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Military & Security

China's military seems to be conducting a major drill, slowly building since Nov. 14, with upward of 100 vessels and aircraft moving in the East and South China seas and in the West Pacific, according to defense representatives from China's regional neighbors cited by Reuters, but no Chinese military authorities have formally announced drills yet.

China: Cross-Pacific Military Drill To Deepen Regional Defense Pushback

Politics

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced a multiyear base pay increase for military and uniformed personnel to be rolled out from 2026-28, alongside higher subsistence allowances, The Philippine Star reported on Dec. 3.

Philippines: Marcos Unveils Pay Hike Amid Coup Rumors and Expanding Graft Scandal

Canada

The Philippines and Canada signed their status of visiting forces agreement, formalizing troop access and joint military training cooperation, The Philippine Star reported on Nov. 3.

Philippines, Canada: Manila, Ottawa Sign Defense Pact

United States

Malaysia

The United States and the Philippines launched a new South China Sea-focused defense task force to coordinate planning, interoperability and joint operations under a broader two-year modernization plan covering advanced training, logistics and unmanned systems, Reuters reported Oct. 31.

U.S., Philippines, Malaysia: Washington Deepens Southeast Asia Defense Network

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Economics

China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations signed the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (CAFTA) 3.0 upgrade at the ASEAN leaders' summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Channel News Asia reported on Oct. 28. 

China, ASEAN: Trade Pact Upgrade To Expand Bloc's Market Access

The Philippines accused China's coast guard of using water cannons and ramming a Philippine vessel near Philippine-controlled Thitu Island in the Spratly Islands of the disputed South China Sea, damaging the ship but causing no injuries, Reuters reported on Oct. 12.

China, Philippines: Maritime Forces Clash in South China Sea

Anti-corruption protests marking the anniversary of the beginning of martial law in the Philippines drew tens of thousands of people, including around 49,000 in Manila and thousands more in Cebu, Iloilo, Bacolod and Tuguegarao, The Philippine Star reported on Sept. 21.

Philippines: Anti-Corruption Protests Surge Amid Misappropriation Scandal

United Kingdom

Chinese and Philippine vessels clashed near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, with China's coast guard using water cannons against more than 10 Philippine ships, damaging one vessel and injuring a crew member, Nikkei Asia reported on Sept. 16.

China, Philippines, U.K.: Coast Guards Clash as London Pursues Visiting Forces Agreement

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Science & Technology

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 

A widespread corruption scandal is threatening to cause political instability in the Philippines, which could lead to policy paralysis and weaken the Philippines' posture against China.

A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

Global Trade

U.S.-China Relations

The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

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Bangladesh

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

 The European Union and China will hold a high-level leaders' summit July 24 in Beijing, marking the 50th anniversary of Chinese-EU diplomatic relations.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An EU-China Summit, South Africa's Budget Vote

The Geopolitics of Trade

The impending full implementation of sweeping U.S. tariffs threatens to significantly disrupt export-driven ASEAN economies, which is driving countries to seek alternative trade partners.

The Geopolitics of Trade: U.S. Tariffs Give Impetus to ASEAN Trade Diversification

Snapshots

Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections. 

President Marcos' diminished Senate majority could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President

A Chinese frigate participates in a naval parade in the sea near Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 23, 2019. 

A shift from coastguard to naval confrontations raises the likelihood of sharp, short direct conflict that would significantly worsen already high maritime tensions.

Chinese-Philippine Naval Confrontations Raise the Stakes in South China Sea Tensions

Media

Mexico

Forecast Webcast

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S.-Iran Relations

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Second-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is escorted by security personnel as he enters a campaign rally at Southorn Stadium in Hong Kong, China, on March 9, 2025. 

The ex-president's high-profile arrest risks factionalizing Philippine institutions and altering the landscape around May midterm elections, which will influence the country's foreign policy trajectory.

In the Philippines, Duterte's Arrest Raises the Stakes of Upcoming Elections

The flags of the countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, are seen on display.

Malaysia's chairmanship will be pivotal in navigating security risks as well as those from U.S. trade restrictions, potential Chinese economic coercion, and supply chain realignments that threaten ASEAN's cohesion and strategic autonomy.

Previewing Malaysia's 2025 ASEAN Chairmanship

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hold a joint press conference on Jan. 10, 2025.

Japan is intensifying its diplomatic and security engagement in Southeast Asia through defense, trade and infrastructure agreements to counterbalance China and enhance regional stability.

Ishiba Strengthens Japan's Role in Southeast Asia With Defense and Trade Deals

The Philippines is a collection of over 7,000 islands situated at the confluence of the South China Sea, the Indonesian archipelago, the Philippine Sea and Pacific Ocean. It forms the outer edge of maritime Southeast Asia, and for much of its modern history has served as a gateway between western powers and continental Asia.     A former colony of both Spain and the United States, the Philippines today consists of three island clusters: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Luzon, with the country’s capital in Manila, is the political, cultural and economic core of modern Philippines. It is highly urbanized relative to the rest of the country, boasts a large port and deep harbor, and accounts for roughly one-third of the Philippines GDP. Mindanao has long been a hotbed for political unrest and insurgent movements and is populated by the predominantly Muslim Moro tribes. It is also an important fruit and produce exporter.    The Philippines is shaped by sharp geographic, economic and social divisions between a primarily urban north — in Luzon — and a heavily agricultural, poorer south. This, along with the fractured island geography, makes effective national integration difficult. It also undermines Manila's efforts to play a stronger role throughout the South China Sea region or guard against external infringement on its territorial waters, especially from China. That weakness is apparent today, as China's increasingly aggressive moves to assert its own maritime claims test Manila's voice in groups like ASEAN as well as its alliance with the U.S.    While the Philippines’ location at the entrance to maritime Southeast Asia makes it geopolitically significant, internal imbalances continue to hamper its ability to actively defend its own claims, let alone project power.

Supply Chains

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

SITUATION REPORTS

China: Cross-Pacific Military Drill To Deepen Regional Defense Pushback

Philippines: Marcos Unveils Pay Hike Amid Coup Rumors and Expanding Graft Scandal

Philippines, Canada: Manila, Ottawa Sign Defense Pact

U.S., Philippines, Malaysia: Washington Deepens Southeast Asia Defense Network

China, ASEAN: Trade Pact Upgrade To Expand Bloc's Market Access

China, Philippines: Maritime Forces Clash in South China Sea

Philippines: Anti-Corruption Protests Surge Amid Misappropriation Scandal

China, Philippines, U.K.: Coast Guards Clash as London Pursues Visiting Forces Agreement

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