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Russia

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia fired a nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile at targets in Ukraine's Lviv region during a broader missile and drone attack on energy and civilian infrastructure, Reuters reported on Jan. 9.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Uses Oreshnik Nuclear-Capable Missile in Ukraine

Europe

Politics

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides in Nicosia as Cyprus assumed the European Union's rotating presidency, Reuters reported on Jan. 8. 

Ukraine, EU: Zelensky Pushes EU Accession as Security Guarantees Remain Unclear

Moscow warned that any Western troops, bases or military infrastructure in Ukraine would be classified as foreign intervention and treated as legitimate combat targets by the Russian armed forces, the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement on Jan. 8.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Warns Against Western Troops in Ukraine, Ceasefire Talks Progress

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said there was still no clear answer on whether Ukraine's partners would deliver a strong response to renewed Russian aggression after a ceasefire, noting that any security guarantees would require parliamentary approval, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported on Jan. 7.

Ukraine: Zelensky Flags Enforcement Gaps as Talks Turn to Territory and Zaporizhzhia

Ukraine's allies, representing the "Coalition of the Willing," agreed in Paris, France, to extend multilayered international security guarantees as part of a U.S.-brokered peace proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war, AP reported on Jan. 6.

Ukraine, Europe, U.S.: Security Guarantees for Ukraine Emerge, but Key Details Remain Unresolved

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the dismissal of Vasyl Maliuk as head of the Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, Reuters reported on Jan. 5.

Ukraine: Zelensky Ousts SBU Chief Maliuk in Major Security Reshuffle

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Kyrylo Budanov, the 39-year-old head of Ukraine's military intelligence service (HUR), as his new chief of staff, filling the post vacated in November by Andriy Yermak after a corruption scandal, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported Jan. 2.

Ukraine: Zelensky Names Head of Military Intelligence as New Chief of Staff 

The Kremlin's move to publicize more purported evidence of a Ukrainian attack on Putin's residence comes at a critical point in peace negotiations, reflecting Russia's aim to manipulate the narrative and weaken support for Kyiv. 

Russia: GRU Head Presents U.S. Attache With Data From Alleged Drone Attack on Putin's Residence

Media

Venezuela

China

Forecast Webcast

Economics

Energy

U.S.-China Relations

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Assessments

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

North Korea

South Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

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Democratic Republic of the Congo

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Mali

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Flight routes.

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Snapshots

Eurasia

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

Central African Republic

Guinea

Cyprus

Kosovo

The Bulgarian flag and the European flag waving in the wind.

The Weekly Rundown: Bulgaria Adopts the Euro, U.S.-Venezuela Tensions Persist

A U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier II on Dec. 15 taxis at Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.

The Weekly Rundown: French Budget Deadlock, U.S.-Russia Talks in Miami

A stock photo shows banknotes of the Russian ruble. 

The European Union using immobilized Russian assets to fund financial support for Ukraine will probably not have major reputational or financial consequences for the eurozone.


Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Unlikely To Majorly Impact the Euro

South Africa

Chile

France

The Ukrainian flag is projected on the facade of Berlaymont, the European Commission headquarters, in Brussels on Nov. 18 to commemorate the Nov. 18, 2024, Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Weekly Rundown: A European Council Decision on Ukraine Financing, South Africa Braces for Commission Findings

Tanzania

Hong Kong SAR, China

Protesters help an injured demonstrator near burning barricades amid clashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on Oct. 29, 2025. 

The Weekly Rundown: Unrest in Tanzania, an EU Summit in Ukraine

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by Kremlin economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, meets with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 2, 2025.

Fundamental disagreements between Ukraine and Russia over territorial concessions and security guarantees suggest that peace negotiations are unlikely to lead to a comprehensive breakthrough.

Despite U.S. Diplomatic Push, Ukraine Peace Still a Long Way Off

Honduras

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their bilateral meeting during the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

Global Trade

The Weekly Rundown: Putin-Modi Meeting, Honduras General Election

Columns

A Ukrainian serviceman from the 24th mechanized brigade prepares a Magura night drone to flight toward the front line in the area of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region late on April 29, 2025.

Ukraine's success in using cheap drones against Russia reveals how smaller states can leverage accessible technologies to impose disproportionate and sustained costs on a materially superior adversary.

Drones Are Redefining Asymmetric Warfare

<p>Ukraine is the quintessential borderland state. The country borders three former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus and Moldova) and four countries in the European Union (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Ukraine also has a coastline along the Black Sea to the south. Ukraine sits on the Northern European Plain, the area that has historically served as an invasion superhighway going east and west. Beyond its strategic location, Ukraine&#39;s geography has only facilitated such invasions. The country consists of flat and fertile plains, with the exception of the Carpathian Mountain range that arches into the far west of the country. But even these mountains can be penetrated and have not posed a significant barrier to invasion. Given such lack of barriers, Ukraine&#39;s wide-open geography is inextricably linked to that of Russia. Ukraine&#39;s agricultural and industrial belts have traditionally been integrated with Russia&#39;s, and Ukraine serves as the primary transit state for Russian energy exports to Europe. Due to its location and abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, Ukraine has been contested between regional powers for centuries. This competition is currently playing out in an extreme form today, with a Western-backed government confronting a Russian-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Ukraine has several population and political cores, including Lviv in the west, Kiev in the center and the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These different cores make administering Ukraine difficult. The current crisis in Ukraine is therefore merely the latest iteration of the country&#39;s internal divisions and the long-standing East-West conflict over the country. Maintaining sovereignty and unity in the face of this competition is Ukraine&#39;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Uses Oreshnik Nuclear-Capable Missile in Ukraine

Ukraine, EU: Zelensky Pushes EU Accession as Security Guarantees Remain Unclear

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Warns Against Western Troops in Ukraine, Ceasefire Talks Progress

Ukraine: Zelensky Flags Enforcement Gaps as Talks Turn to Territory and Zaporizhzhia

Ukraine, Europe, U.S.: Security Guarantees for Ukraine Emerge, but Key Details Remain Unresolved

Ukraine: Zelensky Ousts SBU Chief Maliuk in Major Security Reshuffle

Ukraine: Zelensky Names Head of Military Intelligence as New Chief of Staff

Russia: GRU Head Presents U.S. Attache With Data From Alleged Drone Attack on Putin's Residence

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