The Iran war will increase demand for Russian energy, but the resulting revenue gains will likely remain temporary and offset by other costs; still, especially in the case of a protracted conflict in the Middle East, weaker sanctions enforcement and higher oil prices will buoy Moscow's ability to sustain its war in Ukraine for longer. To mitigate energy market shocks caused by the Iran war, the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil. On March 12, the White House expanded a March 4 waiver, initially limited to India, authorizing a 30-day license for the delivery and sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products already loaded onto vessels at sea. A week later, on March 19, this relief was expanded to cover petroleum products in addition to crude, allowing the sale of existing tanker cargoes to nearly all countries. The two U.S. sanction waivers,...
