Ukraine

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A Russian offensive in the Ukrainian-occupied Korenevsky and Sudzhansky districts of Russia's Kursk region resulted in Ukrainian troops losing the largest piece of their salient in the region since Sept. 14, Agentstvo reported on Oct. 11.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Conducts Largest Attack on Kursk Salient in Over a Month

Russian cyber threat groups are increasingly engaging in cyberespionage campaigns rather than disruptive cyberattacks in Ukraine in an effort to enable Russian battlefield gains, U.S. National Security Agency official Dave Luber claimed during a conference on Oct. 9.

Ukraine: Russian Cyber Activity Shifting From Disruptive Attacks to Espionage, Says Top U.S. Official

North Korea

South Korea

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun told parliamentarians during a hearing that North Korea is highly likely to deploy members of its regular armed forces to Ukraine in support of Russia, The Moscow Times reported on Oct. 8.

North Korea, Russia: Pyongyang Deploys Troops to Ukraine in Support of Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed into law bills suspending criminal proceedings against suspects, criminal defendants and convicts in exchange for their participation in the Russia-Ukraine war through their mobilization or contract service, RBC Group reported on Oct. 2.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Signs Law Suspending Criminal Proceedings for Serving in War

United States

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Economics

European intelligence sources claim that Russian arms producer IEMZ Kupol was working with local experts to produce in China a new long-range attack drone, the Garpiya-3 (G3), for use on the Ukrainian battlefield, according to Reuters on Sept. 25.

China, Russia: Chinese Factory Producing Attack Drones for Russia

Russian forces began storming the eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region, entering the town for the first time, Reuters reported on Sept. 24.

Russia, Ukraine: Russian Forces Commence Storm of Vuhledar

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in the United States for an extended visit, where he will present a "victory plan" to U.S. President Joe Biden on Sept. 26, The Kyiv Independent reported on Sept. 22. 

Ukraine, U.S.: Zelensky Will Share 'Victory Plan' During U.S. Visit

Energy

During a visit to Kyiv, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled plans for the European Union to loan up to 35 billion euros ($39.1 billion) to Ukraine using the profits from frozen Russian assets, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 20. 

EU, Ukraine: EU Unveils 35 Billion Euro Loan Plan Ahead of Winter

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A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

Snapshots

A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.

The changes aim to threaten the West by making even more explicit Moscow's preexisting ability to use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian attacks. But the move won't stop Western efforts to maintain support for Ukraine.

With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

A man looks at the road blocked by striped tape on December 13, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine, following two nights of ballistic missile attacks on the city.

Ukraine faces its most challenging post-invasion winter yet due to intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure that may drive more Ukrainians to flee and worsen the country's manpower shortage.

Ukraine Faces Harshest Winter Yet Amid Intensified Russian Attacks on Energy Infrastructure

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine on June 15, 2024, in Lucerne, Switzerland. 

If elected U.S. president, Harris would likely initially maintain Biden's approach to Ukraine, but new White House officials, political pressure and events on the battlefield could change her administration's policies and strategy.

How Could a Harris Presidency Impact the War in Ukraine?

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky holds a flag during a ceremony on Ukraine's Independence Day on Aug. 24, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine. 

The Weekly Rundown: Gaza Cease-Fire Talks Resume, Ukraine Observes Third Post-Invasion Independence Day

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives for a working session on the second day of the G-7 summit in Schloss Elmau, Germany, on June 27, 2022. 

The trip is likely aimed at addressing backlash from the prime minister's recent visit to Russia, as India tries to mitigate Western criticism and reinforce its neutrality in the Ukraine conflict.

Modi's Upcoming Visit to Ukraine Reflects India's Balancing Act

Columns

On Geopolitics

A recreational sailing yacht suspected of use in the sabotage of undersea gas pipelines stands in dry dock on the headland of Bug on Ruegen Island on March 17, 2023, near Dranske, Germany. In a high-profile article published late on Aug. 14, The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea in late September 2022.

The Wall Street Journal provided the latest and arguably most detailed publicly available account that Ukraine was responsible for sabotaging the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, a reminder to us of the importance of acknowledging and doing our best to mitigate our analytic biases.

What New Revelations About the Nord Stream Attack Can Remind Us About Analytical Biases

Podcasts

How would a Trump administration's Ukraine policy differ from a Harris administration's Ukraine policy? 

Essential Geopolitics: What a Trump Presidency Would Mean for the Russia-Ukraine War

Then-U.S. President Donald Trump speaks with media on Sept. 21, 2017, before meeting Ukraine's then-president Petro Poroshenko on the sidelines of the 72nd U.N. General Assembly. 

If Trump returns to the White House, he would likely deprioritize U.S. support for Ukraine, weakening Kyiv's negotiating position vis-a-vis Russia while dimming the prospects of temporary or lasting peace.

How Could a Second Trump Presidency Impact the War in Ukraine?

Kenya

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U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during a press conference at the 75th NATO Summit in Washington, D.C., on July 11, 2024. 

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Biden's exit from the U.S. presidential race will free him to pursue more aggressive action against Russia over Ukraine and increase pressure on Israel to end its war with Hamas. 

What To Expect from Biden's Foreign Policy Farewell Tour

U.S. President Joe Biden meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington D.C. on July 11, 2024.

The Western alliance's failure to provide Ukraine with decisive security guarantees and material support will likely enable Russia to maintain its war until Kyiv enters talks on Moscow's terms. 

The NATO Summit Leaves Ukraine Wanting

<p>Ukraine is the quintessential borderland state. The country borders three former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus and Moldova) and four countries in the European Union (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Ukraine also has a coastline along the Black Sea to the south. Ukraine sits on the Northern European Plain, the area that has historically served as an invasion superhighway going east and west. Beyond its strategic location, Ukraine&#39;s geography has only facilitated such invasions. The country consists of flat and fertile plains, with the exception of the Carpathian Mountain range that arches into the far west of the country. But even these mountains can be penetrated and have not posed a significant barrier to invasion. Given such lack of barriers, Ukraine&#39;s wide-open geography is inextricably linked to that of Russia. Ukraine&#39;s agricultural and industrial belts have traditionally been integrated with Russia&#39;s, and Ukraine serves as the primary transit state for Russian energy exports to Europe. Due to its location and abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, Ukraine has been contested between regional powers for centuries. This competition is currently playing out in an extreme form today, with a Western-backed government confronting a Russian-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Ukraine has several population and political cores, including Lviv in the west, Kiev in the center and the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These different cores make administering Ukraine difficult. The current crisis in Ukraine is therefore merely the latest iteration of the country&#39;s internal divisions and the long-standing East-West conflict over the country. Maintaining sovereignty and unity in the face of this competition is Ukraine&#39;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Conducts Largest Attack on Kursk Salient in Over a Month

Ukraine: Russian Cyber Activity Shifting From Disruptive Attacks to Espionage, Says Top U.S. Official

North Korea, Russia: Pyongyang Deploys Troops to Ukraine in Support of Russia

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Signs Law Suspending Criminal Proceedings for Serving in War

China, Russia: Chinese Factory Producing Attack Drones for Russia

Russia, Ukraine: Russian Forces Commence Storm of Vuhledar

Ukraine, U.S.: Zelensky Will Share 'Victory Plan' During U.S. Visit

EU, Ukraine: EU Unveils 35 Billion Euro Loan Plan Ahead of Winter

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