United States

Europe

Ukraine

Russia

Military & Security

New U.S. intelligence assessments concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test NATO between fall 2026 and 2029 through actions ranging from cyberattacks and covert operations to a limited land incursion, The Wall Street Journal reported on Aug. 6.

Russia, NATO: U.S. Intel Warns Putin Could Test NATO's Resolve

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

An explosive device planted in the car of Russian drone manufacturer Vladimir Tkachuk seriously wounded him and killed his driver near Yekaterinburg, marking the second attack on a Russian drone developer within a week, Reuters reported on Aug. 5.

Russia, Ukraine: Targeted Attacks Will Keep Russian War Officials at Risk

Lithuania

Politics

Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said the country's military intelligence uncovered indications that Russia was weighing unconventional kinetic attacks on Baltic critical infrastructure using Ukrainian-made drones to maintain plausible deniability, LRT reported Aug. 6.

Europe, Russia: Lithuania Warns of Possible Russian False-Flag Drone Attacks in the Baltics

Ukraine received only one-third as many allied air-defense missiles during the first half of 2026 as it did during the same period in 2025, President Volodymyr Zelensky said after a Russian attack involving 24 ballistic missiles, four Zircon cruise missiles and 115 drones killed at least 17 people, Reuters reported on Aug. 5. 

Ukraine, Russia: Patriot Shortage Will Give Moscow Winter Leverage

Energy

Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said in an Aug. 3 interview with Politico that Kyiv hoped refinery strikes and Western sanctions would force Russia to end the war this fall, but he warned that Moscow would otherwise resume large-scale attacks on Ukraine's energy, water and sewage infrastructure.

Ukraine, Russia: Energy Deficit Will Deepen Ukraine's Winter Vulnerability

North Korea

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said preliminary evidence indicated that Russia used a North Korean ballistic missile to strike a home in Radushne, near Kryvyi Rih, killing two parents and three of their children, Reuters reported on July 30.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia's Use of North Korean Missiles Deepens Ukraine's Air Defense Crisis

Poland

A suspected Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crashed in an uninhabited area of eastern Poland early July 30 during a large-scale Russian air attack on western Ukraine, causing no casualties, Reuters reported the same day.

Poland, Russia: Suspected Russian Missile Crashes in Poland

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk met in Lublin, Poland, and discussed anti-missile defense cooperation, Polish investment in Ukraine, support for Ukrainians living in Poland and the bilateral historical dialogue, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported on July 29, citing statements by both leaders.

Ukraine, Poland: Zelensky-Tusk Meeting Will Stabilize Ties but Not Resolve Rift

Snapshots

The parliament building is seen through a European flag during a demonstration against a judicial reform pushed by lawmakers of the ruling Law and Justice party on Jan. 23, 2020, in Warsaw, Poland. 

Social Issues

Poland's right-wing opposition parties remain well-positioned to win a majority in the 2027 general election, though growing fragmentation among these parties will hinder postelection coalition talks, potentially leading to a government that includes far-right elements.

How Poland's Right-Wing Split Alters the 2027 Election Landscape

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (center) chats with U.S. senators before heading to a closed-door meeting at the U.S. Capitol on July 28, 2026. 

Economics

If enacted, the proposed bill would give Trump broad new authority to impose tariffs on major Russian oil buyers, but selective enforcement means it would unlikely compel Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

New U.S. Sanctions Bill Unlikely To Impact Russia's Oil Exports or War Strategy

Assessments

Peru

Iran

Israel

United Kingdom

A couple rides past Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles displayed at Azadi Square in Tehran on July 24.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Likely U.S. Escalation in Iran, Zelensky Travels to Washington

Ukrainian servicemen maintain a 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region on May 27 in Pokrovsk, Ukraine.

With grinding ground offensives yielding minimal gains at a severe human cost, Moscow is likely to escalate devastating aerial strikes designed to cripple critical infrastructure and force Kyiv into concessions.


