Ecuador

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Ecuador's National Electoral Council released results indicating that President Daniel Noboa won reelection with 55.8% of the vote in the country's April 13 presidential runoff election, defeating opposition candidate Luisa Gonzalez, who received 44% of the vote.

Ecuador: Incumbent Wins Reelection in Presidential Runoff Vote

Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa alleged during an interview that "irregularities" during the Feb. 9 general election led him to beat opposition candidate Luisa Gonzalez by a smaller margin than expected, requiring a run-off election in April, Radio Centro reported on Feb. 11. 

Ecuador: Incumbent President Noboa Claims Irregularities in Election First Round

Incumbent President Daniel Noboa came in first in the first round of Ecuador's presidential election on Feb. 9 with 44.37% of the vote, only a slight majority from opposition candidate Luisa Gonzalez of the left-wing Citizen Revolution Movement, who received 43.86% of the vote, The New York Times reported on Feb. 10.

Ecuador: Incumbent and Leftist Opposition Candidate Progress to Presidential Runoff

A judge in Ecuador accepted a court filing on Dec. 24 alleging that the four minors who recently went missing in Guayaquil were forcibly disappeared after being detained by soldiers on Dec. 8, Prensa Latina reported Dec. 26. 

Ecuador: Judge Orders Investigation Into Military's Involvement in Missing Minors Incident

Energy

Military & Security

Ecuador's Labor Ministry suspended Vice President Veronica Abad for 150 days over claims that she abandoned her duties by arriving for an appointment in Turkey in September five days late, El Pais reported on Nov. 11. 

Ecuador: Vice President's Suspension Indicates Growing Political Instability Ahead of Election

Ecuador will deploy 288 police officers to protect 32 candidates running for president and vice president in the country's Feb. 9, 2025, general election, Deutsche Welle reported on Oct. 21.

Ecuador: Police Detachment Unlikely To Prevent Political Violence Ahead of Election

Colombia

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Colombia's Mines and Energy Ministry suspended electricity exports to Ecuador amid low rainfall and hydroelectric reservoir levels, El Colombiano reported on Sept. 30.

Colombia, Ecuador: Drought-Related Energy Crisis Will Pose Further Operational Risks

cuador has started a series of scheduled overnight blackouts to save electricity and carry out maintenance work amid the most severe drought in 60 years, DW reported on Sept. 19. 

Ecuador: Power Rationing to Pose Operational and Security Challenges 

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Chinese President Xi Jinping attends the closing session of the National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing, China, on March 11, 2025. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Xi Tours Southeast Asia, Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks Begin

The outcome of Ecuador's presidential run-off will determine the risk of gridlock, social spending levels, debt risks and efforts to combat violent crime; as both candidates have left the door open to disputing the outcome, a political crisis is also possible

Ecuador Holds Its Presidential Election Run-off 

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Jordan's King Abdullah II speaks to the press in the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 12, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Meets With India and Jordan's Leaders, Ecuador Holds Elections

A woman walks past a mural of leftist presidential candidate Luisa Gonzalez in Quito, Ecuador, on Feb. 5, 2025.

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Noboa's reelection would portend more business-friendly policies that slowly improve Ecuador's economic conditions, while a victory by his left-wing challenger would see increased social spending that could jeopardize the country's IMF deal.

Previewing Ecuador's Presidential Election

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

A banner depicts IRGC missile models aimed at Israel on April 16 in the Iranian capital of Tehran. The ongoing confrontation may be entering a de-escalation phase after the April 19 Israeli counterstrike to Iran's April 13 salvo against Israel.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Iran Conflict, Ecuador's Constitutional Referendum

Police guard stand outside the Mexican embassy in Quito, Ecuador, on April 8, 2024. 

President Noboa likely hoped the raid would show his commitment to combatting corruption, but it has only left his government with more enemies at home and abroad.

Ecuador's Raid on the Mexican Embassy Risks Backfiring on Its President

Ecuador's flag waves behind rows of coins.

While another IMF program may help Ecuador avoid a greater crisis in the years ahead, the government will continue to struggle to implement crucial structural reforms amid significant political constraints.

Can Ecuador Escape Its Cycle of Economic Instability?

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Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

Police present detainees in the case of TC Television in which armed men broke into the station's live broadcast on Jan. 10, 2024, in Guayaquil, Ecuador. 

While the government may be able to temporarily secure crime hot spots, major constraints on curbing gang activity portend a protracted security crisis with potential political implications.

Ecuador Declares 'Internal Armed Conflict' as Gang Violence Escalates

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Israeli army Merkava battle tanks deploy Oct. 13, 2023, with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel. An invasion will greatly exacerbate the hardships caused by Israel's total siege of the strip, creating a humanitarian crisis that could cause Egypt to use force to ensure that Palestinian refugees do not enter Sinai.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Ground Invasion, a Parliamentary Election in Poland

Ecuadorean presidential candidate Daniel Noboa (center) gives a thumbs up as he rides on top of a truck during a campaign caravan in Quito, Ecuador, on Oct. 11, 2023. 

The Oct. 15 presidential run-off could end years of political deadlock, but the country's security and economic challenges will almost certainly persist regardless of the outcome.

The Challenges That Await Ecuador's Next President

Ecuador straddles the equator on the Pacific Coast of South America. Colombia sits on its northern border, and Peru wraps around its eastern and southern boundaries. Geographical barriers divide the country into three parts. The east is part of the Amazon rainforest, the Andes Mountains run down the center, and the west is in the coastal zone.     The country's major territorial conflict with Peru was settled in 1998. The dispute dated back to the time when Ecuador was part of Gran Colombia, which included Colombia, Venezuela and Panama, in the early 19th century. With the dissolution of Gran Colombia, Ecuador inherited a territorial dispute that took over 150 years to be settled.     Although there is no territorial conflict with Colombia, Ecuador's border with its northern neighbor poses a major security challenge for the government in the capital, Quito, because it is a major route for Colombian drug trafficking and armed groups. Criminals and rebels tend to cross into Ecuador to escape Colombia's security forces. Ecuador and Colombia almost went to war at the beginning of the 21st century when Colombia bombed Ecuadorian territory in an operation against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia.     The country's core regions are the Quito metropolitan area and Guayaquil, home to Ecuador's major port. Those two areas hold more than half of the country's population. Over 70 percent of Ecuador's population is mestizo, and less than 10 percent is indigenous. However, indigenous groups have clashed frequently with the central government because they oppose oil and mining activities, especially in Ecuador's Amazon region. Oil and mining products are two of the country's key export products, representing almost 40 percent of total exports.

SITUATION REPORTS

Ecuador: Incumbent Wins Reelection in Presidential Runoff Vote

Ecuador: Incumbent President Noboa Claims Irregularities in Election First Round

Ecuador: Incumbent and Leftist Opposition Candidate Progress to Presidential Runoff

Ecuador: Judge Orders Investigation Into Military's Involvement in Missing Minors Incident

Ecuador: Vice President's Suspension Indicates Growing Political Instability Ahead of Election

Ecuador: Police Detachment Unlikely To Prevent Political Violence Ahead of Election

Colombia, Ecuador: Drought-Related Energy Crisis Will Pose Further Operational Risks

Ecuador: Power Rationing to Pose Operational and Security Challenges

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