ASSESSMENTS

Japan's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Jul 9, 2025 | 16:35 GMT

Leaders of eight political parties pose before a debate at the Japan National Press Club on July 2, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan. From left to right are Sanseito Secretary General Sohei Kamiya, Japanese Communist Party Chairperson Tomoko Tamura, Komeito Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito, Constitutional Democratic Party President Yoshihiko Noda, Japan's Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba, Governor of Osaka and Japan Innovation Party Co-Representative Hirofumi Yoshimura, Democratic
Leaders of eight political parties pose before a debate at the Japan National Press Club on July 2, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan. From left to right are Sanseito Secretary General Sohei Kamiya, Japanese Communist Party Chairperson Tomoko Tamura, Komeito Chief Representative Tetsuo Saito, Constitutional Democratic Party President Yoshihiko Noda, Japan's Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba, Governor of Osaka and Japan Innovation Party Co-Representative Hirofumi Yoshimura, Democratic Party for the People Representative Yuichiro Tamaki and Reiwa Shinsengumi President Taro Yamamoto.

(Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images)

Japan will hold elections for 125 of the 248 members of the House of Councilors -- commonly referred to as the upper house of Japan's Diet -- on July 20. The upper house is usually weaker than Japan's lower house, the House of Representatives, as the latter has final say on the budget and prime minister selection. However, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, or LDP, and its coalition partner Komeito only have a minority government in the lower house, making the upper house more powerful and its elections more important than usual, as it is even harder for the lower house to reach the supermajority necessary to override upper house rejections of ordinary (non-budget) bills. The election will also influence whether Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba remains in office and his LDP maintains leadership over the Diet....

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