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Moldova

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Politics

The U.S. State Department accused Russian state-backed media outlet RT of engaging in covert influence activities to undermine elections, according to a Sept. 13 statement from Secretary of State Antony Blinken and an accompanying fact sheet. 

Russia: U.S. Accuses RT of Covert Influence and Military Procurement

The new pro-Russian political bloc named "Victory" and run by fugitive Moldovan oligarch Ilan Shor selected parliamentarian Vasile Bolea as its candidate in the country's October presidential election, RFERL reported Aug. 2.

Moldova: Shor-Aligned Opposition Bloc Selects Presidential Candidate

Igor Dodon, the leader of Moldova's main opposition pro-Russia Socialist Party, or PSRM, announced that he will not run for president, and his party nominated former Prosecutor General Alexandru Stoianoglo as its candidate, Bloomberg reported on July 8. 

Moldova: Leading Opposition Party Selects Presidential Candidate

Hungary

Ukraine

The European Union has formally launched accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova during two separate intergovernmental conferences in Luxembourg between officials from the two countries, EU institutions and member states on June 25, a press release from the EU Council shows. 

EU, Ukraine, Moldova: Ukraine and Moldova Formally Begin EU Accession Negotiations

Pro-Russian opposition political forces in Moldova held a meeting to finalize their strategy for participation in the presidential election and field a joint candidate, Balkan Insight reported May 20.

Moldova: Pro-Russian Forces to Decide on Unified Opposition Candidate

Europe

Bosnia and Herzegovina

EU leaders will discuss the bloc's enlargement policy during a two-day summit on March 21-22, taking stock of candidate countries' progress toward meeting accession criteria, Euractiv reported on March 20.

EU: Brussels To Propose New, More Gradual Accession Process for New Members

France

Economics

Moldova and France on March 7 signed an economic roadmap, along with a defense cooperation accord that establishes a legal framework for bilateral arms sales (including anti-air systems), training, regular dialogue and intelligence sharing, Reuters has reported.

Moldova, France: Countries Sign Defense and Economic Pact Amid Fears of Russian Destabilization

The unrecognized Moldovan breakaway region of Transdniestria decided to request that Russian authorities implement "measures" to "protect" the region from increasing economic pressure from Moldova, although it did not publicly discuss a new appeal for annexation by Russia, Reuters reported on Feb. 28.

Moldova: Transdniestria Appeals to Russia For 'Protection' Rather Than Annexation

Snapshots

Moldovan President Maya Sandu delivers a speech in Chisinau on Sept. 20, 2024, during a rally to launch her reelection campaign.

Arguably the biggest threat to Moldova's pro-European trajectory comes not from the two impending Oct. 20 votes themselves, but how the results impact the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

Previewing Moldova's Presidential Race and Referendum on EU Membership

Assessments

Peru

Iran

China

The 133rd session of the Committee of Ministers at the European Council on May 17 in Strasbourg France. European Union leaders will gather June 27-28  in Brussels for the first European Council summit since the June 6-9 European Parliament elections.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Ukraine and Moldova Begin EU Accession Talks, Peru's President Visits China

People hold Moldovan national flags as they gather outside the presidential palace in Chisinau on Dec. 14, 2023, to celebrate the European Council's decision to open accession talks with Moldova.

In the lead-up to the October presidential election and referendum on Moldova's EU integration, Moscow and its Moldovan political allies will step up their efforts to destabilize the country's pro-European government.

In Moldova, Two Key Votes Portend More Pro-Russian Political Agitation

Israel

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

Australia

Georgia

India

U..S Secretary of State Antony Blinken (L) meets with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan on Oct. 14, 2023, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet with his Arab counterparts Nov. 4 in the Jordanian capital in a bid to garner regional support for U.S. policies in the Israel-Hamas war.

The Weekly Rundown: Blinken Meets Arab Ministers, State Assembly Elections in India

European leaders pose for a photo ahead of the European Political Community (EPC) summit in Bulboaca, Moldova, on June 1, 2023. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Increased aid from its European neighbors will bolster Chisinau's ability to maintain its pro-Western course, but powerful pro-Russian Moldovans will continue to foment unrest.

