ASSESSMENTS

Evaluating the Prospects of Turkey-Syria Normalization

Jul 25, 2024 | 17:23 GMT

Turkish and Syrian flags wave above Syria's al-Salameh border crossing with Turkey on Aug. 27, 2023.
Turkish and Syrian flags wave above Syria's al-Salameh border crossing with Turkey on Aug. 27, 2023.

(BAKR ALKASEM/AFP via Getty Images)

Turkey and Syria will make progress toward restoring their diplomatic and economic ties in the near term, but competing security imperatives will make full-scale normalization difficult, leaving lingering tensions between the two countries that might flare into violence. Turkey and Syria are showing a willingness to reestablish diplomatic relations, indicating they will soon join the broader regional trend of normalizing ties in the wake of Syria's civil war. On July 7, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey might soon extend an invitation to Syrian President Bashar al Assad to visit Turkey, which would be the first such visit since the civil war began in 2011, during which Turkey supported rebels set on overthrowing al Assad's government. Erdogan emphasized that such a visit would have wider aims and that Turkey hoped to restore ties with Syria to levels seen before the war. Meanwhile, al Assad said on July 15 that...

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