France

Poland

Ukraine

Russia

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Warsaw, Poland, on Dec. 12 to discuss with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk the hypothetical deployment of a post-war peacekeeping force to Ukraine that would preserve Ukrainian sovereignty in the event of a deal between incoming U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war, Politico reported on Dec. 11.

Ukraine, France: Macron To Pitch Deployment to Ukraine as Part of Post-War Security Guarantee

Americas

Europe

Economics

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he will not endorse a free trade agreement close to finalization between the European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc, joining French President Emmanuel Macron in his vocal opposition to the deal, the Financial Times reported Nov. 27.

Poland: Country Joins France in Open Opposition to EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Social Issues

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Oct. 12 that Poland will temporarily suspend the right to claim asylum in the country and will not implement the European Union's new migration and asylum pact during a rally of his Civic Platform (KO) party, the largest in Poland's ruling coalition, Reuters reported Oct. 14.

Poland: Tusk Proposes Temporary Suspension of Asylum Rights

India

Military & Security

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Ukraine on Aug. 23 for the first time since the Russia-Ukraine war began, likely later the week of Aug. 19, The Times of India reported on Aug. 19.

India: Prime Minister Modi To Visit Ukraine and Poland

Germany

Energy

The German authorities issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian man in connection to the 2022 attack on Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea, Reuters reported on Aug. 14, citing a spokesperson for the Polish prosecutor's office, which has received the request from Berlin.

Germany, Ukraine: Germany Issued Arrest Warrant for Ukrainian Citizen Over Nord Stream Sabotage

United States

Norway

Slovenia

Belarus

Russia is releasing eight political prisoners and eight citizens of Western governments in exchange for eight Russian intelligence officers and cybercriminals in the largest prisoner exchange between Russia and the West since the Cold War, CBS reported on Aug. 1. 

Russia, U.S.: Largest Prisoner Exchange Since Cold War Releases 24 People

Canada

Australia

Greece

Sweden

United Kingdom

Belgium

Austria

Switzerland

Italy

Afghanistan

The Afghan Taliban's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it would not honor documents, including passports and visas, issued by diplomats linked to the former Western-backed Islamic Republic of Afghanistan at several missions in Europe and other Western countries, AP reported on July 30. 

Afghanistan: Taliban Disavows Some Afghan Diplomatic Missions in Europe and Other Western Countries

Poland's coalition government failed to pass legislation seeking to decriminalize abortion after a majority of lawmakers in the lower house of the National Assembly rejected a bill that would have removed penalties for doctors helping women seeking to terminate pregnancies, Reuters reported on July 12. 

Poland: Rejection of Abortion Decriminalization Bill Highlights Ideological Differences Within Ruling Coalition

Snapshots

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on July 2 in Warsaw.

Global Elections

Poland's ongoing political volatility will continue to create policy and economic uncertainty leading up to the presidential election in mid-2025. If this persists after the election, it could have long-term negative effects on the country's appeal to investors.

Political Polarization Fuels Uncertainty Ahead of Poland's 2025 Presidential Election

Assessments

Iran

Israel

Japan

Philippines

South Korea

People attend an April 5, 2024, funeral procession for seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in an Israeli strike in Syria.

U.S.-China Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The Threat of Iranian Retaliation Against Israel, Polish Local Elections

Polish President Andrzej Duda (left) and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (right) shake hands during their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw, Poland, on Jan. 15, 2024. 

Growing tensions between the new government and key institutions still loyal to its predecessor will fuel political instability and may ultimately threaten Warsaw's plans to unlock frozen EU funds.

A Rough Power Transition Thrusts Poland Into a Political Crisis

Columns

On Geopolitics

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

South Africa

Argentina

Mexico

Palestinian Territories

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

Taiwan

Spain

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Luxembourg

Lithuania

Malta

Finland

Latvia

Czech Republic

Estonia

Bulgaria

Portugal

Romania

Croatia

Cyprus

Slovakia

Netherlands

Ireland

Hungary

Members of the European Parliament take part in voting on the Artificial Intelligence Act during a plenary session at the European Parliament.

Cyber

The EU's recently negotiated Artificial Intelligence Act will bolster the European Union's dominance as a regulatory heavyweight in emerging technologies, yet anticipated enforcement challenges and stringent stipulations with the Act risk impeding AI innovation within the bloc.

