Assessments

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Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: May 14, 2026

Turkey

A digital illustration of the Turkish flag.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Continued high inflation, political uncertainty and bureaucratic hurdles will likely limit the overall effectiveness of the reforms, which come ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

Turkey Pursues Tax Reforms Amid Economic Fallout From the Iran War

China

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a bilateral meeting in Busan, South Korea, on Oct. 30, 2025.

Environment, Science & Technology

The May 14-15 meetings will likely yield a limited extension of the current U.S.-China economic detente while leaving core strategic disputes over technology controls, Taiwan and Iran largely unresolved.

Trump-Xi Summit Likely To Preserve Trade Truce, Test Strategic Fault Lines

U.S.-China Relations

Iran

Qatar

Part of the gas processing facilities of Europe's first helium production pilot plant in Saint-Parize-le-Chatel, France, on Sept. 11, 2024.

Energy

Qatar's halt of helium production due to the Iran war risks causing shortages that disrupt key manufacturing industries, particularly in Asia.

How the Iran War is Choking the World's Helium Flow

India

Supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrate with the party flags in Kolkata, India, following state elections in West Bengal.

The ruling party's expanding control across state governments will likely gradually strengthen its position in Parliament and accelerate the implementation of citizenship and labor policies.

In India, the BJP's State Election Wins Set the Stage for National Reform

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa delivers a speech on April 18, 2026.

Ramaphosa will likely attempt to delay his upcoming impeachment process to facilitate the rise of a reformist ANC successor, though he still may preemptively resign, which would likely result in the collapse of South Africa's coalition government.

South Africa's Top Court Shows Ramaphosa the End of the Road

Kenya

Israel

Lebanon

France

United Kingdom

Boats on April 28, 2026 on Qeshm Island, Iran, in the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between the United States and Iran will remain elevated, especially around the strait, following the May 7 U.S.-Iran exchange of attacks and Iranian attacks against the United Arab Emirates.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elevated Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, France Convenes an Africa Summit

U.S.-Iran Relations

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Trucks haul away ore from a pit in the Chinese-owned Tenke Fungurume Mine, one of the largest copper and cobalt mines in the world, in southeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo on June 17, 2023.

Greater access to Congo's mining sector will likely help the U.S. further secure its cobalt and copper supplies, but ongoing security concerns in the Central African country and China's dominance over global mineral processing will limit the extent of these gains.

Trump Goes Hunting For Congo's Minerals

Snapshots

United Arab Emirates

People wave Iranian pre-1979 Islamic Revolution and American flags while members of the Iranian community celebrate in front of the Federal Building on March 1, in Los Angeles. 

The recent exchange of fire around the Strait of Hormuz reflects calculated efforts by Washington and Tehran to re-establish deterrence and project strength, complicating already fragile negotiations.


Iran and U.S. Exchange Fire, Further Straining Ceasefire

Ukraine

Russia

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

People gather at the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut's southern suburbs on May 6, 2026.

Israel's May 6 airstrike, which killed a top Hezbollah commander, will weaken the already tenuous April ceasefire and diminish prospects for U.S.-backed mediation, raising the risk of a return to a wider war.

Beirut Attack Further Dims Prospects for Lebanon-Israel Peace Talks

Latest

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Afghanistan

Pakistan

Afghan protesters burn a Pakistani flag during a demonstration in Helmand Province in 2016.

Gains from the Afghan Taliban's growing regional ties will be hindered by enduring disputes, logistical constraints, infrastructure security risks, and Pakistan's possible absence from future multilateral engagements.

How the Afghan-Pakistani Conflict Is Redrawing Regional Relations

Saudi Arabia

Commercial vessels are seen offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026.

While recent revelations about the airstrikes indicate a shift in both countries' risk calculations, the UAE's hawkish, Israel-aligned posture poses a greater threat of Iranian retaliation than Saudi Arabia's more restrained approach. 

The UAE and Saudi Arabia Enter the War Against Iran, but With Separate Strategies

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on May 14, 2026.

Despite a mutual desire to stabilize relations, Xi and Trump's meetings produced few tangible results, sustaining the risk of future tariff escalations, export restrictions and other coercive measures.

Xi-Trump Talks Fail To Move the Needle on Major Issues

U.K. Health Secretary Wes Streeting arrives at the University of Kent in Canterbury, England, on March 19, 2026, as students receive the Meningitis B vaccine.

While a leadership transition would prolong market volatility, any new prime minister would likely maintain policy continuity and fiscal discipline, differing only on the specific execution of budget restraint and EU rapprochement.

Starmer's Days Appear Numbered After U.K. Health Secretary Quits

Canada

Alberta separatists gather during a rally in front of the Elections Alberta headquarters in Edmonton, Canada, on May 4, 2026.

A renewed independence push in Alberta is highly unlikely to succeed, but Ottawa will still likely have to confront stronger secessionist pressures in Quebec after elections later this year. 

