In response to Iran's missile barrage, Israel will most likely attack a small number of Iranian targets, but there is a chance Israel will pursue more escalatory options -- including numerically higher and geographically wider attacks, or even an ongoing aerial campaign -- which would likely invite further Iranian attacks that lower the threshold to more frequent direct conflict. On Oct. 1, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched around 180 ballistic missiles toward Israel, including the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv, in what the IRGC said was retaliation for the killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on Sept. 27, and an Iranian general who was killed alongside Nasrallah. The strikes appear to have had a relatively limited impact on Israel itself, with medics so far reporting only two wounded. It also appears the missiles did not strike major...
