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Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said his country would likely be involved in "any" Taiwan conflict given Taiwan's geographic proximity and the need to protect the nearly 200,000 Filipinos who live and work there, Bloomberg reported on May 19.

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Reiterates Intention To Be Involved in 'Any' Taiwan Conflict

Sen. Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa "escaped" the Philippine Senate before dawn after taking shelter there under Senate protective custody while facing an International Criminal Court arrest warrant, Reuters reported on May 14. 

Philippines: 'Escape' of Senator Wanted by the ICC Deepens Political Crisis

More than a dozen gunshots were heard inside the Philippine Senate while former national police chief and current Sen. Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa remained under Senate protective custody in the face of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant, The Philippine Star reported on May 13.

Philippines: Shots Fired as Senate Standoff Escalates

The Philippine House of Representatives voted 257-25, with nine abstentions, to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte for a second time over alleged fund misuse, unexplained wealth and threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., The New York Times reported on May 11. 

Philippines: Vice President Impeached, but Senate Shakeup Makes Conviction Uncertain 

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Association of Southeast Asian Nations members agreed to boost maritime cooperation and create a new center for maritime issues after the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the region's exposure to shipping disruptions and energy supply shocks, Bloomberg reported on May 8. 

ASEAN: Strait of Hormuz Shock Spurs Limited Maritime Coordination

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet met on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Cebu, Philippines, and agreed to rebuild trust, normalize relations and pursue peace after deadly border clashes in 2025, Bloomberg reported on May 7.

Thailand, Cambodia: Leaders Pledge To Rebuild Ties After 2025 Border Clashes

The Philippines House justice committee found probable cause to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte over allegations she misused public funds, accumulated unexplained wealth and threatened President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his relatives, the Philippine Star reported April 29.

Philippines: Congressional Committee Finds Probable Cause to Impeach Vice President

United States

Australia

Japan's government unveiled revisions to its rules on defense equipment and technology transfers, abolishing the restriction that had largely confined transfers to nonlethal items, according to a Ministry of Defense readout on April 21.

Japan: Tokyo Opens the Door to Lethal Arms Exports

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A cargo ship anchored May 16 in the Strait of Hormuz near Larak Island, Iran. Major gaps in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program persist, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will remain fragile over the next week.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Rubio Visits India, a Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

A Chinese navy ship (background left) is seen while an Australian navy ship (right) takes part in a maritime cooperative activity with the Philippines and Canada in the disputed waters of the South China Sea on Sept. 3, 2025.

China, the Philippines and Vietnam's efforts to rebalance coercive activity with diplomatic engagement have temporarily lowered escalation risks, but persistent rivalries ensure long-term volatility.

In the South China Sea, Managed Tension Masks Long-Term Volatility

Philippine Foreign Minister Theresa Lazaro speaks at a press conference during a Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Cebu City, the Philippines, on Jan. 29, 2026.

The coming year will test ASEAN's ability to maintain unity, manage crises and remain a credible regional forum amid rising internal security risks and a more fractured world order, particularly as the Philippines butts heads with China in the South China Sea.

Previewing the Philippines 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

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Flight routes.

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Science & Technology

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 

A widespread corruption scandal is threatening to cause political instability in the Philippines, which could lead to policy paralysis and weaken the Philippines' posture against China.

A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

Global Trade

U.S.-China Relations

The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

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Bangladesh

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

 The European Union and China will hold a high-level leaders' summit July 24 in Beijing, marking the 50th anniversary of Chinese-EU diplomatic relations.

The Weekly Rundown: An EU-China Summit, South Africa's Budget Vote

The Geopolitics of Trade

The impending full implementation of sweeping U.S. tariffs threatens to significantly disrupt export-driven ASEAN economies, which is driving countries to seek alternative trade partners.

The Geopolitics of Trade: U.S. Tariffs Give Impetus to ASEAN Trade Diversification

Snapshots

Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections. 

President Marcos' diminished Senate majority could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President

A Chinese frigate participates in a naval parade in the sea near Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 23, 2019. 

A shift from coastguard to naval confrontations raises the likelihood of sharp, short direct conflict that would significantly worsen already high maritime tensions.

Chinese-Philippine Naval Confrontations Raise the Stakes in South China Sea Tensions

Media

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Forecast Webcast

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Second-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

The Philippines is a collection of over 7,000 islands situated at the confluence of the South China Sea, the Indonesian archipelago, the Philippine Sea and Pacific Ocean. It forms the outer edge of maritime Southeast Asia, and for much of its modern history has served as a gateway between western powers and continental Asia.     A former colony of both Spain and the United States, the Philippines today consists of three island clusters: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Luzon, with the country’s capital in Manila, is the political, cultural and economic core of modern Philippines. It is highly urbanized relative to the rest of the country, boasts a large port and deep harbor, and accounts for roughly one-third of the Philippines GDP. Mindanao has long been a hotbed for political unrest and insurgent movements and is populated by the predominantly Muslim Moro tribes. It is also an important fruit and produce exporter.    The Philippines is shaped by sharp geographic, economic and social divisions between a primarily urban north — in Luzon — and a heavily agricultural, poorer south. This, along with the fractured island geography, makes effective national integration difficult. It also undermines Manila's efforts to play a stronger role throughout the South China Sea region or guard against external infringement on its territorial waters, especially from China. That weakness is apparent today, as China's increasingly aggressive moves to assert its own maritime claims test Manila's voice in groups like ASEAN as well as its alliance with the U.S.    While the Philippines’ location at the entrance to maritime Southeast Asia makes it geopolitically significant, internal imbalances continue to hamper its ability to actively defend its own claims, let alone project power.

Supply Chains

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

SITUATION REPORTS

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Reiterates Intention To Be Involved in 'Any' Taiwan Conflict

Philippines: 'Escape' of Senator Wanted by the ICC Deepens Political Crisis

Philippines: Shots Fired as Senate Standoff Escalates

Philippines: Vice President Impeached, but Senate Shakeup Makes Conviction Uncertain

ASEAN: Strait of Hormuz Shock Spurs Limited Maritime Coordination

Thailand, Cambodia: Leaders Pledge To Rebuild Ties After 2025 Border Clashes

Philippines: Congressional Committee Finds Probable Cause to Impeach Vice President

Japan: Tokyo Opens the Door to Lethal Arms Exports

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