ASSESSMENTS

The Geopolitics of Disease

Dec 16, 2015 | 18:09 GMT

With the right tools and the proper perspective, analysts can better predict where and how the next outbreak may occur.

(JUNIOR D.KANNAH/AFP/Getty Images)

Forecast Highlights

  • Persistent factors that contribute to outbreaks, including migration, population density, economic hardship, climate and conflict, will continue to create a breeding ground for epidemics and endemic disease.
  • Countries in the Caribbean and South and Central America will remain vulnerable to epidemics of mosquito-borne diseases. Their economic impact will compound pre-existing political, economic and social stressors in these regions.
  • Unrest in Ukraine and a surge of refugees from the war-torn Middle East will put Southern, Central and Eastern Europe at risk for localized disease outbreaks. While the spread of most potential pathogens will likely be limited, political responses to them could be far-reaching.

 

The threat of widespread disease outbreaks in Europe stemming from refugee flows is very low, but the mere possibility of an epidemic caused by immigration patterns could fuel nationalistic tendencies. Meanwhile, the threat of disease looms larger in Latin America, but from a very different source: mosquitoes....

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