What To Make of the Albertan Secessionist Movement in Canada

While a Ukraine loan scheme will offer opportunities for British companies, it will not reintegrate the United Kingdom into EU defense structures.

A Small Step for EU-British Defense Cooperation

The skyline of Dubai is seen on March 11, 2026.

The UAE's exit will enable it to boost production more quickly once shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, while hindering OPEC's ability to manage the subsequent price drops.

The UAE's Exit From OPEC Further Diminishes the Oil Cartel's Relevance

Romania

Romanian Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan delivers a speech to lawmakers in parliament in Bucharest on June 23, 2025.

The crisis could undermine fiscal consolidation and further empower far-right forces, potentially reversing Romania's EU alignment and harming its economic credibility.

Romania's Latest Political Crisis Threatens Fiscal Reform and EU Alignment

Columns

On Geopolitics

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Yemen

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Azerbaijan

Kyrgyzstan

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addressed the informal Organization of Turkic States summit in Turkestan, Kazakhstan, where he proposed new cooperation on artificial intelligence centers, cybersecurity, digital signatures, space, cultural heritage and Turkic terminology, while rejecting claims that the OTS was a military alliance, KazTAG reported on May 15.

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Says OTS Is Not a Military Bloc as Turkic Ties Deepen

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced a deal on carbon pricing that sets out a schedule for Alberta to increase its headline carbon price from C$95 ($69) per metric ton to C$140 by 2040.

Canada: Alberta, Ottawa Strike Deal on Carbon Price To Unlock Federal Support for Pacific Pipeline

A U.S. State Department spokesperson said Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend their ceasefire by 45 days during the third round of direct Israel-Lebanon talks on May 14-15 in Washington, D.C., Reuters reported on May 15.

Israel, Lebanon: Israel and Lebanon To Extend Ceasefire by 45 Days

Armenia

The pro-Kremlin Matryoshka bot network has published hundreds of fake videos targeting Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan ahead of the June 7 parliamentary election, including narratives claiming that Pashinyan is preparing Armenia for war with Russia, Meduza reported on May 14.

Armenia, Russia: Kremlin Influence Campaign Targets Pashinyan Ahead of Vote

Tanzania

Tanzania's registrar of political parties has threatened to suspend or fine the main opposition party, Chadema, over alleged "incitement" and anti-government remarks, The Citizen reported on May 15.

Tanzania: Registrar of Political Parties Threatens To Suspend Main Opposition Party

Poland

Polish government officials said Warsaw has received U.S. assurances that Washington does not plan to systematically cut its presence in Poland in response to reports revealing the sudden cancellation of a planned rotational deployment of roughly 4,000 U.S.-based troops, Politico reported on May 15.

Poland, U.S.: Warsaw Downplays U.S. Cancellation of 4,000-Troop Deployment, Citing Wider Reassurances

Ethiopia

The Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, launched a drone strike on the Ethiopian locality of Kurmuk on April 29, killing at least eight civilians, including one humanitarian worker from the International Organization for Migration, Addis Standard reported on May 14 based on testimonies from local residents.

Sudan: SAF Reportedly Launched Drone Strike Into Western Ethiopia in Late April

During Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the United Arab Emirates, both sides agreed on a framework for a strategic defense partnership, Reuters reported on May 15.

India: New Delhi Signs Defense and Energy Agreements With UAE

Science & Technology

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

India's state-run fuel retailers raised petrol and diesel prices by 3 rupees ($0.03) per liter, a little over a 3% increase, Bloomberg reported on May 15.

India: New Delhi Increases Retail Fuel Prices for First Time Since Iran War Began

Iraq's new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi was sworn in on May 14 with a partial cabinet after parliament approved 14 ministers but failed to reach consensus on nine remaining portfolios, including the key Interior and Defense ministries, Reuters reported the same day.

Iraq: New Prime Minister Sworn In With a Partial Cabinet

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

Xi-Trump Talks Fail To Move the Needle on Major Issues

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Says OTS Is Not a Military Bloc as Turkic Ties Deepen

Canada: Alberta, Ottawa Strike Deal on Carbon Price To Unlock Federal Support for Pacific Pipeline

Israel, Lebanon: Israel and Lebanon To Extend Ceasefire by 45 Days

Armenia, Russia: Kremlin Influence Campaign Targets Pashinyan Ahead of Vote

Tanzania: Registrar of Political Parties Threatens To Suspend Main Opposition Party

Poland, U.S.: Warsaw Downplays U.S. Cancellation of 4,000-Troop Deployment, Citing Wider Reassurances

Sudan: SAF Reportedly Launched Drone Strike Into Western Ethiopia in Late April

India: New Delhi Signs Defense and Energy Agreements With UAE

India: New Delhi Increases Retail Fuel Prices for First Time Since Iran War Began

Iraq: New Prime Minister Sworn In With a Partial Cabinet

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