Thailand: The Military Inherits the Impasse

Thailand's military takeover after political negotiations collapsed May 22 reinforced a well-established pattern in the country: When rival Thai political factions reach an impasse that paralyzes the government, the Royal Thai Army — typically acting in the name of the monarchy — has the ability to restore order and reset the country's political framework. However, while military coups have been a regular feature of Thai politics for much of the past century, the impending royal succession heightens the uncertainty surrounding the current takeover.

The military has indicated that it will not rush to give up power, possibly waiting until after the impending royal succession, though it will likely install a military-backed interim government. Civilian rule will likely not be restored until the Thai Constitution is revised and at least a temporary truce is reached between the country's competing stakeholders. Until then, the military will need to contain mounting regional opposition in rural parts of the country. It will also need to manage an economy that is poised to fall into recession. Most important, the military will have to find a way to broker a more lasting political settlement that eases the country's deep and enduring divisions.