Somalia: The Impending Offensive on Kismayo

An 825-member assembly began a nine-day conference in Mogadishu on July 25 to ratify a new Somali Constitution, which would end the mandate of the ruling Transitional Federal Government. The assembly precedes two important events: an Aug. 20 presidential election, culminating in the formation of a new government; and a military offensive on the city of Kismayo, a haven for the transnationalist faction of Somali militant group al Shabaab.

The success of any new Somali government depends largely on the success of the offensive. Indeed, the new government will attain legitimacy only if it can limit al Shabaab activity and territorial control throughout the country. To eliminate al Shabaab, the new administration must first dismantle the militant group's power base in southern Somalia, most notably in Kismayo, which harbors al Shabaab leaders and funds its militant operations with taxes levied at the city's ports. However, with the rainy season rapidly approaching, the speed with which the government must conduct the offensive could compromise the operation's success.