Can Venezuela's Maduro Afford to Hold Elections?

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is facing a major political dilemma. He must decide whether he can afford to hold legislative elections or delay them until his low public approval ratings recover. The country's deteriorating financial situation threatens to hurt support for the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). If the party loses its majority in the legislature, the opposition could gain more control over budgetary and political decisions, even opening the possibility of a recall effort against Maduro in 2016.

Delaying or suspending the elections, however, presents even more risk for Maduro and his party. Venezuela's economy is unlikely to recover anytime soon, so dissatisfaction among voters is likely to increase as time goes on. The later an election is held, the worse the PSUV would likely perform. Canceling elections could erode Maduro's support among PSUV members who want to run for office while giving the opposition a focal point to rally around, potentially provoking a crisis even sooner. Between the two options, the Maduro government is indicating that it will hold the elections sooner rather than later. However, it is also forming a backup plan should it need to take more drastic measures to maintain power.