Israel

Lebanon

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Israeli forces advanced further into southern Lebanon's Wadi al-Hujeir area on Dec. 26, conducting sweeping operations and deploying heavy machine gun fire before retreating later to Wadi al-Slouki, according to a same-day report by Anadolu Agency.

Israel, Lebanon: IDF Forces Advance Further Into Southern Lebanon, Violating Ceasefire

Syria

Politics

In a surprise visit to Syria, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Dec. 17 that Israel would remain on Mount Hermon beyond the demilitarized zone that separates Israel's occupied Golan Heights from Syria proper for the immediate future, Reuters reported on Dec. 18.

Israel, Syria, Lebanon: Israel To Stay at Mount Hermon, IDF Ejects Israeli Settlers From Lebanon

An anti-Hezbollah newspaper in Lebanon, Nidaa al-Watan, said some of Syria's former al Assad government officials, including intelligence officers, fled to Lebanon thanks to support from Hezbollah, The Times of Israel reported on Dec. 13.

Lebanon, Syria: Former al Assad Government Officials Reportedly Flee to Lebanon

Iran

The Israel Defense Forces said it had withdrawn from Lebanon's town of Khiam along the Israel-Lebanon border near the Golan Heights as part of its November ceasefire with Lebanon's Hezbollah, The Times of Israel reported on Dec. 12.

Israel, Lebanon: IDF Withdraws From Town in Southern Lebanon as Ceasefire Broadly Holds

Syria's former rebel leader Mohammed al-Bashir was appointed provisional prime minister until March 1, 2025, marking the first formal appointment of the post-al Assad government after the regime fell to rebel forces on Dec. 8, The Times of Israel reported on Dec. 10.

Syria, Israel: Syria's New Leaders Appoint Caretaker Prime Minister Amid Israeli Airstrikes

Iraq

At least 300 Iranian-backed Iraqi militia fighters -- mostly from the Badr Organization and Nujabaa group -- crossed into Syria to back the Syrian government's forces and fight the rebels, in addition to a small number of fighters from Fatemiyoun, Reuters reported Dec. 2. 

Syria, Iraq, Lebanon: Iranian-Backed Militias Go to Syria to Back the Assad Regime

Hezbollah fired on the Israeli-held disputed border zone in the group's first attack since the start of the ceasefire in what the group called a "defensive and warning response," ABC News reported Dec. 2.

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Conducts First Attack Since Start of Ceasefire

Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah will agree to a 60-day truce that will lead to a permanent cease-fire, multiple media outlets reported on Nov. 25.

Israel, Lebanon: Both Sides Set To Approve Truce Leading to Cease-Fire

Assessments

Jordan

Walid Jumblatt, the Druze former leader of Lebanon's Progressive Socialist Party, and his son and current party head, Taymur Jumblatt, meet with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, interim prime minister Mohammad al-Bashir and other Druze leaders during a Dec. 22 visit to Damascus, Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's leadership in Syria will likely embolden Islamists in both Lebanon and Jordan, while Syria's turbulent political transition will likely prompt another wave of refugees into both neighboring countries.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's leadership in Syria will likely embolden Islamists in both Lebanon and Jordan, while Syria's turbulent political transition will likely prompt another wave of refugees into both neighboring countries.

Gauging the Regional Fallout of Syrian Regime Change

Snapshots

United States

Russia

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

A fireball erupts from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, on Nov. 25, 2024.

To consolidate its gains, Israel will keep conducting targeted strikes against Hezbollah under the guise of ceasefire enforcement, fueling more tit-for-tat exchanges that could ultimately reignite full-scale hostilities. 

Will the Hezbollah-Israel Truce Collapse?

Smoke billows above Beirut's southern suburbs following an Israeli airstrike on Nov. 26, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. 

Mutual war-weariness and U.S. pressure have driven Israel and Hezbollah to accept a 60-day truce, though periodic tit-for-tat strikes could undermine the cease-fire and hope for a permanent one.

What to Expect From Israel and Hezbollah's Truce

A picture taken on Sept. 30, 2024, shows a fire over an area of southern Lebanon following an Israeli bombardment. 

