ASSESSMENTS

India Guards Against China's Encroaching Shadow

Nov 9, 2018 | 09:00 GMT

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sept. 4, 2016, in Hangzhou, China.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Sept. 4, 2016, in Hangzhou, China. Beijing's economic expansion into South Asia poses a major strategic challenge for India as it seeks to maintain its regional dominance against its northern rival.

(WANG ZHOU - Pool/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • India and China's recalibration will endure in 2019 as New Delhi focuses on national elections and China focuses on managing pressure from the United States.
  • China's support for Pakistan, its military buildup along its periphery and its dispute with India over their border will continue to drive the Sino-Indian rivalry in 2019.
  • India will seek to deepen its influence by emphasizing its engagements on varying levels with its neighboring states in South Asia and the Indian Ocean.

India is the dominant country in South Asia, accounting for the majority of the region's landmass (68 percent), population (75 percent) and economic output (79 percent). These disparities have informed India's status as South Asia's reigning hegemon in the decades since it gained independence from the British Empire in 1947. Today, however, India's dominance is being challenged by China. Beijing's economic expansion into South Asia under its vast Belt and Road Initiative is meeting the infrastructure demands of India's neighboring countries and providing them with access to deep pools of capital in a way that New Delhi cannot match. For emerging markets such as Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and the Maldives, Chinese-funded projects are too enticing to pass up, even if they come with steep price tags that add to the debt burdens of these developing countries. Still, the infrastructure race isn't India's only challenge: China is boosting its military responsiveness...

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