ASSESSMENTS

Gauging the Regional Fallout From Escalating Israel-Hezbollah Clashes

Jun 28, 2024 | 14:22 GMT

An Israeli tank moves into position during a drill in the annexed Golan Heights on Nov. 9, 2023, amid increasing cross-border tensions between Hezbollah and Israel as fighting continues in Israel's south with Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.
An Israeli tank moves into position during a drill in the annexed Golan Heights on Nov. 9, 2023, amid increasing cross-border tensions between Hezbollah and Israel as fighting continues in Israel's south with Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.

(Photo by JALAA MAREY/AFP via Getty Images)

In the likely event of a limited Israeli incursion into Lebanon, Iran's regional proxies would likely provide mostly symbolic support for Hezbollah, reducing the risk of a regional war. However, should Israel undertake a broader campaign in Lebanon, the risk of a regional war -- potentially involving direct participation from the United States and Iran -- would increase. In recent weeks, U.S. political and military officials have cautioned Israel against starting an expansive military offensive against Lebanon's Iranian-backed militant and political group Hezbollah, warning that Iran and its proxies could be drawn into the conflict and that the United States would not be able to defend Israel. The U.S. warnings come amid Hezbollah and Israel's recent escalations at the Israel-Lebanon border and their leaders' increasingly aggressive rhetoric threatening war. ...

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