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The Future of Hamas in Gaza: Gauging Political Resilience, Part 1

Sep 2, 2024 | 14:04 GMT

Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.
Smoke billows following an Israeli strike in Nuseirat in the central Gaza Strip on Aug. 11, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

(Photo by EYAD BABA/AFP via Getty Images)

Nearly a year into the Israel-Hamas war, a definitive resolution remains out of reach. However, as the anniversary of Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel approaches, the goals of the two sides have grown clearer. Israel wants a maximalist military and political victory that ends Hamas as an armed and governing force in Gaza; Hamas wants to not only survive this campaign but use that victory to enter the Palestine Liberation Organization, or PLO, where it would be notably closer to leading the Palestinian cause overall. Both sides' ability to achieve their goals will be contingent upon whether or not their political systems can outlast the pressures weighing them down. And with Israel being a democracy more susceptible to such pressures, it appears increasingly likely that it will be Israel, not Hamas, that will be forced to moderate its aspirations. ...

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