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Politics

How do foreign adversaries view the upcoming U.S. general election, and what could that mean for the cyber threat landscape?

Essential Geopolitics: Cyber Concerns Ahead of the U.S. Election

Assessments

Ethiopia

Kenya

South Africa

Brazil

Egypt

Iran

United Arab Emirates

China

Indonesia

Russia

Moldova

India

Vehicles pass by a banner thanking outgoing Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and congratulating President-elect Prabowo Subianto and Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka ahead of their Oct. 20 inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Oct. 17, 2024.

Economics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Case in Kenya, an Inauguration in Indonesia

What will elections in Moldova and Georgia mean for the political and security landscape in Europe?

Essential Geopolitics: October Elections in Georgia and Moldova

What are the major issues on Subianto's policy agenda? 

Essential Geopolitics: What to Expect from Indonesia's New President

Israel

Palestinian Territories

People are reflected in a window displaying a poster of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in the Palestinian camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8, 2024, in Beirut, Lebanon. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Sinwar's assassination sets Hamas on the path of succession once more, opening the door to policy change and factionalism.

What Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar's Death Means for the Gaza War

Columns

On Geopolitics

Europe

App icons of social media platforms Twitter, Mastodon, Discord, Facebook, Reddit, Parler and Truth Social, are seen on an iPhone. 

Environment, Science & Technology

As mis- and disinformation proliferate online, government-led content moderation efforts threaten to do more harm than good.

Can Europe Solve the Puzzle of Content Moderation?

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Oct. 17, 2024

Lebanon

A general view shows a session at the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem on March 20, 2023. 

To keep all of its coalition members happy, Israel's government will avoid specifying its conditions for a victory in Gaza and Lebanon, setting the stage for open-ended military campaigns that could embolden extremist Jewish settlers.

The Risks of Israel's Open-Ended Policies in Gaza and Lebanon

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

Laos

Malaysia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Vietnam

Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (center) and other ASEAN leaders take part in the 2024 ASEAN summit in Vientiane on Oct. 9, 2024. 

The deals signed at the summit reflect an increasing focus on economic integration amid the Southeast Asian bloc's continued failure to find consensus on security issues.

Reviewing the 2024 ASEAN Summit

Snapshots

Canada

Indian policemen stand guard outside the entrance of the High Commission of Canada in New Delhi on Oct. 15, 2024. 

The dispute over India's alleged covert activities on Canadian soil will raise the risk of restricted consular services and protests in both countries, but major economic disruptions are unlikely.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Rift Hits a New Low

Taiwan

The sample of an Intel chip is displayed during Computex 2024 in Taipei on June 4, 2024. 

If Intel's bold new business strategy fails, it would serve a painful blow to U.S. semiconductor ambitions and likely cement the global dominance of Taiwan's TSMC.

The U.S. Semiconductor Industry's Strategic Challenges

A man watches a news program about Chinese military drills surrounding Taiwan on a giant screen outside a shopping mall in Beijing on Oct. 14, 2024.

China's latest military exercises lower the threshold for the still unlikely prospect of a Taiwan blockade and highlight Beijing's military coercive strategy toward Taipei through 2028.

Chinese Drills Around Taiwan Practice for a Blockade, Even if One Isn't Imminent

Latest

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends the BRICS Business Forum on Oct. 18, 2024, in Moscow, Russia. 

Despite host nation Russia's desire to speed progress on key issues like de-dollarization, internal disputes will likely prevent major breakthroughs that challenge the Western-led world order in the near term.

Russia's Goals for the BRICS Summit Will Likely Go Unrealized

Somalia

A Somali National Army soldier participates in a military drill in Mogadishu on March 19, 2024.

Egypt and Somalia's deepening security coordination risks triggering armed clashes with Ethiopia that could undermine regional counterterrorism efforts and inflame ethnic tensions.

The Horn of Africa Braces for Conflict as an Anti-Ethiopia Alliance Takes Shape

Ukraine

An illustration of Russian and Moldovan flags.

The near rejection of the vote on EU membership reflects the continued strength of pro-Russian political forces ahead of the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

The Close Results of Moldova's Referendum Raise Fears of a Pro-Russian Government

The headquarters of China's central bank is seen on May 4, 2021.

The new measures reflect growing concerns about China's economic outlook, but their scale falls short of what is needed to maintain 5% growth and stop deflation.

Faced With Slowed Growth and Deflation Risks, China Unveils a New Stimulus Package

Moldovan President Maya Sandu delivers a speech in Chisinau on Sept. 20, 2024, during a rally to launch her reelection campaign.

Arguably the biggest threat to Moldova's pro-European trajectory comes not from the two impending Oct. 20 votes themselves, but how the results impact the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

Previewing Moldova's Presidential Race and Referendum on EU Membership

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks during a rally supporting Sao Paulo mayoral candidate Guilherme Boulos (L) on Aug. 24 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. While Brazil's upcoming municipal elections will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, they will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

While the vote will not substantially change the status quo at the local level, it will kick-start the race for the presidency in 2026.

Brazil's Municipal Elections Will Leave the Status Quo Intact

A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The changes aim to threaten the West by making even more explicit Moscow's preexisting ability to use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian attacks. But the move won't stop Western efforts to maintain support for Ukraine.

With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine

Serbia

Kosovo

Authorities search a building in Mitrovica, northern Kosovo, on Sept. 29, 2023, after the killing of a police officer.

