Pledges to reopen the Strait of Hormuz will support U.S.-Iran diplomatic momentum and reduce near-term escalation risks, but shipping activity will recover only gradually amid persistent tensions, with a continued risk of disruption until a durable agreement is reached. On April 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared that the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open" as part of the ongoing U.S.-Iran ceasefire, sparking a market rally and a plunge in global oil prices. However, Iranian sources later clarified that Iran would only allow ships belonging to non-hostile nations to transit the strait along preapproved routes in coordination with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with many ships turning back after attempts to cross the same day. U.S. President Donald Trump subsequently also proclaimed the strait was fully open for passage, but noted that the United States would sustain its separate blockade targeting Iran until it reached a permanent deal...
