Assessments

Kenya

Mexico

Israel

Palestinian Territories

China

A special session of the U.N. General Assembly is held on the Palestinian bid for full membership to the United Nations at the U.N. headquarters in New York City on May 10, 2024.

Economics

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Mexico Ratifies a Controversial Judicial Reform, the U.N. Votes on a Palestinian Resolution

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 12, 2024

Europe

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Italy

Russia

A Russian warship transits the Neva River in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia's risk tolerance for physical and cyber operations against Western targets appears to be increasing, raising the likelihood of more disruptive and/or violent attacks.

A More Brazen Russia Slowly Raises the Specter of a NATO Confrontation

Columns

On Geopolitics

Jordan

The Palestinian refugee camp of Bourj al-Barajneh on Aug. 8 in Beirut. Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

Hamas's ascendency toward leadership of the Palestinian national movement seems likely to portend new cycles of violence and new major military operations.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 2

Snapshots

Sub-Saharan Africa

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and leaders from African nations assemble for a group photo at the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in Beijing, China, on Sept. 5, 2024.

In a recent speech, Chinese President Xi laid out a $51 billion funding pledge for Africa, but fiscal and security constraints make a return to the heavy Chinese engagement of the mid-2010s highly unlikely.

China Commits to Long-Term Africa Ties, Even if Belt and Road Remains Muted

Iran

Iraq

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (R) and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Muhammad Ali Tamim on April 15 in Washington. Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence.

Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence.

Security in Iraq After a U.S. Withdrawal

U.S.-Iran Relations

Algeria

The Mexican Senate building in December 2019 in Mexico City. The Mexican Senate will begin considering a controversial judicial reform Sept. 8 that it plans to vote on by Sept. 11.

The Weekly Rundown: Judicial Reform in Mexico, An EU Competitiveness Report

Netherlands

Environment, Science & Technology

The United States and the West are likely to continue tightening export controls on China's semiconductor and other high-tech industries to close loopholes exploited by Chinese companies.

Tightened Western Tech Export Controls on China Signal More to Come

U.S.-China Relations

Lebanon

Syria

Yemen

People watch a televised speech of Lebanon's Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah commemorating the seventh-century killing of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson Imam Hussein, in Beirut, Lebanon, on July 17, 2024.

Despite their unified vision, groups within the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance are unlikely to sacrifice their strategic imperatives for one another, leaving them vulnerable to Israeli attacks.

Assessing the Strategic Imperatives of the Iranian-Led 'Axis of Resistance'

Incoming Prime Minister Michel Barnier (R) delivers a speech next to outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Sept. 5 in Paris. Barnier will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly.

France's new prime minister will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly. While the government will still have options to reduce the country's fiscal deficit and avoid a financial crisis, these would come at the cost of severe social unrest and political volatility.

France's New Prime Minister Will Struggle to Pass Laws and Avoid Financial Woes

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Cote d'Ivoire

Mali

Niger

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Libya

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

Latest

A digital illustration shows a binary code overlaying the Iranian flag.

In the second part of this series, we explore Iran's attempts to steal information, silence critics, and disrupt Western critical infrastructure and organizations via damaging cyberattacks and espionage campaigns.

Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 2

In the first of this two-part series, we explore Iran's attempts to sway the upcoming U.S. presidential election and heighten anti-Israel sentiments via online influence campaigns and cyberattacks.

Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 1

Ukraine

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine on June 15, 2024, in Lucerne, Switzerland. 

If elected U.S. president, Harris would likely initially maintain Biden's approach to Ukraine, but new White House officials, political pressure and events on the battlefield could change her administration's policies and strategy.

How Could a Harris Presidency Impact the War in Ukraine?

Ghana

A man holds cedis, the Ghanan currency, notes in Accra, Ghana, on Dec. 1, 2022.

Social Issues

Ghana's adherence to its IMF program will likely see it enjoy rebounding economic growth in 2025, even if the country's upcoming elections and reliance on commodity exports pose short- and long-term risks.

Despite Downside Risks, Ghana Is Poised for a Progressive Economic Recovery

Romania

The EU flag is projected on the facade of Romania's parliament building in Bucharest on the eve of Europe Day on May 8, 2024. 

Romania's financial risks are manageable in the short-to-medium term, but failure to reduce its fiscal and current account deficits could expose the country to external shocks.

The Financial Risks of Romania's Twin Deficits

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives for a working session on the second day of the G-7 summit in Schloss Elmau, Germany, on June 27, 2022. 

The trip is likely aimed at addressing backlash from the prime minister's recent visit to Russia, as India tries to mitigate Western criticism and reinforce its neutrality in the Ukraine conflict.

Modi's Upcoming Visit to Ukraine Reflects India's Balancing Act

Thailand

Former Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin addresses the media after the Thai Constitutional Court removed him from office Aug. 14 in Bangkok.

The removal of the Thai prime minister represents the military establishment's latest attempt to impose its influence on the government, which in the coming months and years will continue to constrain Thailand's economic growth while stoking social unrest.

The Thai Military Establishment Replaces Another Prime Minister

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio on Aug. 14 in Tokyo. The prime minister's resignation raises the prospect for change in domestic economic policy, such as cost-of-living issues, but major changes are unlikely regarding Japan's pursuit of military partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, and a national policy turn toward the left is not yet imminent.