What the Fall of Kostiantynivka Would Mean for the Ukraine War 

People gather for a second consecutive day of protests in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 17, 2026, following the controversial dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelensky's potentially imminent decision to dismiss the army chief under mounting public pressure would weaken his authority, while prolonged turmoil could further strain Ukraine's war effort.

Defense Minister's Ouster Plunges Ukraine Into Biggest Wartime Political Crisis Yet

Albania

Montenegro

Moldova

A man checks the flags of EU countries in 2004. 

Recent negotiations saw Montenegro and Albania pushed into advanced legislative alignment while Brussels expanded accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.


The Progress, Prospects and Risks of EU Enlargement

Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026, outside of Moscow, Russia.

Russia will retain the ability to produce and export most of its oil, but sustained Ukrainian strikes will erode its refining capacity, exacerbate domestic fuel shortages and raise the risk of deeper production cuts.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

Lebanon

Indonesia

Myanmar

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

France

ASEAN leaders hold hands for a group photo during the opening ceremony of the 48th ASEAN summit in Cebu, central Philippines on May 8, 2026. 

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Tensions Remain High, ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meet With Myanmar

Turkey

Billboards are seen ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, on June 26, 2026.

Recent U.S. military drawdowns in Germany and threatened reductions in Italy and Spain underscore the stakes of the summit on July 7-8.

Transatlantic Tensions Set To Dominate NATO Summit in Ankara

Media

Cuba

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Third-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Belarus

An officer of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stands on a destroyed bridge over the Dnipro River, which forms the state border between Ukraine and Belarus, on June 1, 2026.

The threat of Ukrainian retaliatory strikes and Belarus's limited offensive capabilities will likely keep Minsk from directly entering the conflict, but the country will remain a critical base for Russian military pressure against Ukraine and NATO.

Despite Russian Pressure, Belarus Remains Unlikely to Join the Ukraine War

A Ukrainian flag flies in Riga, Latvia, on May 18, 2026.

Even a sustainable peace settlement would leave Kyiv grappling with a $600 billion reconstruction bill, demanding high levels of foreign direct investment and stringent governance reforms.

Ukraine's Defense Will Continue To Strain Government Finances

<p>Ukraine is the quintessential borderland state. The country borders three former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus and Moldova) and four countries in the European Union (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Ukraine also has a coastline along the Black Sea to the south. Ukraine sits on the Northern European Plain, the area that has historically served as an invasion superhighway going east and west. Beyond its strategic location, Ukraine&#39;s geography has only facilitated such invasions. The country consists of flat and fertile plains, with the exception of the Carpathian Mountain range that arches into the far west of the country. But even these mountains can be penetrated and have not posed a significant barrier to invasion. Given such lack of barriers, Ukraine&#39;s wide-open geography is inextricably linked to that of Russia. Ukraine&#39;s agricultural and industrial belts have traditionally been integrated with Russia&#39;s, and Ukraine serves as the primary transit state for Russian energy exports to Europe. Due to its location and abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, Ukraine has been contested between regional powers for centuries. This competition is currently playing out in an extreme form today, with a Western-backed government confronting a Russian-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Ukraine has several population and political cores, including Lviv in the west, Kiev in the center and the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These different cores make administering Ukraine difficult. The current crisis in Ukraine is therefore merely the latest iteration of the country&#39;s internal divisions and the long-standing East-West conflict over the country. Maintaining sovereignty and unity in the face of this competition is Ukraine&#39;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, NATO: U.S. Intel Warns Putin Could Test NATO's Resolve

Russia, Ukraine: Targeted Attacks Will Keep Russian War Officials at Risk

Europe, Russia: Lithuania Warns of Possible Russian False-Flag Drone Attacks in the Baltics

Ukraine, Russia: Patriot Shortage Will Give Moscow Winter Leverage

Ukraine, Russia: Energy Deficit Will Deepen Ukraine's Winter Vulnerability

Russia, Ukraine: Russia's Use of North Korean Missiles Deepens Ukraine's Air Defense Crisis

Poland, Russia: Suspected Russian Missile Crashes in Poland

Ukraine, Poland: Zelensky-Tusk Meeting Will Stabilize Ties but Not Resolve Rift

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