Assessments

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 16, 2026

Media

Sub-Saharan Africa

Iran

Podcasts

Economics

Politics

Which Sub-Saharan countries face the highest risk of protests and unrest in the coming months?

The Decision Advantage: The Outlook for Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

U.S.-Iran Relations

Snapshots

Ukraine

Russia

Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026, outside of Moscow, Russia.

Energy

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia will retain the ability to produce and export most of its oil, but sustained Ukrainian strikes will erode its refining capacity, exacerbate domestic fuel shortages and raise the risk of deeper production cuts.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

United Kingdom

Andy Burnham delivers a speech on June 29, 2026, in Manchester, England. 

As prime minister, Andy Burnham will likely maintain continuity on fiscal, foreign and defense policies within tight budget and market constraints, along with an incremental approach to EU relations.

Previewing Burnham's Premiership in the U.K.

Israel

Lebanon

Indonesia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Europe

France

ASEAN leaders hold hands for a group photo during the opening ceremony of the 48th ASEAN summit in Cebu, central Philippines on May 8, 2026. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Tensions Remain High, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet With Myanmar

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Germany

Spain

EU flags are displayed in the EU Council headquarters on July 9, 2026, in Brussels, Belgium.

While the European Union is unlikely to adopt the Spanish plan, it could drive an incremental expansion of common borrowing for strategic priorities like defense and industrial competitiveness.


Spain Broaches EU Taboo With Common Debt Proposal

A German flag flutters in front of the Reichstag building in Berlin, Germany. 

Global Trade

The package of reforms aims to revive productivity and lift Europe's largest economy out of its multi-year slump, though the package's limited nature and global trade headwinds will limit the impact in the medium term.


Germany's Labor-Market Reforms Could Lead to Modest Economic Improvements

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 9, 2026

Journalists surround French far-right National Rally leader Marine Le Pen (center) as she arrives with National Rally president Jordan Bardella (third from right) for a campaign rally in La Fleche, France, on July 8, 2026.

With the launch of Le Pen's campaign, the National Rally appears set to win France's 2027 presidential election, signaling a coming policy shift toward EU confrontation and weaker NATO integration, though various constraints would temper implementation.

As Le Pen Returns to the Race, What Would a Far-Right Presidency Look Like in France?

People pass a large banner depicting U.S. President Donald Trump with a target on his head, during funeral ceremonies for Iran's slain Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at the Grand Mosalla on July 5 in Tehran, Iran. 

Recent tit-for-tat strikes between the United States and Iran signal the rising risk of a return to high-intensity regional conflict following the June 17 memorandum of understanding.


U.S.-Iran Truce at Risk of Collapse Over Hormuz Control Dispute

Morocco

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Environment, Science & Technology

The state-owned OCP Group is accelerating domestic green ammonia projects and diversifying sulfur suppliers to secure its position as a dominant agricultural and diplomatic partner across sub-Saharan Africa.

Morocco, World's Leading Phosphate Exporter, Seeks To Mitigate Strategic Vulnerabilities

Latest

India

The U.S. and Indian flags adorn the Eisenhower Executive Office Building of the White House in Washington, D.C., on June 20, 2023.

While the ban could prompt the U.S. to lower its proposed Section 301 tariff on India from 12.5% to 10%, unresolved concerns over manufacturing overcapacity will sustain the risk of broader, sector-specific tariffs.

India Imposes Forced Labor Import Ban to Reduce U.S. Tariff Exposure

Albania

Montenegro

Moldova

A man checks the flags of EU countries in 2004. 

Recent negotiations saw Montenegro and Albania pushed into advanced legislative alignment while Brussels expanded accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.


The Progress, Prospects and Risks of EU Enlargement

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

Armed Yemeni supporters of the Iran-backed Houthi movement brandish their weapons during a protest against U.S. strikes on Iran in Sanaa on July 10, 2026. 

The attacks do not necessarily signal an immediate return to a full-scale war between the Saudis and the Houthis or a reignition of Yemen's civil conflict, but the likelihood of more frequent flare-ups in both theaters is increasing.

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis Exchange Airstrikes, Breaking Yearslong Unofficial Truce

Palestinian Territories

People gather by the rubble of destroyed buildings following an Israeli strike on an industrial area in Gaza City on July 12.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Hamas will likely continue to reject full disarmament in the hope that a more moderate Israeli government will come to power following elections in the fall.


Unfeasible Plans for Gaza Governance Hinder Progress of U.S-Backed Ceasefire 

Sudan

United Arab Emirates

Sudan's de facto leader and army chief, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, waves to spectators after attending a soccer match at Kober Stadium in Khartoum on May 15, 2026.

The outbreak of the Iran war has redirected Western and Arab diplomatic attention away from Sudan, worsening the country's long-running civil war.

Humanitarian Disaster Looms in Sudan as RSF Prepares New Offensive

Oman

Maps4media-processed Sentinel-2 satellite imagery shows a broad overview of the Strait of Hormuz on June 16, 2026.

U.S.-Iran talks will face increasingly large obstacles as negotiators approach more contentious topics, namely Iran's nuclear program.

For the U.S. and Iran, the Hardest Negotiations Lie Ahead

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer poses with his wife Victoria at the door to 10 Downing Street after making a statement on his future outside 10 Downing Street on the morning of June 22, 2026, in London. 

While a swift leadership transition by mid-July could restore near-term political stability, investors will focus on whether Prime Minister Keir Starmer's successor will be able to successfully balance party unity with fiscal discipline.


Burnham Premiership Could Stabilize U.K. Politics, But Markets Remain Cautious

Columns

On Geopolitics

China

Chinese President Xi Jinping (center) and Premier Li Qiang attend a plenary session of China's National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People on March 9, 2026, in Beijing, China.

