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China pledged to sign the 1997 Southeast Asian Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone Treaty "without reservation," according to Malaysia's foreign minister, Reuters reported on July 10. 

China, ASEAN: Nuclear Pledge and Trade Ties Spell Symbolic but Not Structural Alignment

Canada

The Philippines announced its visiting forces agreement with Canada is ready for signing, Bloomberg reported on July 9.

Philippines, Canada: Troop Pact Nears as Manila Builds Deterrence Against China

United States

Association of Southeast Asian countries are reeling in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump's July 7 announcement that six ASEAN countries -- including Indonesia (32%), Malaysia (25%), Thailand (36%), Cambodia (36%), Laos (40%) and Myanmar (40%) -- will face new reciprocal tariffs starting Aug. 1, with separate 40% tariffs targeting goods transshipped through ASEAN countries, Nikkei Asia reported July 8.

ASEAN, U.S.: New Trump Tariff Rates Target ASEAN Economies 

Japan

Japan plans to export six decommissioned Abukuma-class destroyer escorts to the Philippines to bolster Manila's maritime deterrence posture against China, the Yomiuri Shimbun reported on July 6.

Japan, Philippines: Tokyo To Give Manila Destroyers

Philippine military leaders, in tandem with the United States and Japan, are operationalizing a "one-theater" concept to unify defense planning across the East and South China seas, which Japan and the Philippines, respectively, dispute with China, Reuters reported on June 30. 

Philippines, U.S., Japan: Countries Deepen Unified Security Front and Infrastructure Collaboration

The Philippines will "soon" deploy army units to up to nine South China Sea features it occupies, marking the first time the army will be tasked with defending maritime claims, the South China Morning Post reported on June 13.

Philippines: Manila To Deploy Army to South China Sea Features

The Philippine Senate, acting as an impeachment court, voted 18-5 to send Vice President Sara Duterte's impeachment articles back to the House of Representatives for clarification, without dismissing the charges, The Straits Times reported on June 11.

Philippines: Senate Kicks Impeachment Case Back to House, Effectively Delaying Trial

The Philippine Senate convened as an impeachment court on June 10, a day ahead of the previously scheduled date, to try Vice President Sara Duterte on charges of budget mismanagement, threatening President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.'s life and betraying public trust, Rappler reported the same day.

Philippines: Senate Convenes Impeachment Trial of Vice President

Assessments

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

The impending full implementation of sweeping U.S. tariffs threatens to significantly disrupt export-driven ASEAN economies, which is driving countries to seek alternative trade partners.

The Geopolitics of Trade: U.S. Tariffs Give Impetus to ASEAN Trade Diversification

Snapshots

Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections. 

President Marcos' diminished Senate majority could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President

A Chinese frigate participates in a naval parade in the sea near Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 23, 2019. 

A shift from coastguard to naval confrontations raises the likelihood of sharp, short direct conflict that would significantly worsen already high maritime tensions.

Chinese-Philippine Naval Confrontations Raise the Stakes in South China Sea Tensions

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Forecast Webcast

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Second-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte is escorted by security personnel as he enters a campaign rally at Southorn Stadium in Hong Kong, China, on March 9, 2025. 

The ex-president's high-profile arrest risks factionalizing Philippine institutions and altering the landscape around May midterm elections, which will influence the country's foreign policy trajectory.

In the Philippines, Duterte's Arrest Raises the Stakes of Upcoming Elections

Timor-Leste

The flags of the countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, are seen on display.

Malaysia's chairmanship will be pivotal in navigating security risks as well as those from U.S. trade restrictions, potential Chinese economic coercion, and supply chain realignments that threaten ASEAN's cohesion and strategic autonomy.

Previewing Malaysia's 2025 ASEAN Chairmanship

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba hold a joint press conference on Jan. 10, 2025.

Japan is intensifying its diplomatic and security engagement in Southeast Asia through defense, trade and infrastructure agreements to counterbalance China and enhance regional stability.

Ishiba Strengthens Japan's Role in Southeast Asia With Defense and Trade Deals

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U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

(Left to right) U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Enrique Manalo and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro take part in a joint press conference in Manila on July 30, 2024. 

A recent slew of bilateral deals indicates an effort by both governments to rapidly expand defense cooperation and institutionalize their alliance before Trump takes office.

The U.S. and the Philippines Race To Deepen Ties Before Potential Policy Shifts

A U.S. amphibious assault ship takes part in a joint U.S.-Philippines military exercise on the shores of San Antonio town, facing the South China Sea, on April 11, 2019. 

Global Elections

Like Biden, Harris would likely see the Philippines as a key partner in regional efforts to counter China, while Trump would likely adopt a more transactional, bilateral approach that could either strengthen or strain ties with Manila.

How Might the U.S. Presidential Election Impact Ties With the Philippines?

Laos' Prime Minister Sonexay Siphandone (center) and other ASEAN leaders take part in the 2024 ASEAN summit in Vientiane on Oct. 9, 2024. 

The deals signed at the summit reflect an increasing focus on economic integration amid the Southeast Asian bloc's continued failure to find consensus on security issues.

Reviewing the 2024 ASEAN Summit

The flags of ASEAN members are displayed at a naval base during the ASEAN Solidarity Exercise in Batam, Natuna regency, Riau Islands province, Indonesia, on Sept. 20, 2023. 

ASEAN's economic and geopolitical diversity will impede significant progress toward deeper integration, despite members' intention to collaborate more closely.

Economic and Geopolitical Diversity Hinders ASEAN's Path to Deeper Integration

The Philippines is a collection of over 7,000 islands situated at the confluence of the South China Sea, the Indonesian archipelago, the Philippine Sea and Pacific Ocean. It forms the outer edge of maritime Southeast Asia, and for much of its modern history has served as a gateway between western powers and continental Asia.     A former colony of both Spain and the United States, the Philippines today consists of three island clusters: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Luzon, with the country’s capital in Manila, is the political, cultural and economic core of modern Philippines. It is highly urbanized relative to the rest of the country, boasts a large port and deep harbor, and accounts for roughly one-third of the Philippines GDP. Mindanao has long been a hotbed for political unrest and insurgent movements and is populated by the predominantly Muslim Moro tribes. It is also an important fruit and produce exporter.    The Philippines is shaped by sharp geographic, economic and social divisions between a primarily urban north — in Luzon — and a heavily agricultural, poorer south. This, along with the fractured island geography, makes effective national integration difficult. It also undermines Manila's efforts to play a stronger role throughout the South China Sea region or guard against external infringement on its territorial waters, especially from China. That weakness is apparent today, as China's increasingly aggressive moves to assert its own maritime claims test Manila's voice in groups like ASEAN as well as its alliance with the U.S.    While the Philippines’ location at the entrance to maritime Southeast Asia makes it geopolitically significant, internal imbalances continue to hamper its ability to actively defend its own claims, let alone project power.

SITUATION REPORTS

China, ASEAN: Nuclear Pledge and Trade Ties Spell Symbolic but Not Structural Alignment

Philippines, Canada: Troop Pact Nears as Manila Builds Deterrence Against China

ASEAN, U.S.: New Trump Tariff Rates Target ASEAN Economies

Japan, Philippines: Tokyo To Give Manila Destroyers

Philippines, U.S., Japan: Countries Deepen Unified Security Front and Infrastructure Collaboration

Philippines: Manila To Deploy Army to South China Sea Features

Philippines: Senate Kicks Impeachment Case Back to House, Effectively Delaying Trial

Philippines: Senate Convenes Impeachment Trial of Vice President

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