Ukraine

Russia

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia struck a facility in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro using what Russian President Vladimir Putin said was a new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile, or IRBM, named Oreshnik allegedly in response to aggressive actions of NATO countries against Russia, Reuters reported on Nov. 21. 

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Strikes Ukrainian City Using New Missile

Vladimir Putin is open to peace talks in Ukraine mediated by Donald Trump, provided they exclude significant Russian territorial concessions and require Kyiv to abandon NATO aspirations in favor of neutrality, Reuters reported Nov. 20, citing five sources close to the Kremlin. 

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Sources Say Putin to Demand Limits on Ukrainian Security 

United States

Politics

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree formalizing changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine that lowered the threshold for nuclear use and clarified the list of threats that could warrant a nuclear response, including aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear-armed country, Reuters reported on Nov. 19.

Russia: Putin Signed Russia's Revised Nuclear Doctrine

On the 1000th day of the Russia-Ukraine war, Ukrainian forces carried out their first attack with U.S.-produced ATACMS missiles inside of Russia, striking an ammunition storage facility in Karashev in the Bryansk region bordering Ukraine, Bloomberg reported Nov. 19.

Ukraine: Country Conducts First Strike Inside Russia Using U.S.-Made ATACMS Missiles

China

Europe

Economics

The European Union has "conclusive," "credible" and "convincing" proof that China is selling armed drones to Russia for use in its Ukraine war, according to South China Morning Post sources on Nov. 15.

EU, China: Evidence of Chinese Drone Sales to Russia Risks EU Sanctions

North Korea

According to Ukrainian officials and a new U.S. assessment, 50,000 Russian and North Korean forces will begin a renewed assault on Ukrainian positions in Russia’s Kursk region in the coming days, The New York Times reported on Nov. 10.

Russia, Ukraine, North Korea: Russia To Step Up Attacks on Kursk in Coming Days

France

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, France, and discussed bilateral and broader European cooperation on a range of issues, including stemming illegal migration across the English Channel and the likely implications of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s second term on the war in Ukraine and Europe’s defense, the BBC reported on Nov. 11.

U.K., France: Starmer and Macron Pledge Unity on European Defense and Support for Ukraine

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's transition team is discussing elements of a "peace plan" for the Russia-Ukraine war as part of a break from outgoing President Joe Biden's approach of letting Kyiv dictate when peace talks should begin, The Wall Street Journal reported on Nov. 7.

U.S., Ukraine, Russia: Alleged Trump Peace Plan Includes NATO Freeze

Columns

On Geopolitics

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

Snapshots

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

Assessments

Russia and Ukraine flags on a cracked wall with the silhouettes of soldiers.

Global Elections

With likely reduced U.S. support, Russia may push for more territory and pressure Kyiv to negotiate as Moscow welcomes Trump's victory.

How the U.S. Election Will Impact the War in Ukraine

Mexico

Iran

Israel

Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election event in the early hours of Nov. 6, 2024.

Environment, Science & Technology

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Science & Technology

Trump will place more tariffs on U.S. trade partners and reduce support for Ukraine, but he will largely maintain Biden's approach to the U.S. tech rivalry with China and the Middle East conflict.

Trump's Win Will Ripple Across the World

Azerbaijan

A natural gas compressor station is pictured on the grounds of the Baltic Sea gas pipeline prior to its opening ceremony in Budno near Goleniow, Poland. 

Energy

Despite strong interest in a deal from all parties, constraints may sink negotiations on further Russian gas transit through Ukraine. 

Ukraine Seeks Gas Transit Agreement With Azerbaijan as Gazprom Deal Nears Expiry

Moldova

An illustration of Russian and Moldovan flags.

The near rejection of the vote on EU membership reflects the continued strength of pro-Russian political forces ahead of the country's 2025 parliamentary election.

The Close Results of Moldova's Referendum Raise Fears of a Pro-Russian Government

Mozambique

Brazil

Tunisia

Germany

A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

A Russian RS-24 Yars nuclear missile complex arrives during the main rehearsals of the Victory Day military parade in Moscow's Red Square on May 5, 2024.

The changes aim to threaten the West by making even more explicit Moscow's preexisting ability to use nuclear weapons in response to Ukrainian attacks. But the move won't stop Western efforts to maintain support for Ukraine.

With an Updated Nuclear Doctrine, Russia Looks To Slow Western Support for Ukraine

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

A man looks at the road blocked by striped tape on December 13, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine, following two nights of ballistic missile attacks on the city.

Ukraine faces its most challenging post-invasion winter yet due to intensified Russian attacks on energy infrastructure that may drive more Ukrainians to flee and worsen the country's manpower shortage.

Ukraine Faces Harshest Winter Yet Amid Intensified Russian Attacks on Energy Infrastructure

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during the Summit on Peace in Ukraine on June 15, 2024, in Lucerne, Switzerland. 

If elected U.S. president, Harris would likely initially maintain Biden's approach to Ukraine, but new White House officials, political pressure and events on the battlefield could change her administration's policies and strategy.

How Could a Harris Presidency Impact the War in Ukraine?

<p>Ukraine is the quintessential borderland state. The country borders three former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus and Moldova) and four countries in the European Union (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Ukraine also has a coastline along the Black Sea to the south. Ukraine sits on the Northern European Plain, the area that has historically served as an invasion superhighway going east and west. Beyond its strategic location, Ukraine&#39;s geography has only facilitated such invasions. The country consists of flat and fertile plains, with the exception of the Carpathian Mountain range that arches into the far west of the country. But even these mountains can be penetrated and have not posed a significant barrier to invasion. Given such lack of barriers, Ukraine&#39;s wide-open geography is inextricably linked to that of Russia. Ukraine&#39;s agricultural and industrial belts have traditionally been integrated with Russia&#39;s, and Ukraine serves as the primary transit state for Russian energy exports to Europe. Due to its location and abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, Ukraine has been contested between regional powers for centuries. This competition is currently playing out in an extreme form today, with a Western-backed government confronting a Russian-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Ukraine has several population and political cores, including Lviv in the west, Kiev in the center and the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These different cores make administering Ukraine difficult. The current crisis in Ukraine is therefore merely the latest iteration of the country&#39;s internal divisions and the long-standing East-West conflict over the country. Maintaining sovereignty and unity in the face of this competition is Ukraine&#39;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Strikes Ukrainian City Using New Missile

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Sources Say Putin to Demand Limits on Ukrainian Security

Russia: Putin Signed Russia's Revised Nuclear Doctrine

Ukraine: Country Conducts First Strike Inside Russia Using U.S.-Made ATACMS Missiles

EU, China: Evidence of Chinese Drone Sales to Russia Risks EU Sanctions

Russia, Ukraine, North Korea: Russia To Step Up Attacks on Kursk in Coming Days

U.K., France: Starmer and Macron Pledge Unity on European Defense and Support for Ukraine

U.S., Ukraine, Russia: Alleged Trump Peace Plan Includes NATO Freeze

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