Social Issues

Beijing will prioritize employment and social stability over rapid economic growth in the coming years, pressuring businesses to boost hiring and expand benefits amid demographic pressures, rising youth unemployment and AI-related job disruptions.

China Plans To Stabilize Employment in an Age of Change

The U.S. Treasury Department building in Washington, D.C.

The legal and geographical constraints of Washington's jurisdiction make freezing the assets of countries like Iran a far more flexible and effective diplomatic tool than outright seizure. 

American Financial Power: Freezing vs. Seizing Other Countries' Foreign Assets

A 3D satellite-style visualization of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

As the Iran war drags on, the Strait of Hormuz is increasingly likely to remain closed for an extended period.

Will the Strait of Hormuz Remain Closed Until 2027?

Weaponizing raw material exports can provide short-term political leverage, but it often pushes the targeted nations to permanently restructure their trade relationships to reduce dependencies.

The Historical Lessons of Global Commodity Weaponization

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Demographic decline, driven by falling fertility rates worldwide, is likely irreversible but will also increasingly differentiate countries based on their ability to adapt through sound immigration, labor, technological and fiscal policies.

Adapting to Demographic Decline: Policy Tradeoffs and Global Divergences

As competition for natural resources and critical raw materials intensifies, companies -- not just countries -- must be more mindful of risks in their physical supply chains.

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources: An Introduction

Syria

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Ghana

Ghana's Cabinet approved amendments to the 2006 Minerals and Mining Act for submission to Parliament as part of efforts to strengthen oversight of the mining sector, increase state revenues, expand local participation and curb illegal mining, Reuters reported on July 15.

Ghana: Government Moves To Tighten Mining Oversight and Increase State Control

Brazil

The United States announced 25% tariffs on some Brazilian goods on July 15 following the conclusion of a Section 301 investigation, Folha de S.Paulo reported the same day.

U.S., Brazil: U.S. Imposes 25% Tariffs on Brazil Following Section 301 Investigation

Iranian officials have reportedly asked Yemen's Houthi rebels to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait if the United States hits an Iranian power plant, Reuters reported on July 16.

U.S., Iran: U.S. Signals Escalation, Iran Asks Houthis To Stand Ready

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Science & Technology

Travel restrictions to the Democratic Republic of the Congo linked to the ongoing Ebola outbreak in the country's northeastern region are disrupting critical minerals cooperation between the United States and Congo, Reuters reported on July 15, based on conversations with one diplomatic and two consulting sources.

Congo: Reuters Reports Ebola Outbreak Disrupting U.S.-Congo Mineral Cooperation, Dealmaking

Pakistan

Pakistan's state minister for interior said authorities have bolstered security for the Saindak Copper-Gold Project, Pakistan's largest Chinese-operated copper and gold mine, after Saindak Metals Ltd. expressed concerns with local security conditions in the restive Balochistan province, Reuters reported on July 15.

Pakistan: Authorities Bolster Security for Mining Project Amid Security Concerns

India and the United Kingdom's Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement took effect on July 15 and eliminated British tariffs on 99% of Indian exports, benefiting sectors such as processed foods, marine products, engineering goods, textiles, leather, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and gems and jewelry, Reuters reported the same day.

India, U.K.: Trade Deal Takes Effect

Australia

Cyber

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese established an Office of AI within the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet and unveiled a national framework for regulating artificial intelligence, with the intention of introducing implementation legislation in early 2027, the Australian Financial Review reported on July 15.

Australia: Canberra Moves To Centralize AI Governance, Regulate Data Centers

A statement from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said, "The export of oil and gas from the region will be either for everyone or for no one" after the United States reimposed a blockade on Iranian ports on July 14, AP reported on July 15.

U.S., Iran: Iran Threatens Wider Disruptions to Regional Energy Exports Following U.S. Blockade

Somalia

Egypt

Iraq

Libya

Turkey

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Ukraine and the European Union signed a deal to establish joint drone projects and expand production by combining Ukrainian battlefield expertise with European financing and industrial capacity, Reuters reported on July 15.

Ukraine, EU: Drone Deal Will Expand Production and Scale Combat-Tested Technology

Italy

Italy's Chamber of Deputies rejected by a single vote, 188 to 187, an amendment backed by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy party to reintroduce preference votes into the coalition's electoral reform, with around 30 coalition lawmakers apparently voting against in a secret ballot requested by the opposition, Il Sole 24 Ore reported on July 14.

Italy: Meloni's Electoral Reform Suffers Setback With One-Vote Amendment Defeat

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

India Imposes Forced Labor Import Ban to Reduce U.S. Tariff Exposure

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ghana: Government Moves To Tighten Mining Oversight and Increase State Control

U.S., Brazil: U.S. Imposes 25% Tariffs on Brazil Following Section 301 Investigation

U.S., Iran: U.S. Signals Escalation, Iran Asks Houthis To Stand Ready

Congo: Reuters Reports Ebola Outbreak Disrupting U.S.-Congo Mineral Cooperation, Dealmaking

Pakistan: Authorities Bolster Security for Mining Project Amid Security Concerns

India, U.K.: Trade Deal Takes Effect

Australia: Canberra Moves To Centralize AI Governance, Regulate Data Centers

U.S., Iran: Iran Threatens Wider Disruptions to Regional Energy Exports Following U.S. Blockade

Ukraine, EU: Drone Deal Will Expand Production and Scale Combat-Tested Technology

Italy: Meloni's Electoral Reform Suffers Setback With One-Vote Amendment Defeat

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