EU Lawmakers Clinch Agreement on Artificial Intelligence Act 

Posters for parliamentary candidates ahead of Poland's Oct. 10, 2023, election in Lodz, Poland.

A new centrist government would significantly improve relations with the European Union, allowing the country to continue playing an increasingly central role in the bloc.

Parliamentary Elections May Move Poland Closer to Brussels

Ecuador

New Zealand

Israeli army Merkava battle tanks deploy Oct. 13, 2023, with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel. An invasion will greatly exacerbate the hardships caused by Israel's total siege of the strip, creating a humanitarian crisis that could cause Egypt to use force to ensure that Palestinian refugees do not enter Sinai.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Ground Invasion, a Parliamentary Election in Poland

Denmark

Rail cars loaded with steel sit at the ThyssenKrupp Schwelgern steel plant on May 30, 2018 in Duisburg, Germany. 

The European Union and the United States will increase efforts to deconflict their trade and climate policies ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential and EU parliamentary elections, but lingering disagreements will not allow for a complete respite of Trump-era tariffs on EU steel and aluminum.

EU-U.S. Steel and Aluminum Negotiations Make Limited Headway

Solar panels on Aug. 9, 2023, in Neuss, Germany.

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Resistance to environmental initiatives in Europe will likely continue beyond the 2024 EU elections, portending less ambitious climate targets and greater protectionism.

Europe Faces a Less Ambitious Environmental Agenda

A woman sits by the entrance to the GUM department store in central Minsk on February 14, 2023.

Though Belarus is showing economic recovery in the short term, a number of structural issues will undermine its long-term growth prospects.

Belarus' Tentative Recovery Won’t Ensure Future Growth -– Or Kick-Start the Opposition

A political demonstration on June 20, 2023, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

The Weekly Rundown: Argentine Primary Elections, the Possible ECOWAS Intervention in Niger

A Polish soldier stands by anti-tank obstacles by the metal wall constructed at the Belarussian border in Bialowieza, Poland, on July 08, 2023. 

In Romania's case, Russian aggression is more likely to occur by accident. But in Poland, such aggression would have higher chance of escalation because it'd likely be by design.

Russia's Activities Near Romania and Poland Risk Sparking Another NATO Crisis

<p>Poland sits at the crossroads of Eastern and Western Europe. Located on the Northern European Plain, the country has a largely flat terrain with few geographic barriers &mdash; with the exception of the Baltic Sea to the north and the Carpathian Mountains in the extreme south. From the 15th to the 18th century, Poland was among the largest and most influential states in Europe. As the leading power of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Poland controlled territory that includes modern day Belarus, Ukraine, the Baltic states, and parts of western Russia. However, the emergence of Germanic powers to the west and Russia to the east proved disastrous for Poland, as the country was partitioned between the Russian, Prussian, and Austrian Empires at the end of the 18th century. Poland was then the setting of numerous wars for influence among European powers, proving a key battleground during World War I and II before being swept into the Soviet bloc during the Cold War. Poland returned to the Western fold once the Soviet Union collapsed, with the country joining NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004. Since then, Poland &mdash; with its demographic and industrial core in Warsaw &mdash; has been one of the most economically dynamic countries of the former Eastern bloc. The current crisis in Ukraine, as well as Poland&#39;s continued fear of Russia, has made Warsaw a pivotal player in the standoff between Moscow and the West. The country has sought to strengthen the presence of NATO on its territory and is a key part of the bloc&#39;s ballistic missile defense program. Poland has also sought to bring key countries in the former Soviet periphery, most notably Ukraine, closer to the West. Using these strategies to maintain territorial integrity is Poland&rsquo;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, France: Macron To Pitch Deployment to Ukraine as Part of Post-War Security Guarantee

Poland: Country Joins France in Open Opposition to EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Poland: Tusk Proposes Temporary Suspension of Asylum Rights

India: Prime Minister Modi To Visit Ukraine and Poland

Germany, Ukraine: Germany Issued Arrest Warrant for Ukrainian Citizen Over Nord Stream Sabotage

Russia, U.S.: Largest Prisoner Exchange Since Cold War Releases 24 People

Afghanistan: Taliban Disavows Some Afghan Diplomatic Missions in Europe and Other Western Countries

Poland: Rejection of Abortion Decriminalization Bill Highlights Ideological Differences Within Ruling Coalition

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