Serbia

Kosovo

Military & Security

Serbia reduced the overall number of troops stationed near its border with Kosovo from 8,350 to 4,500, and Serbia's army chief Gen. Milan Mojsilovic said the country has not "raised the level of readiness," Reuters reported on Oct. 2.

Kosovo, Serbia: Serbia Scales Back Military Presence at Border With Kosovo

Politics

White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby announced Sept. 29 that the United States is monitoring an "unprecedented" deployment of Serbian troops, artillery and tanks along the border with Kosovo.

Kosovo: Serbia Reportedly Deploys Large Military Contingent Toward Kosovo Border

Four people were killed in the village of Banjska, which is located near the ethnically divided city of Mitrovica in Kosovo's Serb-majority northern region, following a shootout between armed ethnic Serb militants and Kosovo's police forces, Reuters reported on Sept. 24.

Kosovo, Serbia: New Clashes May Indicate Worsening Security Environment

Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti presented a five-point plan to de-escalate tensions in the country's Serb-majority north that would include new local elections and a reduction in special police units in the region following pressure from the European Union and the United States, Reuters reported on June 13.

Kosovo, Serbia: Pristina Presents Plan to Defuse Tensions in Kosovo's Serb-Majority North

Violence erupted in Kosovo's northern Serb-majority municipality of Zvecan between ethnic Serbs and Kosovo's police and international peacekeepers, injuring at least 30 members of the NATO-led international force KFOR, Reuters reported May 29.

Kosovo, Serbia: NATO Peacekeepers Injured as Violence Erupts in Northern Kosovo

Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti said he accepted a Franco-German proposal aimed at normalizing relations with Serbia after a meeting with Miroslav Lajcak, the EU special representative for the Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue, Reuters reported Feb. 6.

Serbia, Kosovo: Pristina Accepts EU Plan for Normalization With Serbia

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced plans to launch a public debate in Serbia over a Franco-German proposal to normalize relations with Kosovo, Bloomberg reported Jan. 24.

Kosovo, Serbia: Vucic Opens to Franco-German Plan for Kosovo, Fearing International Isolation

Ethnic Serbs in Kosovo have agreed to start removing the roadblocks they’ve installed across several Serb-majority municipalities and border crossings in northern Kosovo in recent weeks following the arrest of a former Serb police officer, Reuters reported Dec. 28. 

Kosovo, Serbia: Ethnic Serbs in Northern Kosovo to Start Removing Barricades

Snapshots

Authorities search a building in Mitrovica, northern Kosovo, on Sept. 29, 2023, after the killing of a police officer.

With the prospect of EU membership frozen, Belgrade and Pristina will be incentivized to ramp up their diplomatic feud and inflammatory rhetoric, raising the risk of violence between Kosovo's Serb and Albanian populations.

For Serbia and Kosovo, Stalled EU Membership Bids Will Disincentivize Reconciliation

Assessments

Russia

NATO peacekeepers stand guard as hospital employees lead a protest march of ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo on June 19, 2023. 

Russian information campaigns are fomenting EU accession fatigue and anti-Western narratives in Serbia and raising risks of violence in northern Kosovo.

The Threat of Russian Influence Operations in Serbia and Kosovo

NATO soldiers serving in Kosovo patrol next to a road barricade set up by ethnic Serbs near the town of Zubin Potok on Aug. 1, 2022. 

The Balkan neighbors' latest flare-up in tensions will undermine an EU-brokered normalization plan and risks spurring more violence in northern Kosovo.

Are Serbia and Kosovo Headed for Another War?

Europe

People walk past a mural reading ''Republic of Kosova'' in Pristina on Feb. 27, 2023, as the European Union hosts talks between the rival leaders of Kosovo and Serbia.

The deal marks a key first step in avoiding another conflict in the Balkans. But the true test will be getting Belgrade and Pristina to ink a legally binding comprehensive agreement.

The Promise and Potential Pitfalls of the EU-Sponsored Pact Between Serbia and Kosovo

China

Vietnam

India

Officials stand near flags of participating countries and organizations at the venue where the second meeting of the G-20 Finance and Central Bank Deputies under India's G-20 presidency has begun Feb. 22, 2023, in Bengaluru, India.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Serbian and Kosovar Leaders Meet, G-20 Meetings Reveal Divergent Global Priorities

Media

Podcasts

In this episode of the Essential Geopolitics podcast, we look at rising tensions between Kosovo and Serbia.

Essential Geopolitics: Could Kosovo-Serbia Tensions Bring a New War to Europe?

NATO soldiers patrol a road near the town of Zvecan in northern Kosovo on Oct. 12, 2022.

