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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said it was premature to discuss elections in Ukraine, commenting on media reports that Kyiv could soon announce a presidential election and a referendum on a peace deal to be held in May, Russian state news agency TASS reported on Feb. 11.

Ukraine, Russia: Moscow Downplays Election Reports as Kyiv Denies Plans

Economics

In an interview with TV BRICS, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia sees no "bright future" for economic relations with the United States despite ongoing U.S.-brokered efforts to end the war in Ukraine, Reuters reported on Feb. 9.

Russia, U.S.: Moscow Downplays Economic Reset as Talks Stall

Delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States concluded a second round of U.S.-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi, agreeing that each side would release 157 prisoners of war, Reuters reported on Feb. 5.

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Abu Dhabi Talks End With POW Swap, Agreement to Continue Negotiations 

Russian, Ukrainian and U.S. officials began a second round of U.S.-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, just a day after Russia carried out its largest missile and drone strike of the winter against Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Reuters reported Feb. 4.

Ukraine, Russia: Second Round of Abu Dhabi Peace Talks Begins Under Fire

Energy

Russia launched a large overnight barrage of missiles and drones against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and cities during extreme cold, damaging power and heating systems across several regions just ahead of resumed U.S.-brokered talks, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported on Feb. 3.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Strikes Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Ahead of U.S.-Brokered Talks

U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to attend the next round of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 4-5, Axios reported Feb. 2.

Ukraine, Russia, U.S.: Abu Dhabi Talks to Resume as Russian Strikes Kill Civilians, Hit Infrastructure

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a U.S.-proposed pause in Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure had begun overnight and that Ukraine was reciprocating by refraining from attacking Russian energy targets, Interfax-Ukraine reported on Jan. 30.

Ukraine, Russia, U.S.: Narrow Energy Pause Takes Effect as Talks Face Uncertainty

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine, Russia and the United States are preparing additional trilateral meetings for Feb. 1, following their first round of talks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, Interfax-Ukraine reported on Jan. 26. 

Ukraine, Russia, U.S: Trilateral Talks Set To Continue as Territorial Red Lines Hold

Snapshots

United Arab Emirates

Emirati flags on Feb. 4 in Abu Dhabi, UAE. On Feb. 4-5, delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States held a second round of trilateral talks in the United Arab Emirates.

The talks are unlikely to produce a near-term settlement, as Russia will continue to press its territorial demands while using diplomacy to manage sanctions pressure and build leverage ahead of a spring-summer offensive.

The Limits of Russia-Ukraine-U.S. Talks

Assessments

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a meeting with European national security advisors in Kyiv on Jan. 3, 2026. 

The reshuffle seeks to strengthen Zelensky's negotiating position and mitigate the political fallout from a likely unfavorable peace deal amid weakening Western support and Russia's continued battlefield advances.

Ukraine's Government Reshuffle Signals Preparation for a Tough Peace Deal

Greenland

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Palestinian Territories

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Switzerland

A sniper police officer on the Congress hotel during the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum on Jan. 24, 2025, in the Alpine resort of Davos, Switzerland.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Davos, Europe Steps Up Greenland Deployments

Nigeria

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Environment, Science & Technology

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U.S.-Iran Relations

Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Saudi Arabia

Yemen

North Korea

South Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Benin

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Australia

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Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Eurasia

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

A U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier II on Dec. 15 taxis at Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.

The Weekly Rundown: French Budget Deadlock, U.S.-Russia Talks in Miami

A stock photo shows banknotes of the Russian ruble. 

The European Union using immobilized Russian assets to fund financial support for Ukraine will probably not have major reputational or financial consequences for the eurozone.


Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Unlikely To Majorly Impact the Euro

South Africa

Chile

The Ukrainian flag is projected on the facade of Berlaymont, the European Commission headquarters, in Brussels on Nov. 18 to commemorate the Nov. 18, 2024, Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Weekly Rundown: A European Council Decision on Ukraine Financing, South Africa Braces for Commission Findings

<p>Ukraine is the quintessential borderland state. The country borders three former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus and Moldova) and four countries in the European Union (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Ukraine also has a coastline along the Black Sea to the south. Ukraine sits on the Northern European Plain, the area that has historically served as an invasion superhighway going east and west. Beyond its strategic location, Ukraine&#39;s geography has only facilitated such invasions. The country consists of flat and fertile plains, with the exception of the Carpathian Mountain range that arches into the far west of the country. But even these mountains can be penetrated and have not posed a significant barrier to invasion. Given such lack of barriers, Ukraine&#39;s wide-open geography is inextricably linked to that of Russia. Ukraine&#39;s agricultural and industrial belts have traditionally been integrated with Russia&#39;s, and Ukraine serves as the primary transit state for Russian energy exports to Europe. Due to its location and abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, Ukraine has been contested between regional powers for centuries. This competition is currently playing out in an extreme form today, with a Western-backed government confronting a Russian-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Ukraine has several population and political cores, including Lviv in the west, Kiev in the center and the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These different cores make administering Ukraine difficult. The current crisis in Ukraine is therefore merely the latest iteration of the country&#39;s internal divisions and the long-standing East-West conflict over the country. Maintaining sovereignty and unity in the face of this competition is Ukraine&#39;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, Russia: Moscow Downplays Election Reports as Kyiv Denies Plans

Russia, U.S.: Moscow Downplays Economic Reset as Talks Stall

Russia, Ukraine, U.S.: Abu Dhabi Talks End With POW Swap, Agreement to Continue Negotiations

Ukraine, Russia: Second Round of Abu Dhabi Peace Talks Begins Under Fire

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Strikes Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure Ahead of U.S.-Brokered Talks

Ukraine, Russia, U.S.: Abu Dhabi Talks to Resume as Russian Strikes Kill Civilians, Hit Infrastructure

Ukraine, Russia, U.S.: Narrow Energy Pause Takes Effect as Talks Face Uncertainty

Ukraine, Russia, U.S: Trilateral Talks Set To Continue as Territorial Red Lines Hold

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