ASSESSMENTS

Why the Central American Migrant Caravan Matters

Oct 25, 2018 | 06:00 GMT

Central American migrants near Huixtla in the Mexican state of Chiapas head toward the United States more than 1,000 miles away on Oct. 24.

Thousands of Central American migrants traveling through Mexico to the United States is fodder for political rhetoric as Americans prepare to vote in midterm congressional elections on Nov. 6, but the migrant caravan's significance goes beyond the U.S. debate over illegal immigration.

(JOHAN ORDONEZ/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Thousands of Honduran migrants planning to request asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border will put the Honduran government in a difficult political situation with the White House.
  • The Honduran political opposition may continue encouraging migrant groups to emigrate northward as a political tool to pressure the administration of Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez.
  • The White House will keep threatening to cut foreign assistance to Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador. However, the power to reduce or eliminate assistance rests with Congress, which will be reluctant to do so.
  • Even if Congress agrees to major reductions in foreign aid, such a move could backfire for the Trump administration by spurring Central American governments to cozy up to China diplomatically in search of foreign assistance.

An estimated 7,000 Central American migrants making their way through Mexico toward the United States have become a prominent headline in the daily news cycle. The Central Americans intend to request asylum when they finally reach the U.S. border with Mexico, most likely in Texas' Rio Grande Valley. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to cut assistance to Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador, the three countries where most of the migrants come from. With U.S. midterm congressional elections less than two weeks away, it's no surprise that Trump, who made securing the U.S.-Mexico border a central part of his administration, has seized on the migrant caravan to rally his political base. But the caravan's significance stretches beyond Trump's desire to shore up electoral support or his administration's attempts to reduce illegal immigration....

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