With the prospect of EU membership frozen, Belgrade and Pristina will be incentivized to ramp up their diplomatic feud and inflammatory rhetoric, raising the risk of violence between Kosovo's Serb and Albanian populations.

For Serbia and Kosovo, Stalled EU Membership Bids Will Disincentivize Reconciliation

The Garden City Terminal at the Port of Savannah in Savannah, Georgia, is seen on Nov. 12, 2021.

With the Sept. 30 deadline for a compromise fast approaching and no talks scheduled between the disputing parties, workers at East and Gulf coast ports appear likely to stage a strike that could severely disrupt U.S. exports and imports.

In the U.S., a Looming Port Strike Risks Disrupting Trade Ahead of the Holidays

On Security

Americas

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

Intelligence agencies are increasingly using third parties to do their dirty work abroad, raising the risk of miscalculations with potentially violent consequences.

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

Iraq

Syria

Yemen

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

U.S.-Iran Relations

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

Jordan

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

Germany

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

Energy

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

United Kingdom

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

The U.S. Treasury Department is finalizing its final rule to block certain outbound investments into China covering the artificial intelligence, semiconductor, microelectronics and quantum computing sectors, Reuters reported on Oct. 21.

China, U.S: Washington To Formally Ban Certain Investments Into AI, Semiconductors in China

India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced that India and China had reached an agreement for patrolling their disputed border that may lead to "disengagement and eventually a resolution of the issues that had arisen in these areas in 2020," though Beijing did not immediately comment on the announcement, AP reported on Oct. 21.

India, China: Countries Reach Border Patrolling Agreement in Interest of Disengagement

Iraqi Kurdistan held parliamentary elections for 100 lawmakers on Oct. 20, and Rudaw reported a 72% voter turnout rate the next day.

Iraq: KDP Wins Largest Bloc in Kurdistan Parliamentary Elections

Vietnam's National Assembly unanimously elected army Gen. Luong Cuong as the country's next president, making him the fourth president of Vietnam since 2023, government newspaper Bao Chinh Phu reported on Oct. 21. 

Vietnam: Army General Appointed President

The Chinese Foreign Ministry said it was "deeply shocked" by an Oct. 18 attack on its consulate in Mandalay, Myanmar, by rebel forces, the South China Morning Post reported on Oct. 21.

Myanmar: China Condemns Attack on Consulate Building in Mandalay, Demands Action

Mali

Niger

Algeria

An attack targeting Nigerien security forces in the northern town of Assamaka resulted in seven fatalities and five injuries, Afrique sur 7 reported on Oct. 20.

Niger: Attack on Town Near Algerian Border Kills Seven

Pakistan

Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari signed the 26th Constitutional Amendment Bill into law based on the recommendation of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif after Parliament approved it, Geo News reported on Oct. 21.

Pakistan: Constitutional Amendment Reduces Judicial Power

Incoming Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah on Jan. 27, 2023, in the Indian city of Srinagar in Kashmir. Jammu and Kashmir's new government will attempt to seek a restoration of full autonomy or at least statehood for the territory, but it will bump up against firm resistance from New Delhi, increasing the likelihood of violent unrest and Pakistani pressure.

Jammu and Kashmir's new government will attempt to seek a restoration of full autonomy or at least statehood for the territory, but it will bump up against firm resistance from New Delhi, increasing the likelihood of violent unrest and Pakistani pressure.

Frustration Will Build in Kashmir as India Ignores the Movement to Restore Autonomy

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

Saudi Arabia

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

Mozambique

Police officers in Mozambique's capital Maputo fired tear gas to disperse reporters interviewing leading opposition presidential candidate Venancio Mondlane and, separately, protesters marking the apparent politically motivated killings of two opposition figures on Oct. 19, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 21.

Mozambique: Post-Election Violence Escalates With Killings and Police Use of Tear Gas

Italy

By the end of 2025, the Italian government will present a state-backed company to build advanced nuclear reactors in the country, Reuters reported on Oct. 21, citing a statement by industry minister Adolfo Urso.

Italy: New State-Backed Company To Build Nuclear Reactors

The U.S. Biden administration dispatched special envoy Amos Hochstein -- who brokered the 2022 maritime agreement between Lebanon and Israel -- to Lebanon to present proposed Israeli conditions for de-escalation, Axios reported on Oct. 21.

Israel, Lebanon: Israel Proposes Maximalist Conditions for Diplomatic Settlement With Lebanon

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

The Close Results of Moldova's Referendum Raise Fears of a Pro-Russian Government

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

China, U.S: Washington To Formally Ban Certain Investments Into AI, Semiconductors in China

India, China: Countries Reach Border Patrolling Agreement in Interest of Disengagement

Iraq: KDP Wins Largest Bloc in Kurdistan Parliamentary Elections

Vietnam: Army General Appointed President

Myanmar: China Condemns Attack on Consulate Building in Mandalay, Demands Action

Niger: Attack on Town Near Algerian Border Kills Seven

Pakistan: Constitutional Amendment Reduces Judicial Power

Mozambique: Post-Election Violence Escalates With Killings and Police Use of Tear Gas

Italy: New State-Backed Company To Build Nuclear Reactors

Israel, Lebanon: Israel Proposes Maximalist Conditions for Diplomatic Settlement With Lebanon

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