For Moldova, a European Summit Draws More Support to Ward Off Russian Influence

Romania

Power lines are seen on the outskirts of Balti, the second-largest city in Moldova, on Nov. 2, 2022. 

Energy

Russia’s gas cut-offs are making Moldova increasingly vulnerable, with widespread blackouts, rampant inflation and growing pro-Russian anti-government protests. 

Will Moldova Be the First To Fall in Russia’s Energy War on Europe?

Moldovan President Maia Sandu speaks during a press conference in Chisinau on March 6, 2022. 

Security

The Ukraine Conflict

On top of destabilizing Moldova's pro-EU government, the attacks in Transdniestria could distract Kyiv from Moscow's eastern offensive by amplifying the threat to southern Ukraine.

Explosions in Moldova's Breakaway Region Fuel Fears of a Wider Russian War

Refugees from Ukraine walk at the Ukrainian-Romanian border in Siret on March 2, 2022. Though the war is creating significant social and security challenges for Romania that EU assistance will only partially mitigate, it is also leading to temporary political stability.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Though the war is creating significant social and security challenges for Romania that EU assistance will only partially mitigate, it is also leading to temporary political stability.

Romania's Security and Social Challenges, and Political Benefits, From the Ukraine War

French President Emmanuel Macron (left) meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during an Eastern Partnership summit at the European Council headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Dec. 15, 2021. 

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

European Disintegration

These countries will probably receive more EU funding and political support to help fend off threats from Russia, but they're unlikely to join the bloc anytime soon.

For Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, EU Aid Remains More Likely Than Accession

Moldovan President Maia Sandu speaks with journalists outside a polling station in Chisinau on July 11, 2021. 

 To secure its influence over the ex-Soviet state, Russia will work to undermine the new parliament’s attempts to boost cooperation with the West. 

Moldova Elects Its Most Pro-EU Government Yet

Guidance

Philippines

Germany

Turkey

German Chancellor Angela Merkel speaks during a joint press conference at the White House on April 27, 2018, in Washington, D.C. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Election in Moldova and a Biden-Merkel Meeting

Algeria

Biden and Trump campaign signs are displayed as voters line up to cast their ballots during early voting Oct. 30, 2020, at the Alafaya Branch Library in Orlando, Florida. 

The Weekly Rundown: Election Day in the United States

Moldova is a landlocked country sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania. Like its immediate neighbors, Moldova is a borderland state contested between Russia and the West.    Moldova's small size, flat terrain and strategic location on the Bessarabian gap has made it vulnerable to invasion and control by outside powers throughout its history. The territory that now makes up Moldova was contested between the Ottoman and Russian empires in the 19th century. In the 20th century, the Romanians, Germans and Soviets fought for control over its territory. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Moldova became an independent state for the first time in modern history, with its economic, political and demographic core located in the capital of Chisinau.    Independence has not removed external competition for influence over Moldova. The country's political system is roughly evenly divided between pro-Russian and pro-European Union groups that clash &mdash; sometimes violently &mdash; over the country's orientation toward Moscow or toward the West. Moldova is also divided geographically, with the territory of Transdniestria breaking away from Chisinau's control in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Transdniestria remains de facto out of the control of the Moldovan government and is supported financially and militarily by Russia. Coping with these various internal and external divisions is Moldova's primary geographic challenge.

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia: U.S. Accuses RT of Covert Influence and Military Procurement

Moldova: Shor-Aligned Opposition Bloc Selects Presidential Candidate

Moldova: Leading Opposition Party Selects Presidential Candidate

EU, Ukraine, Moldova: Ukraine and Moldova Formally Begin EU Accession Negotiations

Moldova: Pro-Russian Forces to Decide on Unified Opposition Candidate

EU: Brussels To Propose New, More Gradual Accession Process for New Members

Moldova, France: Countries Sign Defense and Economic Pact Amid Fears of Russian Destabilization

Moldova: Transdniestria Appeals to Russia For 'Protection' Rather Than Annexation

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