increase economic risks, as well as introduce political instability risks.

 Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 15, 2025

Syria

U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters aboard Air Force One on May 14, 2025, as he flies to Doha, Qatar, for his first trip to the Middle East since returning to the White House. 

Trump's decision to lift sanctions will help kickstart Syria's war-torn economy and strengthen its new government, but sectarian infighting, Israeli aggression and a resurging Islamic State could still hamper progress.

In Syria, the Promise and Limits of U.S. Sanctions Relief

Snapshots

Philippines

Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections. 

President Marcos' diminished Senate majority could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President

A Syrian Kurdish woman waves a flag bearing a picture of the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), Abdullah Ocalan, as people gather in the Kurdish-majority city of Qamishli in northeastern Syria to listen to a message from the jailed leader on Feb. 27, 2025. 

While the disbandment will reduce the near-term risk of Kurdish militant attacks, the peace process could still collapse, which would rob the government of the political support it needs to secure Erdogan's 2028 reelection bid.

What the PKK's Disbandment Means for Turkish Politics and Security

India

Pakistan

The Bombay Stock Exchange building May 7 in Mumbai, India. If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

The Economic Case for an India-Pakistan Ceasefire

Indian soldiers pay respect during a wreath-laying ceremony for a soldier who was killed during a cross-border firing between India and Pakistan, in Jammu on May 12, 2025. 

While the near-term threat of severe escalation has waned, ongoing tensions over thorny issues like Kashmir and water-sharing will sustain the risk of cross-border flare-ups.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

Containers are seen at China's Lianyungang port in eastern Jiangsu province on May 1, 2025. 

Although the U.S.-China trade deal will bring short-term economic relief, negotiations over a broader agreement will remain fraught, particularly since the rapid reduction of U.S. tariffs will embolden China to implement strong retaliation when talks falter.

Despite Tariff Reprieve, a Broader U.S.-China Deal Will Remain Elusive

U.S.-China Relations

Ukraine

Russia

This combination of pictures shows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (left) during a press conference in Berlin on June 11, 2024, and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow on March 18, 2025.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While direct talks mark a notable development in the peace process, Moscow will not make meaningful concessions unless it faces bolder action from the West (particularly the U.S.), like asset seizures and increased military aid to Ukraine.

Russia Agrees To Hold Talks With Ukraine Amid U.S. Pressure, but Peace Will Remain Elusive

Latest

Iran

Jordan

Supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan hold the movement's flag during a demonstration in the capital, Amman, on Nov. 28, 2014.

Militant factions of the Muslim Brotherhood will likely go underground in Jordan following the government's ban on the organization, but Iranian influence and persistent socioeconomic grievances will sustain risks of violence.

In Jordan, a Ban Pushes the Muslim Brotherhood Underground

Europe

A digital illustration of the U.K. and EU flags.

The agreements will institutionalize defense cooperation and ease trade frictions, though lingering political constraints will limit deeper integration in the near term.

The U.K.-EU Deal Signals a Strategic Recalibration of Post-Brexit Trade and Defense Relations

Peru

Peruvian President Dina Boluarte delivers an address in Lima on July 28, 2024.

The potential for reduced political volatility once a new president takes office in July 2026, combined with efforts to reduce bureaucratic red tape, could help the country attract foreign investment, especially in its crucial mining sector.

In Peru, Greater Political Stability Could Unleash Economic Growth

Vietnam

Azerbaijan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam (L) address journalists following their talks in Moscow, Russia, on May 10, 2025, during celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. 

Energy

Vietnam is strengthening its relationships with Eurasian countries, especially Russia, as it looks to further diversify economic and energy ties away from great powers amid an unstable geopolitical landscape.

Russia-Vietnam Ties Are Set To Grow Following Lam's Eurasia Tour

Presidential candidate George Simion is shown on a screen addressing his supporters at the campaign headquarters of their candidate after polls closed on May 4, 2025 in Bucharest, Romania.

Far-right candidate George Simion's first-round win in Romania's presidential race highlights rising anti-establishment sentiment and uncertainty over the country's political and Western trajectory ahead of a tense May 18 runoff.

Romania Faces Turmoil After Far-Right Win in Presidential First Round

Canada

Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Mark Carney speaks to his supporters in Ottawa, Canada, on April 29, 2025, after winning the country’s early general elections. 

Canada's newly elected Liberal government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, is poised to tackle an economic slowdown with tax cuts, domestic industry protection, and closer ties to Europe despite falling just short of a parliamentary majority.

Liberals Win Canada Election, but Minority Government Will Complicate Legislation

Global Elections

People walk past an electronic panel, promoting the contract service in the Russian armed forces, with a sign that reads "Our profession is to defend the Fatherland" in a shopping mall on May 11, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Russia is signaling it may welcome back Western companies, but strict conditions, ongoing sanctions and reputational risks are likely to deter a widespread return.

Russia Opens Door to Western Firms, But With Major Strings Attached

France

U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff (2 L) and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (C) attend a meeting with European and Ukrainian officials on April 17 at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris.

Ukraine will be forced to choose between compromising on its supposed red lines to de-escalate its war with Russia, or risk losing U.S. support and its battlefield position. 

Growing U.S. Pressure for a Peace Deal Puts Ukraine in a Difficult Position

Kuwait

Kuwaiti traders follow the stock market activity at the Boursa Kuwait stock exchange building in Kuwait City on April 7, 2025. 

