China's third round of large-scale military drills around Taiwan in two years will likely pose modest disruptions to regional shipping, especially if the drills are extended, and a low-level risk of military incidents, though wider conflict remains highly unlikely. The drills could also be followed by larger ones later this year in the likely event the United States steps up support for Taiwan. On May 23, the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) began what it has labeled as the Joint Sword 2024A drills in waters on all sides of Taiwan. The drills, which are currently scheduled to last for two days, are the largest China has held around Taiwan since April 2023, when it conducted drills in response to then-Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the United States, where she met with then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. The current drills are taking place in five maritime areas that are more than...