The prime minister's resignation raises the prospect for change in domestic economic policy, such as cost-of-living issues, but major changes are unlikely regarding Japan's pursuit of military partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, and a national policy turn toward the left is not yet imminent.

In Japan, Kishida's Resignation Will Bring a New Face to the Same Old LDP

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

Growing domestic and international pressure may force Israel to walk back its demands, leaving Hamas to step into an influential role in Gaza.

The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

Energy

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

Ireland

Labour leader and Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (R) speaks with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (L) on July 07, 2024 in Edinburgh, Scotland. The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions. 

The July 4 general election laid bare evolving political dynamics in Scotland and Northern Ireland pushing the two nations' respective secessionist movements in different directions.

The New British Government and Scottish and Northern Irish Separatism

Turkey

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gives a press conference during the NATO Summit in Vilnius on July 12, 2023.

Erdogan's consolidation of power has made Turkish economic policies more beholden to the president's personal and political whims, and less to institutional checks and balances.

Turkey: A Case Study in Economic Policymaking Under Increased Political Centralization

Saudi Arabia

A man walks in front of the Maraya (Mirror), the world's largest mirrored building, in the desert canyon of Ashar Valley in Saudi Arabia's northwestern Al-Ula desert on Jan. 29, 2024.

Amid the rising costs of climate change, Saudi Arabia hopes an increasing reliance on market forces will keep its economy in the black.

Will Climate Change Singe Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030?

The Geopolitics of Water

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

Science & Technology

EU antitrust regulators are unlikely to order a breakup of Google over its anti-competitive tactics in the company's ad tech business as they had previously warned due to the complexity of such an order, Reuters reported Sept. 13.

Europe: EU Antitrust Regulators Unlikely To Order Google Ad Tech Break-Up

OpenAI announced on Sept. 12 the release of its new o1 model, codenamed Strawberry, which is intended to be able to reason logically through complex problems and provide step-by-step answers to users on how the problem was worked out.

Cyberspace: OpenAI Releases New Reason-Based Model

The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on Sept. 13 passed a motion to raise the retirement age for Chinese workers from 60 to 63 for men, 55 to 58 for women in white collar jobs, and 50 to 55 for women in blue collar jobs.

China: Country Raises Retirement Age, Pension Contributions

Tuareg rebels under the Strategic Framework for the Defense of the People of Azawad (CSP-DPA) on Sept. 11 claimed the alliance's first reported use of drones in targeting the Goundam camp in Mali's Timbuktu region, which houses Malian soldiers and Wagner alias Africa Corps forces, French Radio International reported the same day.

Mali: Tuareg Rebels Use Attack Drones in Escalating Conflict

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian concluded his first trip abroad since taking office in July with a trip to Iraq, which took place from Sept. 11-13 and included visits to Baghdad, Iraqi Kurdistan and Basra, Rudaw reported Sept. 13.

Iran: President Pezeshkian Finishes First Foreign Visit to Iraq

Maldives

China's central bank announced it signed a memorandum of understanding with the Maldivian Ministry of Economic Development and Trade to strengthen trade and investment by boosting local currency settlement for current account transactions and direct investment, Reuters reported Sept. 13.

Maldives, China: Countries Sign Finance Cooperation Deal Amid Fears of a Maldivian Default

South Africa

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the controversial Basic Education Laws Amendment (BELA) bill into law, but delayed the implementation of two controversial clauses relating to language policy and the powers of school governing bodies, Bloomberg reported Sept. 13.

South Africa: Ramaphosa Signs Education Bill Into Law, Delays Implementation of Controversial Provisions 

Senegal

Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye announced in an address to the nation that he was dissolving the National Assembly and calling snap legislative elections on Nov. 17, Radio France Internationale reported Sept.12. 

Senegal: President Dissolves National Assembly, Calls Snap Legislative Elections 

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

The White House announced on Sept. 13 that it would propose new trade rules denying de minimis exemptions for goods that would otherwise be subject to U.S. Section 301, Section 232, and Section 201 tariffs on Chinese goods, Reuters reported Sept. 13. 

China, U.S.: U.S. De Minimis Policy Shift Targets Chinese E-Commerce

Chile

Chile's Prosecutor's Office seized the cellphone of Supreme Court Justice Angela Vivanco, who is also facing an internal process that could culminate with her expulsion from the country's constitutional court, El Pais reported Sept. 12. 

Chile: Corruption Scandal Involving High-Profile Judges and Politicians Unlikely to Affect Elections

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

Iran's Escalating Cyber Strategy Against the West, Part 2

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Europe: EU Antitrust Regulators Unlikely To Order Google Ad Tech Break-Up

Cyberspace: OpenAI Releases New Reason-Based Model

China: Country Raises Retirement Age, Pension Contributions

Mali: Tuareg Rebels Use Attack Drones in Escalating Conflict

Iran: President Pezeshkian Finishes First Foreign Visit to Iraq

Maldives, China: Countries Sign Finance Cooperation Deal Amid Fears of a Maldivian Default

South Africa: Ramaphosa Signs Education Bill Into Law, Delays Implementation of Controversial Provisions

Senegal: President Dissolves National Assembly, Calls Snap Legislative Elections

China, U.S.: U.S. De Minimis Policy Shift Targets Chinese E-Commerce

Chile: Corruption Scandal Involving High-Profile Judges and Politicians Unlikely to Affect Elections

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