A political crisis in Lesotho has left the parliament paralyzed as the military mobilizes in the capital of Maseru. Although the fallout from a change of government, even a potential coup, would be largely contained in Lesotho itself, South Africa has a vested interest in maintaining stability in the landlocked country. The need to prevent any disruption to South Africa's water supply could prompt President Jacob Zuma to intervene and restore order in Lesotho, as his country did in 1998.
South Africa's main interest is avoiding a security breakdown that would jeopardize its water supplies. Nearly a quarter of the country's naturally available water originates in Lesotho, which receives 60 percent more rain than South Africa. The water is funneled into South Africa through a system of reservoirs, dams and transport tunnels, providing critical supplies for the population as well as the mining industry. Locations that would suffer the most from a decreased water supply are the extensive coal and platinum mining areas as well as Johannesburg and Pretoria.
Any fighting in Lesotho that poses a physical threat to the water transfer system, or risks displacing populations across the border, is of great concern for South Africa. While South Africa prefers stability through negotiation, any serious threat of destabilization or threat to critical infrastructure will prompt a military response. Any use of force would be short lived, however, and South Africa would be expected to withdraw its forces once the political situation normalizes and order is restored.