A long war of attrition would likely favor Hezbollah, though Israel could still emerge victorious if it sustains enough domestic and international support for its military campaign in Lebanon.

How Will the Israel-Hezbollah War Evolve?

Palestinian Territories

A general view shows a session at the Israeli parliament, the Knesset, in Jerusalem on March 20, 2023. 

To keep all of its coalition members happy, Israel's government will avoid specifying its conditions for a victory in Gaza and Lebanon, setting the stage for open-ended military campaigns that could embolden extremist Jewish settlers.

The Risks of Israel's Open-Ended Policies in Gaza and Lebanon

A plume of smoke billows following an Israeli air strike above a border town in southern Lebanon on Oct. 7, 2024. 

Economics

While the country may initially come together in the face of Israel's invasion, various Lebanese factions will probably become more critical of Hezbollah as the war wears on, raising the risk of violence between the group and its domestic rivals.

How Long Will Lebanon Rally Behind Hezbollah's Fight Against Israel?

Columns

On Geopolitics

Yemen

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

Ethiopia

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

Turkey

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

A topographic map of Iran.

The exposure of its proxy strategy's shortcomings over the past year will force Iran to adapt its national security strategy to compensate.

Iran Grapples With a Weakened Axis of Resistance

Authorities in Israel's southern city of Gedera assess a damaged school building after a projectile exploded upon impact on Oct. 1, 2024, after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel. 

Israel will most likely strike a small number of targets inside Iran, but there is a chance it will pursue more escalatory options that would likely invite further Iranian attacks.

Gauging Israel's Options for Responding to Iran's Ballistic Missile Attack

Israeli tanks gather by the Lebanese border on Sept. 30, 2024. 

Israel is trying to seize on the chaos its recent attacks have inflicted on Hezbollah, but no ground operation will firmly and quickly secure southern Lebanon, and could pull Israel into a prolonged and costly campaign.

Assessing Israel's Options for a Ground Invasion in Lebanon

Lebanon is a small country wedged against the Mediterranean Sea, with Syria to its east and Israel to its south. The country is divided by the western Lebanon Mountains and the eastern Anti-Lebanon Mountains, which also run through Syria. These mountains produce three geographic and climate ranges for the country: hot and dry in the east and mild and wetter in the west, with the fertile Bekaa Valley in the midlands providing much of the country's agriculture. The cluster of mountains itself is friendly to the growth of cedar trees, the country's national icon.    Because of its small size, Lebanon is forced to import much of the food it needs to feed its population. Thus it has long been a center of trade, with coastal cities like Beirut acting as gateways for east-wide trade routes. It's a necessity for Lebanon to keep access to these trade routes. However, because the country is so small, outside powers have found it very easy to exert influence, especially given Lebanon's internal demographic divisions. Foreign powers can often find allies in Lebanon, though they rarely can find enough friendly forces to control the entire country, leading to frequent split governments and regular civil strife.     Lebanon's greatest challenge, therefore, is to keep access to its trade routes while balancing its own divisions, which are manipulated by outside powers. It has not always succeeded, and the country's 1975-1990 civil war is only the latest major conflict that has arisen from these conditions. In the future, Lebanon will continue to struggle with precariously balancing its small size, its divided population and its ambitious neighbors. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Lebanon: IDF Forces Advance Further Into Southern Lebanon, Violating Ceasefire

Israel, Syria, Lebanon: Israel To Stay at Mount Hermon, IDF Ejects Israeli Settlers From Lebanon

Lebanon, Syria: Former al Assad Government Officials Reportedly Flee to Lebanon

Israel, Lebanon: IDF Withdraws From Town in Southern Lebanon as Ceasefire Broadly Holds

Syria, Israel: Syria's New Leaders Appoint Caretaker Prime Minister Amid Israeli Airstrikes

Syria, Iraq, Lebanon: Iranian-Backed Militias Go to Syria to Back the Assad Regime

Israel, Lebanon: Hezbollah Conducts First Attack Since Start of Ceasefire

Israel, Lebanon: Both Sides Set To Approve Truce Leading to Cease-Fire

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