ASSESSMENTS

Strategic Risks and Political Hurdles for a U.S. Ground War in Iran

Mar 12, 2026 | 19:55 GMT

Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, Iran, on March 7, 2026.
Smoke and flames rise at the site of airstrikes on an oil depot in Tehran, Iran, on March 7, 2026.

(Sasan / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)

In an extended conflict with Iran, the United States could escalate by deploying ground forces ranging from limited commando raids to a full-scale invasion. But while small special operations missions are the most viable option, larger incursions or regime-change operations would face severe logistical, political and strategic risks and remain unlikely without a major shift in regional and U.S. domestic support. With the air war unlikely to result in a decisive victory for either side, the United States has threatened to further escalate with ground operations inside Iran, as President Donald Trump has repeatedly said he does not want to take any options off the table. A ground operation could run the gamut, from a limited commando raid with narrow and specific objectives with a few dozen forces, to an incursion with hundreds of thousands of soldiers and limited regional diplomatic buy-in, to a full-scale invasion to topple the regime,...

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