One year after the Feb. 1 military coup, Myanmar remains in the grips of a stalemated and increasingly deadly civil conflict that will continue to rattle its economy throughout 2022. Western companies will steer clear of the country amid the ongoing turmoil, though the wavering leadership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) may tempt East Asian businesses to resume activities. Violence looks set to escalate in border regions and key interior cities in Myanmar as public support persists for the resistance’s National Unity Government, along with the loosely affiliated People’s Defense Force (PDF) guerrilla groups and various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs). Moreover, it seems likely that 2022 will unfold similarly to 2021, with more human rights abuses and outflows of Myanmar refugees into broader Asia. The junta seems unable to both quell resistance groups and revive legitimate general elections, the results of which originally spurred the military to...
