France

Economics

Politics

France's National Assembly unanimously voted in support of a "special law" authorizing the government to continue collecting taxes and renew state spending at the 2024 level until a new budget for 2025 is adopted, Le Figaro reported on Dec. 16.

France: National Assembly Unanimously Supports Temporary 2024 Budget Roll-Over

President Emmanuel Macron appointed centrist Francois Bayrou as France's new prime minister, Le Figaro reported on Dec. 13. 

France: President Macron Appoints Centrist Francois Bayrou as Prime Minister

Poland

Ukraine

Russia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Warsaw, Poland, on Dec. 12 to discuss with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk the hypothetical deployment of a post-war peacekeeping force to Ukraine that would preserve Ukrainian sovereignty in the event of a deal between incoming U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war, Politico reported on Dec. 11.

Ukraine, France: Macron To Pitch Deployment to Ukraine as Part of Post-War Security Guarantee

Chad

Military & Security

France withdrew two of its three Mirage 2000 fighter jets deployed to Chad, Reuters reported Dec. 10.

Chad, France: France Begins Withdrawal of Fighter Jets 

Ousted French Prime Minister Michel Barnier formally presented his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron a day after his government lost a vote of no confidence in the National Assembly on Dec. 4, France 24 reported on Dec. 5.

France: Barnier Formally Resigns as Macron Looks for a Replacement

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier's minority government lost a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly, with 331 lawmakers voting in favor of a motion presented by the left-wing New Popular Front alliance, Le Figaro reported on Dec. 4.

France: Parliament Topples Minority Government in No-Confidence Vote

Niger

Iran

France's state-owned uranium miner Orano said Nigerien authorities had taken over the operations of its Somair mine, Le Monde reported on Dec. 4.

Niger: France's Orano Lost Operational Control of Somair Mine

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier triggered Article 49.3 of the French Constitution to pass the social security financing bill for 2025 -- part of the government's budget proposal for next year -- without a vote in the National Assembly, paving the way for a no-confidence motion from opposition parties, Le Figaro reported on Dec. 2.

France: Government Forces Social Security Bill Through Parliament, Opening Door to No-Confidence Vote

Assessments

Mozambique

Syria

Anti-riot police officers with dogs walk past burning barricades made by protesters in Maputo, Mozambique, on Nov. 7, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A New French Government, a Ruling on Mozambique's Disputed Election

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

Europe

Germany

(From left to right) Argentine President Javier Milei, Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena pose for a photo during the Mercosur summit in Montevideo on Dec. 6, 2024. 

The agreement offers significant market access and diversification opportunities for both trade blocs, but it also faces a complex ratification process and potential political backlash in Europe.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Ghana

Turkey

South Korea

Protesters call for the ouster of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol outside the National Assembly in Seoul on Dec. 6, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Vote in South Korea, Syria's Government Wavers

Snapshots

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

United States

United Kingdom

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

The U.S. and EU flags.

Cyber

Energy

Global Elections

Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. 

What Trump's Return to Office Means for the European Union

Columns

On Geopolitics

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

Media

Mexico

China

Forecast Webcast

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Italy

A Russian warship transits the Neva River in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

Russia's risk tolerance for physical and cyber operations against Western targets appears to be increasing, raising the likelihood of more disruptive and/or violent attacks.

A More Brazen Russia Slowly Raises the Specter of a NATO Confrontation

Incoming Prime Minister Michel Barnier (R) delivers a speech next to outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Sept. 5 in Paris. Barnier will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly.

France's new prime minister will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly. While the government will still have options to reduce the country's fiscal deficit and avoid a financial crisis, these would come at the cost of severe social unrest and political volatility.

France's New Prime Minister Will Struggle to Pass Laws and Avoid Financial Woes

Cambodia

Japan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Afghanistan

The Geopolitics of Water

The escalating impacts of climate change and water scarcity will inflame tensions between Central Asian countries, raising the risk of violent state conflict in the coming decades. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Looming Threat of Central Asian 'Water Wars'

Denmark

Sweden

Norway

Austria

Slovenia

Hungarian police officers check cars at the Nickelsdorf-Hegyeshalom border crossing on the Austrian-Hungarian border on March 18, 2020. 

Increasing levels of migration, terrorism activity and Russian aggression in Europe are driving Schengen countries to tighten their border controls, heralding a more spotty functioning of the passport-free travel zone.

Growing Border Controls Threaten Europe's Schengen Area

<p>France is a country in Western Europe bound in the south by the Alps, Pyrenees Mountains and the Mediterranean Sea. To the west and north is the Atlantic Ocean, and on its eastern border lies the river Rhine and the low mountains of the Ardennes, Vosges and Jura. Mountains, rivers and seas help protect France at all points but one: the North European Plain. As a result, France&#39;s main geographic challenge is safeguarding its eastern border on the path of this historic invasion route. The lack of internal geographic barriers contributed to France&#39;s social cohesion, which in turn led France to become one of the world&#39;s first modern nation-states. The Beauce region represents France&#39;s core. Its navigable rivers, warm climate, sufficient rainfall and fertile soils have made France one of the world&#39;s leading agricultural powers. At the extreme northern border of the Beauce region, where the rivers Marne and Seine meet, lies Paris &mdash; France&#39;s economic and political center. Paris&#39; strategic location on these rivers gives it administrative control of trading routes from the Beauce region to the rest of France and Europe In modern times, the most existential threats to France have come from its powerful eastern neighbor, Germany. Between 1871 and 1945, France and Germany fought three major wars &mdash; all on the North European Plain. After World War II, France attempted to contain Germany largely through the creation of the European Union. The economic and political crisis plaguing Europe has put France&#39;s containment strategy into question.</p>

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

The Fate of the Eurozone

European Disintegration

SITUATION REPORTS

France: National Assembly Unanimously Supports Temporary 2024 Budget Roll-Over

France: President Macron Appoints Centrist Francois Bayrou as Prime Minister

Ukraine, France: Macron To Pitch Deployment to Ukraine as Part of Post-War Security Guarantee

Chad, France: France Begins Withdrawal of Fighter Jets

France: Barnier Formally Resigns as Macron Looks for a Replacement

France: Parliament Topples Minority Government in No-Confidence Vote

Niger: France's Orano Lost Operational Control of Somair Mine

France: Government Forces Social Security Bill Through Parliament, Opening Door to No-Confidence Vote

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