United States

Ukraine

Military & Security

U.S. President Donald Trump said at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, that Washington would give Ukraine a license to produce Patriot interceptors and "show them how to do it" as Kyiv seeks more air defense missiles to counter Russian missile and drone attacks, Bloomberg reported on July 8. 

Ukraine, U.S.: Trump Floats Patriot License as Ukraine Seeks More Interceptors

Russia

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia launched another deadly attack on Kyiv, Ukraine, killing at least 15 people and injuring 56 others, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 6.

Russia, Ukraine: Another Deadly Strike on Kyiv Points to Hardening Kremlin War Line

Economics

Energy

Ukrainian drones hit Russia's Omsk oil refinery, which is located almost 1,500 miles (2,414 kilometers) east of Ukraine and deep inside Siberia, near Russia's border with Kazakhstan, Kommersant reported on July 6.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Crisis

Russia launched a large overnight missile and drone attack against Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, killing at least 21 people in the capital and injuring more than 90, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported on July 2.

Russia, Ukraine: Deadly Russian Barrage on Kyiv Raises Pressure for More Air Defenses

In a June 26 letter to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Ukraine argued that it could legally attack Russian shadow fleet vessels, contending tankers transporting Russian oil and gas should be treated as ordinary commercial ships, given their role in generating revenue for Russia's war effort, the Financial Times reported June 30.

Ukraine, Russia: IMO Dispute Will Increase Shadow Fleet Scrutiny

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia may import fuel if Moscow reaches supply agreements at acceptable prices, calling imports another step toward stabilizing the domestic market and reducing panic demand, TASS reported June 30.

Russia: Kremlin Confirms Fuel Import Talks as Ukrainian Strikes Strain Supplies

Monaco

Authorities in Monaco announced they are treating a June 29 explosion that seriously injured three people as "attempted murder" and not considering it a terrorist attack, The Guardian reported June 30.

Monaco: Attempted Assassination Targets Ukrainian-Born Tycoon

Russian President Vladimir Putin said he was ready to continue talks with U.S. envoys on ending the war in Ukraine but rejected proposals for a mutual halt to long-range strikes and for limiting fighting to the four occupied Ukrainian regions, Bloomberg reported June 28.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Admits Ukrainian Strikes Are Causing Fuel Shortages, but Rejects Truce Proposal

Assessments

Turkey

Europe

Billboards are seen ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, on June 26, 2026.

Recent U.S. military drawdowns in Germany and threatened reductions in Italy and Spain underscore the stakes of the summit on July 7-8.

Transatlantic Tensions Set To Dominate NATO Summit in Ankara

Media

Cuba

Iran

Forecast Webcast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Third-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Belarus

An officer of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stands on a destroyed bridge over the Dnipro River, which forms the state border between Ukraine and Belarus, on June 1, 2026.

The threat of Ukrainian retaliatory strikes and Belarus's limited offensive capabilities will likely keep Minsk from directly entering the conflict, but the country will remain a critical base for Russian military pressure against Ukraine and NATO.

Despite Russian Pressure, Belarus Remains Unlikely to Join the Ukraine War

A Ukrainian flag flies in Riga, Latvia, on May 18, 2026.

Even a sustainable peace settlement would leave Kyiv grappling with a $600 billion reconstruction bill, demanding high levels of foreign direct investment and stringent governance reforms.

Ukraine's Defense Will Continue To Strain Government Finances

Technicians work at the main blast furnace at the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works on Feb. 12, 2024 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Part two of this report examines how either a comprehensive peace agreement or a severe escalation of the war would affect Ukraine's investment climate.



Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 2

An employee assembles a long-range drone in a workshop of the Fire Point company, which manufactures FP-1 deep-strike drones and FP-2 strike drones, Jan. 29 in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

This two-part report outlines how the trajectory of the war with Russia will act as the ultimate determinant of capital allocation and economic recovery in Ukraine.

Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 1

A view taken on Dec. 13, 2023, shows pumping units at the grounds of a fuel tank farm of Russia's oil pipeline giant Transneft.

The intensifying drone strikes are unlikely to trigger an oil sector crisis or alter Moscow's war calculus, but they will financially drain Russian oil companies, even as high prices buoy the Kremlin's revenues.

Assessing the Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Sector

EU and Ukrainian flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters on Feb. 23, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium.

While a European mediator may unblock frozen peace talks, a durable peace settlement remains unlikely until both Russia and Ukraine conclude that continued war is more costly than compromise.

The Limited Promise of EU Mediation in Ukraine Peace Talks

Snapshots

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

Hungary

Peter Magyar, lead candidate of the Tisza party, speaks to reporters in Budapest on April 13, 2026, after his party's sweeping victory in Hungary's parliamentary elections.

With a two-thirds supermajority, the new government will be able to dismantle Orban's entrenched institutional and economic influence, as well as reset EU relations. But a swift and drastic reversal in Hungary-Ukraine relations remains unlikely.

Hungary's Pro-EU Opposition Wins Big, Ending the Orban Era

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Eurasia

A soldier from the "Taifun" unmanned aerial vehicle unit prepares a new strike drone for flight on April 7, 2026 in Ukraine. 

Although Moscow is threatening retaliation against Baltic states over supposed involvement in Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, the Kremlin will not risk a direct military confrontation with NATO.


Direct NATO-Russia Confrontation in the Baltic Unlikely, Despite Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure 

Israel

Denmark

France

Italy

The European Parliament building in 2019 in Strasbourg, France. Parliament is set to hold a plenary vote March 26 on implementing the 2025 EU‑U.S. trade framework agreement.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Vote on the EU‑U.S. Trade Framework, the Iran Conflict Continues

<p>Ukraine is the quintessential borderland state. The country borders three former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus and Moldova) and four countries in the European Union (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Ukraine also has a coastline along the Black Sea to the south. Ukraine sits on the Northern European Plain, the area that has historically served as an invasion superhighway going east and west. Beyond its strategic location, Ukraine&#39;s geography has only facilitated such invasions. The country consists of flat and fertile plains, with the exception of the Carpathian Mountain range that arches into the far west of the country. But even these mountains can be penetrated and have not posed a significant barrier to invasion. Given such lack of barriers, Ukraine&#39;s wide-open geography is inextricably linked to that of Russia. Ukraine&#39;s agricultural and industrial belts have traditionally been integrated with Russia&#39;s, and Ukraine serves as the primary transit state for Russian energy exports to Europe. Due to its location and abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, Ukraine has been contested between regional powers for centuries. This competition is currently playing out in an extreme form today, with a Western-backed government confronting a Russian-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Ukraine has several population and political cores, including Lviv in the west, Kiev in the center and the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These different cores make administering Ukraine difficult. The current crisis in Ukraine is therefore merely the latest iteration of the country&#39;s internal divisions and the long-standing East-West conflict over the country. Maintaining sovereignty and unity in the face of this competition is Ukraine&#39;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, U.S.: Trump Floats Patriot License as Ukraine Seeks More Interceptors

Russia, Ukraine: Another Deadly Strike on Kyiv Points to Hardening Kremlin War Line

Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Crisis

Russia, Ukraine: Deadly Russian Barrage on Kyiv Raises Pressure for More Air Defenses

Ukraine, Russia: IMO Dispute Will Increase Shadow Fleet Scrutiny

Russia: Kremlin Confirms Fuel Import Talks as Ukrainian Strikes Strain Supplies

Monaco: Attempted Assassination Targets Ukrainian-Born Tycoon

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Admits Ukrainian Strikes Are Causing Fuel Shortages, but Rejects Truce Proposal

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