Ukraine

Russia

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready for negotiations and unspecified "compromises" regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the BBC reported on Dec. 19. 

Ukraine, Russia: Putin Claims Readiness for Negotiations and Compromises

The head of the Russian military's nuclear, biological and chemical protection forces, Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov, was killed in an apparent assassination when an improvised explosive device attached to an electric scooter exploded outside his apartment, AP reported on Dec. 17.

Ukraine, Russia: High-Ranking Russian General Killed in Assassination

Energy

Russia conducted a mass airstrike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure using 93 missiles and over 200 drones, the Financial Times reported on Dec. 13.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Conducts Mass Air Attack on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure

France

Poland

French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Warsaw, Poland, on Dec. 12 to discuss with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk the hypothetical deployment of a post-war peacekeeping force to Ukraine that would preserve Ukrainian sovereignty in the event of a deal between incoming U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war, Politico reported on Dec. 11.

Ukraine, France: Macron To Pitch Deployment to Ukraine as Part of Post-War Security Guarantee

Belarus

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko signed an interstate treaty that obliges the two countries to preserve the inviolability of the external border of the Union State, of which only Russia and Belarus are members, with the use of all available forces and means, including Russian tactical nuclear weapons stationed in Belarus, AP reported Dec. 6.

Belarus, Russia: Governments Sign Treaty on Mutual Security Guarantees

United States

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Ukraine needed to incorporate younger people into the military to succeed in the war with Russia, noting that "right now, 18- to 25-year olds are not in the fight," Reuters reported on Dec. 4. 

U.S., Ukraine: U.S. Calls for Ukraine To Lower Mobilization Age

Russian forces seized almost 235 square kilometers in Ukraine over the past week, setting a weekly record for territory captured in 2024, Agenstvo reported Nov. 26.

Ukraine: Russian Forces Continue Advances in the Southeast

Yemen

Russia recruited hundreds of Yemeni men, some involuntarily, to fight on the front lines in Ukraine as Moscow searches for new manpower in an attempt to avoid another major military mobilization, the Financial Times reported on Nov. 23.

Russia, Yemen: Deeper Russia-Houthi Ties May Lead to Weapons Transfers

Assessments

Syria

Russian troops gather around their military vehicles in northeast Syria on Nov. 1, 2019. 

The collapse of Assad's government in Syria is a blow to the Kremlin's influence in the Middle East and its credibility as a security partner, which will further drive Russia to secure a resounding victory in Ukraine.

What Assad's Fall Means for Russia

Namibia

Tanzania

Uruguay

Kazakhstan

The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. The NATO-Ukraine Council will meet Nov. 26 to discuss Russia's first use of an experimental ballistic missile on Ukrainian territory, which on Nov. 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed involved a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as "Oreshnik."

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan

Columns

On Geopolitics

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

Snapshots

United Kingdom

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

North Korea

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

Russia and Ukraine flags on a cracked wall with the silhouettes of soldiers.

Global Elections

With likely reduced U.S. support, Russia may push for more territory and pressure Kyiv to negotiate as Moscow welcomes Trump's victory.

How the U.S. Election Will Impact the War in Ukraine

Mexico

Iran

Israel

China

Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election event in the early hours of Nov. 6, 2024.

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Science & Technology

Trump will place more tariffs on U.S. trade partners and reduce support for Ukraine, but he will largely maintain Biden's approach to the U.S. tech rivalry with China and the Middle East conflict.

Trump's Win Will Ripple Across the World

Azerbaijan

A natural gas compressor station is pictured on the grounds of the Baltic Sea gas pipeline prior to its opening ceremony in Budno near Goleniow, Poland. 

Despite strong interest in a deal from all parties, constraints may sink negotiations on further Russian gas transit through Ukraine. 

Ukraine Seeks Gas Transit Agreement With Azerbaijan as Gazprom Deal Nears Expiry

Moldova

An illustration of Russian and Moldovan flags.

The near rejection of the vote on EU membership reflects the continued strength of pro-Russian political forces ahead of the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

The Close Results of Moldova's Referendum Raise Fears of a Pro-Russian Government

Mozambique

Brazil

Tunisia

Germany

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.

The changes aim to threaten the West by making even more explicit Moscow's preexisting ability to use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian attacks. But the move won't stop Western efforts to maintain support for Ukraine.

With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

<p>Ukraine is the quintessential borderland state. The country borders three former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus and Moldova) and four countries in the European Union (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Ukraine also has a coastline along the Black Sea to the south. Ukraine sits on the Northern European Plain, the area that has historically served as an invasion superhighway going east and west. Beyond its strategic location, Ukraine&#39;s geography has only facilitated such invasions. The country consists of flat and fertile plains, with the exception of the Carpathian Mountain range that arches into the far west of the country. But even these mountains can be penetrated and have not posed a significant barrier to invasion. Given such lack of barriers, Ukraine&#39;s wide-open geography is inextricably linked to that of Russia. Ukraine&#39;s agricultural and industrial belts have traditionally been integrated with Russia&#39;s, and Ukraine serves as the primary transit state for Russian energy exports to Europe. Due to its location and abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, Ukraine has been contested between regional powers for centuries. This competition is currently playing out in an extreme form today, with a Western-backed government confronting a Russian-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Ukraine has several population and political cores, including Lviv in the west, Kiev in the center and the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These different cores make administering Ukraine difficult. The current crisis in Ukraine is therefore merely the latest iteration of the country&#39;s internal divisions and the long-standing East-West conflict over the country. Maintaining sovereignty and unity in the face of this competition is Ukraine&#39;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, Russia: Putin Claims Readiness for Negotiations and Compromises

Ukraine, Russia: High-Ranking Russian General Killed in Assassination

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Conducts Mass Air Attack on Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure

Ukraine, France: Macron To Pitch Deployment to Ukraine as Part of Post-War Security Guarantee

Belarus, Russia: Governments Sign Treaty on Mutual Security Guarantees

U.S., Ukraine: U.S. Calls for Ukraine To Lower Mobilization Age

Ukraine: Russian Forces Continue Advances in the Southeast

Russia, Yemen: Deeper Russia-Houthi Ties May Lead to Weapons Transfers

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