ASSESSMENTS

Can Ethiopia and Eritrea Keep the Peace, or Will History Repeat Itself?

Feb 5, 2019 | 10:00 GMT

The long-closed border between Ethiopia and Eritrea is open, and both countries are seeing possible economic and security benefits bloom.

Eritrean soldiers wait in a line on Sept. 11, 2018 to cross the border to attend the border reopening ceremony with Ethiopians as two land border crossings between Ethiopia and Eritrea were reopened for the first time in 20 years in Serha, Eritrea.

(STRINGER/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Despite clear signs that peace has benefited both countries' security and investment profiles, Ethiopia and Eritrea’s new agreement risks faltering amid ongoing trade difficulties and currency imbalances.
Ethiopian investors will likely be shut out from owning property or opening up large businesses in Eritrea, which has shown no signs of moving toward a political liberalization since the detente.
Continued animosity between Eritrea’s leadership and Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region could threaten the long-term prospects for the renewed relationship.

After a costly war in 1998 and two subsequent decades of animosity, Eritrea and Ethiopia formally agreed to settle their differences with a historic truce in September 2018. The former enemies have since basked in the peace, with their improved relations opening the door for increased trade and investment and new transport routes. But trade and security problems loom on the horizon -- carrying the risk of once again souring relations between the Horn of Africa neighbors....

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