El Salvador

Economics

Politics

The International Monetary Fund and El Salvador's government reached "preliminary understandings" on a program to strengthen the country's medium-term growth prospects and economic resilience, the IMF said in an Aug. 6 statement.

El Salvador: Government Talks With IMF Make Progress

El Salvador's Legislative Assembly approved adding a subsection to the constitution's Article 248 that would allow the assembly to approve and ratify constitutional reforms, making it easier to change the constitution, AP reported on April 29.

El Salvador: Legislative Assembly Approves Article Allowing for Faster Constitutional Reforms

China

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

China's Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen and El Salvador's Economy Minister Maria Luisa Hayem launched free trade agreement discussions via video, the Global Times reported on April 17. 

El Salvador, China: Governments Discuss Free Trade Agreement 

Military & Security

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele announced victory in the presidential election with 31% of the vote counted, El Pais reported on Feb. 4.

El Salvador: Bitcoin-Boosting Bukele Breezes Through Presidential Elections

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele stepped down on Nov. 30 to run for reelection in the upcoming Feb. 4, 2024, general elections, receiving a leave of absence from the country's Legislative Assembly and appointing his private secretary, Claudia Rodriguez, as acting president, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 1.

El Salvador: President Bukele Steps Down to Run for Reelection

United States

Taiwan

El Salvador and China are planning to begin talks over a free trade agreement with the intention of reaching a treaty "as soon as possible," according to a Nov. 9 announcement by Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, Reuters reported the same day.

El Salvador: Government to Begin Talks Over Free Trade Agreement With China

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele announced that he will seek reelection to a second term as president during a speech in the capital of San Salvador to commemorate the country’s Independence Day on Sept. 15, Reuters reported Sept. 16.

El Salvador: President Bukele Announced Reelection Campaign

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele announced via Twitter a voluntary repurchase offer to holders of the country's sovereign debt bonds maturing between 2023 and 2025, Reuters reported July 26.

El Salvador: Government to Issue Debt Buyback Offer

Assessments

Americas

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Cuba

Guatemala

Honduras

Mexico

Nicaragua

Venezuela

U.S. border patrol officials drive near the wall along the Mexican border in Sasabe, Arizona, on Dec. 8, 2023. 

The fallout from Trump's pledged tariffs and mass deportations could worsen living conditions in countries like Mexico, though countries with like-minded leaders, like Argentina, may fare better.

What Trump's Focus on Immigration, Trade and Ideology Means for Latin America

Panama

Peru

Flooding on the Rimac River on March 18, 2017, in Chosica, at the foot of the Andes east of Lima, Peru. The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

How El Nino Will Impact Latin America in 2024

Iran

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Germany

Pakistan

A picture taken from Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip shows smoke rising over buildings in Khan Yunis during an Israeli bombardment on Feb. 2, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Potential Gaza Cease-Fire, Elections in Pakistan and El Salvador

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele (C) speaks Oct. 26, 2023, in San Salvador, El Salvador.

A second Bukele administration would seek to consolidate political power and bolster the economy, but its efforts to do so could backfire.

How El Salvador's 2024 Presidential Election Could Play Out

Snapshots

Bolivia

People attend a rally in support of Israel in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Oct. 22, 2023. 

Social Issues

Anger over the conflict could temporarily strain Israel and the U.S.'s relations with left-wing governments in the region, while countries with large Jewish or Arab populations may see more security-related incidents.

Latin America's Response to the Israel-Hamas War 

Salvadoran security forces move a second group of 2,000 detainees overnight to the mega-prison Terrorist Confinement Center on March 15, 2023, in Tecoluca, El Salvador. 

El Salvador's successful state of emergency could convince other regional countries to attempt the same strategy, leading to safety, reputational and migratory risks.

The Appeal (and Perils) of Crime Crackdowns in Latin America, Part 2

Ecuador

Soldiers conduct a patrol on July 22, 2023, in the Salvadorean municipality of Colon, where the MS-13 gang reportedly remains active. 

