ASSESSMENTS

To Escape Russia's Orbit, Armenia and Azerbaijan Turn to Each Other -- and the West

Feb 26, 2026 | 23:09 GMT

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) shakes hands with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace at the Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace on Feb. 19, 2026, in Washington, D.C.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) shakes hands with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace at the Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace on Feb. 19, 2026, in Washington, D.C.

(Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)

Armenia and Azerbaijan will seek to capitalize on momentum toward a final peace treaty amid expanding Western engagement to fill the vacuum left by a weakened Russia, but this geopolitical realignment will be tested by Moscow's influence operations ahead of elections in Armenia and Iran's competing geopolitical interests. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visited Armenia and Azerbaijan on Feb. 9-11, becoming the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit the region since 2008. The trip sought to capitalize on diplomatic momentum generated by the August 2025 White House summit, where U.S. President Donald Trump convened the two nations' leaders to sign a draft peace agreement. In Yerevan, Vance met Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to announce the conclusion of negotiations on a U.S.-Armenia civil nuclear cooperation agreement, establishing a legal framework for the construction of a new nuclear power plant using U.S. technology to replace the aging Metsamor nuclear power plant. He...

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