The law will enable external borrowing to finance the country's deficits and Vision 2035 investments, but Kuwait's growing reliance on debt markets to increase capital expenditure could eventually prove problematic. 

After Eight Years of Gridlock, Kuwait Finally Passes a New Debt Law

Iraq

Yemen

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

Benin

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Madagascar

Mali

Mauritania

Niger

Nigeria

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

Togo

Algeria

Morocco

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power 

Israel

Lebanon

A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel. 

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

Germany

Spain

Italy

NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe’s security architecture. 

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe

U.S. President Donald Trump spoke on the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war, AP reported on May 19.

U.S., Russia: Putin Promises To Work With Ukraine on Peace During Call With Trump

Mozambique

Sources within Russia's Embassy in Mozambique confirmed that the Russian research vessel Atlantida K-1704 had been fired upon around three miles (about 5 kilometers) off the coast of Tambuzi island on May 10, located in Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province, Club of Mozambique reported on May 19. 

Mozambique: Attack of Russian Research Vessel Likely Linked to Islamic State Mozambique Province

Portuguese Prime Minister Luis Montenegro's center-right Democratic Alliance secured the most votes in the May 18 snap election, winning 32%, ahead of the center-left Socialist Party with 23% and the far-right Chega party, which surged to 22.6%, Reuters reported on May 19.

Portugal: Center-Right Alliance Wins Most Seats, But Portugal Left Without Clear Majority

South Korea

During a televised presidential debate on May 18, frontrunner candidate Lee Jae-myung from South Korea's Democratic Party recognized the importance of the U.S. alliance, but added "relationships with China and Russia [were] also important and must be managed wisely," and that "diplomacy must always prioritize national interest and be approached pragmatically," the South China Mornign Post reported May 19.

South Korea: Presidential Frontrunner Touts Rebalancing Ties With China

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on May 19 that Israel will "take control" of all of the Gaza Strip, AFP reported.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Netanyahu Pledges to Take Over Gaza as IDF Expands Military Operations

Centrist, pro-EU Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan, who ran as an independent, won Romania's presidential run-off on May 18 with 53.8% of the vote, defeating far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) leader George Simion, who secured 46.2% despite having led the first round by over 20 points, Politico reported May 19.

Romania: Pro-EU Centrist Candidate Nicusor Dan Elected President

Liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski from Prime Minister Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition won the first round of Poland's presidential election on May 18 with 31.4% of the vote, ahead of conservative challenger Karol Nawrocki, backed by the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party, who secured 29.5%, Reuters reported May 19.

Poland: Government Candidate Trzaskowski Will Face PiS in Presidential Election Runoff

Libya

Aguila Saleh, the president of Libya's eastern parliament, the House of Representatives, called on May 19 for Government of National Unity Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah to give up power "voluntarily or involuntarily," Al-Wasat reported the same day.

Libya: Eastern Parliament Leader Calls on Dbeibah To Step Down Amid Clashes in Tripoli 

Science & Technology

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) moments after the Closing Bell and the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's news conference on tariffs on April 2, 2025.

Rather than sparking a manufacturing renaissance, Trump's tariff policy threatens to undermine U.S. economic competitiveness for years to come.

The Perils and Pitfalls of Trump's Trade Strategy

Members of the Spanish and Bulgarian armed forces during the NATO exercise Steadfast Dart on Feb. 13, 2025, in Tsrancha, Bulgaria. 

Any U.S. retrenchment away from Europe will more likely be gradual, shaped by strategic realities, shared interests and material constraints, but this transition will still carry profound military, economic and societal implications that will deeply reshape the Continent's security landscape and accelerate the transition to a truly multipolar world.

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 1: The View From Washington

Libyan Finance Minister Khalid Al-Mabrouk and more than five other ministers and deputy ministers of the internationally recognized Government of National Unity resigned from the government on May 16, Libya Review reported the same day.

Libya: Several Ministers Resign From Libya's Western Government Amid Protests

Japan

Cyber

Japan's ruling party and most major opposition parties in the Diet passed the Active Cyber Defense Law, which will enable the government to take offensive cyber action during peacetime against overseas targets believed to be facilitating cyberattacks against Japan, The Asahi Shimbun reported on May 16. 

Japan: New Cyber Offensive Law Highlights Broad Support for Curbing Pacifism

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

In Jordan, a Ban Pushes the Muslim Brotherhood Underground

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Russia: Putin Promises To Work With Ukraine on Peace During Call With Trump

Mozambique: Attack of Russian Research Vessel Likely Linked to Islamic State Mozambique Province

Portugal: Center-Right Alliance Wins Most Seats, But Portugal Left Without Clear Majority

South Korea: Presidential Frontrunner Touts Rebalancing Ties With China

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Netanyahu Pledges to Take Over Gaza as IDF Expands Military Operations

Romania: Pro-EU Centrist Candidate Nicusor Dan Elected President

Poland: Government Candidate Trzaskowski Will Face PiS in Presidential Election Runoff

Libya: Eastern Parliament Leader Calls on Dbeibah To Step Down Amid Clashes in Tripoli

Libya: Several Ministers Resign From Libya's Western Government Amid Protests

Japan: New Cyber Offensive Law Highlights Broad Support for Curbing Pacifism

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