ASSESSMENTS

What Russia's Courtship of Kazakhstan Says About the Shifting Balance of Power in Eurasia

Nov 18, 2025 | 22:21 GMT

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev address participants of the 21st Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum via a video link during their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on Nov. 12, 2025.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev address participants of the 21st Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum via a video link during their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on Nov. 12, 2025.

(VYACHESLAV PROKOFYEV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)

The deepening strategic alignment between Russia and Kazakhstan will reinforce the structural asymmetry in their relations, limit Astana's ability to balance between Moscow and the West, and heighten Kazakhstan's exposure to economic and political coercion from the Kremlin as regional instability grows. On Nov. 11-12, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev made a state visit to Russia, which culminated in the signing of a Declaration on the Transition of Bilateral Relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and Allied Relations -- a largely symbolic formalization of the two countries' already deep ties. The document reaffirms Moscow and Astana's commitment to an "indivisible Eurasian security architecture" and to expanded cooperation in defense, nuclear energy and transport connectivity. Although this was the fourth in-person meeting between Tokayev and Russian President Vladimir Putin this year alone, it was the first state visit of Tokayev's tenure. Conducted with full ceremonial protocol, Putin extended personal gestures of esteem,...

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