The 12-day war with Israel significantly degraded Iran's capabilities through personnel losses and damage to critical infrastructure and military assets, particularly its ballistic missile arsenal. And the high risk of renewed conflict, stemming from unresolved underlying causes, threatens further potential losses for Iran. Moreover, Tehran's failure to mount a cohesive and effective initial defense against Israel's coordinated strikes has severely dented perceptions of Iranian military prowess, potentially eroding deterrence and emboldening regional rivals and adversaries alike. Iran's allies and proxies, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to militias across Iraq and Yemen, may also find themselves strategically constrained, forced to recalibrate their reliance on Iran's previously dependable military and financial support. Consequently, the balance of power across the Middle East may shift, at least temporarily, away from Iranian interests, creating strategic openings for regional and global actors to expand their influence, exploit vulnerabilities, or negotiate favorable arrangements amid Iran's diminished position....
