With their population growth flatlining, Gulf states will double down on narrow, specialized militaries supplanted by foreign forces to maintain their current social-military contract. But this will make them vulnerable to military supply chain disruptions and entanglement with their foreign protectors' strategies, while leaving them ill-equipped to offset a U.S. retrenchment or the collapse of Iran's government. The Iran war has tested the long-standing military-social contract in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, but there remains little sign of a popular or political surge in nationalist sentiment that would alter the long-standing culture of casualty aversion in their military establishments. Even in the face of direct Iranian attacks on their countries, most Gulf citizens preferred to remain on the defensive, with no prominent calls in the media, in public protest or online for GCC states to take the fight directly to Iran or participate in potential ground invasions of the country....