The success of El Salvador's counter-crime state of emergency in reducing the country's homicide rate will be hard to replicate, despite the efforts of nearby countries.

The Appeal (and Perils) of Crime Crackdowns in Latin America, Part 1

Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former president of Honduras, is seen handcuffed at the headquarters of the country’s police force in Tegucigalpa on Feb. 15, 2022. He was arrested after receiving an extradition order from the United States. 

Security

Security Challenges in Latin America

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The arrest of the Central American country’s former president over bribery charges marks a notable step in U.S. efforts to reduce migration flows from the region.

Biden’s Anti-Corruption Push Makes Headway in Honduras

Columns

On Security

Uganda

Hong Kong SAR, China

Belarus

Russia

Turkey

A demonstration against a Polish parliamentary vote seen as impinging on press freedoms Dec. 19, 2021, in Warsaw, Poland. Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

Political Instability & Social Unrest

U.S.-China Relations

Crackdowns on independent media and civil society groups pose long-term risks by silencing valuable local information sources and harming the business climate.

The Corporate Implications of Cracking Down on Domestic Dissent

Guidance

Cyber

Implementation difficulties will likely serve as a cautionary tale to other nations considering national digital currencies.

The Benefits, Risks and Constraints of El Salvador's Bitcoin Gambit

Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele delivers a press conference at a hotel in San Salvador on Feb. 28, 2021. 

COVID-19

His party's new legislative majority will enable President Bukele to appoint Supreme Court justices and pass sweeping constitutional reforms.

An Election Brings El Salvador’s President Closer to Complete Control

Greece

Iraq

Saudi Arabia

An oil tanker on Dec. 11, 2019, at the port of Ras al-Khair, Saudi Arabia. OPEC+ holds its first meetings since oil prices rallied substantially in February.

Energy

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Greece and Turkey Meet, as Does OPEC+

The tiny country of El Salvador is typical of Central America's geographic challenges. Nestled south of Honduras, southeast of Guatemala and northwest of Nicaragua, El Salvador's landmass is small &mdash; even compared to its neighbors. Throughout most of its history, El Salvador was an agricultural society. The mountainous terrain and relative isolation from the rest of the world encouraged subsistence agriculture but very little profitable economic activity. Despite the growth of some industry, such as textile manufacturing, in the late 20th century, El Salvador remains a very underdeveloped country.    This underdevelopment fostered stark political divisions in the country's society. Abroad, El Salvador is perhaps best known for a 13-year civil war between communist-backed forces and the U.S.-backed government. The war ended in 1992, but the country remains politically split along economic class lines and between the left and right. The main political parties in the country are those organized around members of the now-disbanded leftist guerrilla movement and the right-leaning government.    Illegal migration and violent crime remain the principal concern in El Salvador for the United States. El Salvador is simply too small and too resource-poor to sustain its population. Explosive population growth in the mid-20th century, endemic poverty and civil war caused mass migration abroad. More than a million Salvadorans fled the country, mostly to the United States. After the conflict, violent crime &mdash; mainly in the form of criminal gangs such as MS-13 and Barrio 18, and their numerous cliques across the country &mdash; compounded the migration problem. To this day, remittances from Salvadorans living in the United States are one of the main sources of foreign income for the country's economy. For the United States, neither of the security concerns from El Salvador are first-tier foreign policy priorities. Instead, they are persistent issues that some administrations choose to take more seriously than others.

SITUATION REPORTS

El Salvador: Government Talks With IMF Make Progress

El Salvador: Legislative Assembly Approves Article Allowing for Faster Constitutional Reforms

El Salvador, China: Governments Discuss Free Trade Agreement

El Salvador: Bitcoin-Boosting Bukele Breezes Through Presidential Elections

El Salvador: President Bukele Steps Down to Run for Reelection

El Salvador: Government to Begin Talks Over Free Trade Agreement With China

El Salvador: President Bukele Announced Reelection Campaign

El Salvador: Government to Issue Debt Buyback Offer

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