EU diplomatic pressure and the presence of NATO troops in the region will deter Serbia and Kosovo from letting recent border clashes devolve into mass violence.

Escalating Unrest in North Kosovo Does Not Portend a Return to War

Graphics

Trucks loaded with sand form a barricade in a road near the Kosovar town of Zubin Potok on Aug. 1.

The recent flare-up in tensions between Kosovo and Serbia does not suggest that Kosovo or the wider Western Balkans region is in imminent danger of collapsing into widespread violence, but such ethnic grievances will continue to destabilize the area.

Talks in Brussels to Keep Serbia and Kosovo Looking Westward 

Columns

On Security

Turkey

North Macedonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Croatia

Albania

Montenegro

Demonstrators in Belgrade, Serbia, hold up Serbian flags and a photo of Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 24, 2022, during a rally in support of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

In the second part of this series, we explore China and Russia's interests in the Balkans and what their activities may mean for the region's long-term stability.

The Risk of Another Balkans War, Part 2: Russian and Chinese Influence

Greece

Slovenia

NATO soldiers patrol a roadblock set up by ethnic Serbs near Zubin Potok, a town in northern Kosovo, on Aug. 1, 2022. 

Economics

Social Issues

Despite ethnically-tinged tensions between Kosovo and Serbia that most recently made the news, there appear to be numerous restraints on a potential return to widespread regional conflict. 

The Risk of Another Balkans War, Part 1: Placing Recent Flashpoints in Context

Guinea

United States

Iran

Japan

F-16 aircraft at the Danish Air Show on June 19, 2022, at Karup Airport, Denmark. Turkey wants modernization kits for its existing F-16s plus more jets, but some members of Congress remain opposed to Turkey obtaining more such advanced military technology, citing concerns about Turkey's warm ties with Russia.

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey and the U.S. Talk F-16s, Kosovo's and Serbia's Leaders Meet

Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti (right) and his Albanian counterpart, Edi Rama, hold a joint press conference in Pristina on Sept. 27, 2021. 

Security

European Disintegration

While the formation of a “Greater Albania” is unlikely, Kosovo will continue hinting at the idea during its disputes with Serbia, which could renew unrest in the region.

The Threat of Albania-Kosovo Unification Risks Destabilizing the Balkans

Kosovo is a landlocked, partially recognized country in the Western Balkans. It is surrounded by mountains, including the Sar Mountains in the south and southwest and the Kopaonik Mountains in the north. In the center of the country, the Metohija and Kosovo plains provide some of Kosovo's most fertile lands. Kosovo's economic and political core is Pristina, the country's capital and most populated city. Kosovo is one of the smallest countries in Europe, with a population of roughly 2 million people.     In the Middle Ages, Kosovo's territory was the heart of the Serbian medieval state and was the seat of the Serbian Orthodox Church. But the territory fell under Ottoman control in the 15th century, a situation that lasted for five centuries. After World War II, Kosovo became an autonomous province within Yugoslavia. The 20th century saw frictions between ethnic Serbian and Albanian communities in Kosovo, which peaked during the Kosovo War of 1998 and 1999. The war only ended after the intervention of the United Nations and NATO.     Kosovo unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in 2008. While the country is recognized by more than a hundred members of the United Nations, including the United States and most members of the European Union, several countries such as Russia and China do not recognize it as a sovereign state. Under EU sponsorship, Serbia and Kosovo are negotiating a normalization of their relations, but significant problems remain, including the status of areas with significant Serbian populations.     Kosovo has introduced some reforms since independence, but it still has weak economic and political institutions and a large informal sector, while remittances and foreign aid remain important for the economy. Kosovo's partial recognition is a significant obstacle in the country's bid to join international organizations such as the United Nations and the European Union and to better integrate into the global economy. Its main challenge is therefore to gain full international recognition and to reach some degree of stability after decades of turbulence.

SITUATION REPORTS

Kosovo, Serbia: Serbia Scales Back Military Presence at Border With Kosovo

Kosovo: Serbia Reportedly Deploys Large Military Contingent Toward Kosovo Border

Kosovo, Serbia: New Clashes May Indicate Worsening Security Environment

Kosovo, Serbia: Pristina Presents Plan to Defuse Tensions in Kosovo's Serb-Majority North

Kosovo, Serbia: NATO Peacekeepers Injured as Violence Erupts in Northern Kosovo

Serbia, Kosovo: Pristina Accepts EU Plan for Normalization With Serbia

Kosovo, Serbia: Vucic Opens to Franco-German Plan for Kosovo, Fearing International Isolation

Kosovo, Serbia: Ethnic Serbs in Northern Kosovo to Start Removing Barricades

Forecasts

ANALYSES

SECTIONS

Explore

Subscribe

Help & Support