ASSESSMENTS

Gaza Ceasefire Hangs in Balance as Netanyahu Contemplates Political Survival

Oct 27, 2025 | 15:07 GMT

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participates in a state memorial ceremony for the fallen soldiers of the two-year Gaza war at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Oct. 16, 2025.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participates in a state memorial ceremony for the fallen soldiers of the two-year Gaza war at the Mount Herzl military cemetery in Jerusalem on Oct. 16, 2025.

(ALEX KOLOMOISKY/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is unlikely to call early elections and will likely increase military pressure on Hamas in Gaza in an effort to reduce the likelihood of being unseated by a right-wing anti-Netanyahu coalition led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett. Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party has seen an uptick in support following the Oct. 8 announcement of the first phase of a Hamas-Israel ceasefire and the Oct. 13 release of all 20 remaining living hostages. Prior to the ceasefire agreement, most polls conducted in the second half of September showed Likud winning around 25 seats in the 120-seat Knesset if parliamentary elections due by October 2026 were conducted now. More recently, according to a poll published on Oct. 16 by Zman Yisrael, Likud would win 34 seats and its likely coalition partners a further 25, bringing the total to 59 -- just short of the 61 needed to...

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