As pre-election political calculations drive Turkey to slow its normalization with Armenia, Azerbaijan will be emboldened to increase pressure against Armenia in both peace talks and on the battlefield, which could raise the specter of another major conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. On May 3, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced that Turkey had closed its airspace to Armenian flights after Armenia opened a new monument in its capital commemorating a program to assassinate Ottoman and Turkish officials in retaliation for the Armenian genocide of 1915-16. The announcement came just days after an Armenian airline, Flyone Armenia, said it was denied entry to Turkish airspace without explanation. The diplomatic rift over the monument comes amid recent efforts by Turkey and Armenia to normalize their ties after decades of estrangement, which saw flights between the two countries resume in 2022 for the first time in two years....
