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Politics

Malaysia hosted the inaugural Association of Southeast Asian Nations-Gulf Cooperation Council-China trilateral summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Channel News Asia reported on May 27.

Asia-Pacific, MENA: ASEAN-GCC-China Inaugural Summit Marks Deeper Economic Alignment

Military & Security

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. ordered all cabinet members to submit resignations following a midterm election setback, signaling a potential overhaul of his administration, The Straits Times reported May 22.

Philippines: President To Reshuffle Cabinet Following Midterm Losses 

China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations finalized negotiations for version 3.0 of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, expanding the deal to cover digital trade, green cooperation and enhanced supply chain integration, Reuters reported May 21.

China, ASEAN: Negotiations Conclude for Upgraded Trade Deal

Preliminary results from the Philippines' May 12 midterm elections show that candidates aligned with Vice President Sara Duterte are performing strongly, securing at least four of the 12 contested Senate seats, Rappler reported the same day.

Philippines: Early Tallies Suggest Midterm Elections Skew Pro-Duterte

Two Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, frigates and one coast guard vessel confronted a Philippine Navy vessel near Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, with one PLAN vessel crossing the bow of the Philippine Navy vessel and blocking its path in a high-risk naval maneuver just 11.8 nautical miles from the reef, The South China Morning Post reported May 8. 

China, Philippines: PLAN Frigates Block Philippine Warship in Rare Naval Confrontation

Vietnam lodged formal diplomatic protests on May 4 against China and the Philippines over their recent actions at Sandy Cay in the South China Sea, demanding they respect Hanoi’s sovereignty over the Spratly archipelago, the South China Morning Post reported on May 6.

Vietnam: Hanoi Joins Sandy Cay Fray as Feature Risks Becoming New South China Sea Hot Spot

Taiwan

Philippine Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad, Manila's chief military spokesperson on South China Sea issues, confirmed that the Philippine and Taiwanese navies are engaged in "unofficial and informal" engagements, and he mentioned the possibility of joint patrols in the Luzon Strait as part of broader multilateral engagement, state media TaiwanPlus News reported on April 29.

Taiwan, Philippines: Naval Connections Deepen After Manila Loosens Rules on Communications

United States

China and the Philippines both planted flags on Sandy Cay, a group of sandbars in the disputed Spratly Islands of the South China Sea, amid conflicting claims of control, The Washington Post reported on April 28. 

China, Philippines: Countries Exchange Flag-Planting Episodes on Disputed South China Sea Feature

Snapshots

Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections. 

President Marcos' diminished Senate majority could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President

Assessments

A Chinese frigate participates in a naval parade in the sea near Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 23, 2019. 

A shift from coastguard to naval confrontations raises the likelihood of sharp, short direct conflict that would significantly worsen already high maritime tensions.

Chinese-Philippine Naval Confrontations Raise the Stakes in South China Sea Tensions

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Forecast Webcast

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Second-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is escorted by security personnel as he enters a campaign rally at Southorn Stadium in Hong Kong, China, on March 9, 2025. 

The ex-president's high-profile arrest risks factionalizing Philippine institutions and altering the landscape around May midterm elections, which will influence the country's foreign policy trajectory.

In the Philippines, Duterte's Arrest Raises the Stakes of Upcoming Elections

Timor-Leste

The flags of the countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, are seen on display.

Malaysia's chairmanship will be pivotal in navigating security risks as well as those from U.S. trade restrictions, potential Chinese economic coercion, and supply chain realignments that threaten ASEAN's cohesion and strategic autonomy.

Previewing Malaysia's 2025 ASEAN Chairmanship

Japan

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hold a joint press conference on Jan. 10, 2025.

Japan is intensifying its diplomatic and security engagement in Southeast Asia through defense, trade and infrastructure agreements to counterbalance China and enhance regional stability.

Ishiba Strengthens Japan's Role in Southeast Asia With Defense and Trade Deals

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U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. 

A recent slew of bilateral deals indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and institutionalize their alliance before Trump takes office.

The U.S. and the Philippines Race To Deepen Ties Before Potential Policy Shifts

A U.S. amphibious assault ship takes part in a joint U.S.-Philippines military exercise on the shores of San Antonio town, facing the South China Sea, on April 11, 2019. 

Global Elections

Like Biden, Harris would likely see the Philippines as a key partner in regional efforts to counter China, while Trump would likely adopt a more transactional, bilateral approach that could either strengthen or strain ties with Manila.

How Might the U.S. Presidential Election Impact Ties With the Philippines?

Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (center) and other ASEAN leaders take part in the 2024 ASEAN summit in Vientiane on Oct. 9, 2024. 

The deals signed at the summit reflect an increasing focus on economic integration amid the Southeast Asian bloc's continued failure to find consensus on security issues.

Reviewing the 2024 ASEAN Summit

The flags of ASEAN members are displayed at a naval base during the ASEAN Solidarity Exercise in Batam, Natuna regency, Riau Islands province, Indonesia, on Sept. 20, 2023. 

ASEAN's economic and geopolitical diversity will impede significant progress toward deeper integration, despite members' intention to collaborate more closely.

Economic and Geopolitical Diversity Hinders ASEAN's Path to Deeper Integration

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Venezuela

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A motorcyclist looks at his phone in front of a National Electoral Council poster promoting the upcoming presidential election in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 23, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Election in Venezuela, Economic Reforms in the U.K.

The Philippines is a collection of over 7,000 islands situated at the confluence of the South China Sea, the Indonesian archipelago, the Philippine Sea and Pacific Ocean. It forms the outer edge of maritime Southeast Asia, and for much of its modern history has served as a gateway between western powers and continental Asia.     A former colony of both Spain and the United States, the Philippines today consists of three island clusters: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Luzon, with the country’s capital in Manila, is the political, cultural and economic core of modern Philippines. It is highly urbanized relative to the rest of the country, boasts a large port and deep harbor, and accounts for roughly one-third of the Philippines GDP. Mindanao has long been a hotbed for political unrest and insurgent movements and is populated by the predominantly Muslim Moro tribes. It is also an important fruit and produce exporter.    The Philippines is shaped by sharp geographic, economic and social divisions between a primarily urban north — in Luzon — and a heavily agricultural, poorer south. This, along with the fractured island geography, makes effective national integration difficult. It also undermines Manila's efforts to play a stronger role throughout the South China Sea region or guard against external infringement on its territorial waters, especially from China. That weakness is apparent today, as China's increasingly aggressive moves to assert its own maritime claims test Manila's voice in groups like ASEAN as well as its alliance with the U.S.    While the Philippines’ location at the entrance to maritime Southeast Asia makes it geopolitically significant, internal imbalances continue to hamper its ability to actively defend its own claims, let alone project power.

Supply Chains

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

SITUATION REPORTS

Asia-Pacific, MENA: ASEAN-GCC-China Inaugural Summit Marks Deeper Economic Alignment

Philippines: President To Reshuffle Cabinet Following Midterm Losses

China, ASEAN: Negotiations Conclude for Upgraded Trade Deal

Philippines: Early Tallies Suggest Midterm Elections Skew Pro-Duterte

China, Philippines: PLAN Frigates Block Philippine Warship in Rare Naval Confrontation

Vietnam: Hanoi Joins Sandy Cay Fray as Feature Risks Becoming New South China Sea Hot Spot

Taiwan, Philippines: Naval Connections Deepen After Manila Loosens Rules on Communications

China, Philippines: Countries Exchange Flag-Planting Episodes on Disputed South China Sea Feature

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