Tunisia

Economics

Politics

Tunisian President Kais Saied replaced Finance Minister Sihem Boughdiri with Michkat Khaldi, a judge with little financial experience, Reuters reported on Feb. 5.

Tunisia: Saied Replaces Finance Minister Amid Shortages of Staple Goods

Tunisia's electoral authority announced incumbent Tunisian President Kais Saied's reelection for a second term after he secured 90.69% of the vote in the first round of the Oct. 6 presidential election with voter turnout of 28.8%, according to preliminary results, Reuters reported on Oct. 7.

Tunisia: Saied Wins Reelection in Landslide Victory

Military & Security

A Tunisian court sentenced presidential candidate and leader of the liberal Azimoun Party Ayachi Zammel to 20 months in prison after security forces arrested him two weeks ago on charges of falsifying voter signatures on his candidacy paperwork, Reuters reported on Sept. 18.

Tunisia: Opposition Presidential Candidate Sentenced to 20 Months in Prison

Tunisian President Kais Saied replaced 19 ministers and three state secretaries, including the ministers of defense, foreign affairs and the economy; however, the ministers of interior, justice and finance retained their posts, Reuters reported Aug. 25. 

Tunisia: Saied Reshuffles Cabinet, Replaces 19 Ministers

Tunisian President Kais Saied replaced Prime Minister Ahmed Hachani with social affairs minister Kamel Madouri according to a statement released by the office of the president on Aug. 7.

Tunisia: Saied Replaces Prime Minister Hachani With Social Affairs Minister Madouri

A Tunisian court ruled against four opposition presidential candidates and charged them with vote buying, resulting in eight-month prison sentences and bans on taking part in the Oct. 6 Tunisian presidential election, Reuters reported on Aug. 5.

Tunisia: Court Sentences Opposition Candidates to Prison, Bars Them From Election

Tunisian President Kais Saied signed a presidential pardon for over 1,700 individuals detained for their critical social media posts about the government, The National reported on July 26.

Tunisia: Saied Pardons Social Media Critics

Lotfi Mraihi, the leader of Tunisia's opposition Republican Union Party and a presidential hopeful, was arrested by Tunisian police on charges of money laundering, The New Arab reported June 4.

Tunisia: Prominent Opposition Leader Arrested

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Egyptians protest in front of the Rafah border crossing, rejecting the proposed displacement of Palestinians in Gaza to Egypt and Jordan, on Jan. 31, 2025. 

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Pro-Palestinian protests will persist regionwide amid allegations of Israeli ceasefire violations, but Morocco and Egypt will avoid taking action that could jeopardize their access to Israeli weapons and energy.

How Will North African Governments Respond to Ardent Pro-Palestinian Sentiment?

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

The Geopolitics of Water

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Science & Technology

North Africa will struggle to combat its worsening drought amid overconsumption, mismanagement and technological shortcomings.

The Geopolitics of Water: A Prolonged Drought Dries Up North Africa's Resources

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A man in Maputo walks past a wall covered with electoral posters in support of Daniel Chapo, the ruling party candidate in Mozambique’s presidential election, on Oct. 4, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Germany as Mozambique, Tunisia and Brazil Hold Elections

Tunisian President Kais Saied speaks to reporters Dec. 24, 2023, in Mnihla in Ariana province, Tunisia. In a second term, Saied would likely undermine the judiciary and push for constitutional reforms to expand his powers, but will not make meaningful economic reforms for fear of protests. 

Global Elections

Once in office, Kais Saied will likely undermine the judiciary and push for constitutional reforms to expand his powers, but will not make meaningful economic reforms for fear of protests. 

Tunisia's President Poised for Reelection, and to Expand His Power

Supporters of Tunisian President Kais Saied participate in a rally rejecting foreign interference in the country's internal affairs in Tunis, Tunisia, on May 19, 2024. 

After his expected reelection in late 2024, Saied will likely continue to consolidate power and crack down on dissent, but he'll remain constrained by Tunisia's powerful labor unions and fears of stoking unrest.

Tunisia's Authoritarian Slide Under President Saied Looks Set to Continue

Armenia

Azerbaijan

The U.S. and Mexican flags. On Dec. 27, a delegation of top U.S. officials including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas is expected to travel to Mexico to meet with President Lopez Obrador to discuss ways to address the recent surge of migrants on the southern U.S. border.

Social Issues

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Mexican Officials Talk Migration, Putin Meets With CIS Leaders

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Tunisian dinar.

Tunisia will push European states for more aid as migrants use the country as a launching point to the Continent.

Tunisia Angles for More European Aid as Migrants Travel North

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Oman

Students from the American University of Beirut (AUB) rally in support of Palestinians outside the main gate of the university in the Lebanese capital on Oct. 9, 2023. 

Israel's likely ground invasion in Gaza will alienate many Muslims in the Middle East, pressuring their governments to respond in support of Palestinians.

Gauging the Regional Response to the Gaza Conflict

People line up in front of a bakery selling subsidized bread in Tunis, Tunisia, on Aug. 19, 2023.

The ongoing shortages risk eroding President Saied's popularity, triggering unrest, and delaying the disbursement of needed IMF funds.

Tunisia's Response to Bread Shortages Bode Ill for Its Economic Stability

Low water levels are seen at the Sidi Salem Dam, Tunisia's largest embankment dam, on April 6, 2023. 

Water and food shortages this summer will increase socioeconomic risks in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia, along with the impetus for more sustainable agricultural practices. 

After a Dry Spring, Northwest Africa Braces for Disruptive Crop Failures

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Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni (2nd L) and Libya's Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah (3rd L) attend an agreement-signing ceremony between Italian multinational oil and gas company Eni and the Libyan National Oil Corporation in Tripoli, Libya, on Jan. 28, 2023.

As Europe turns away from Russian energy, Italy positions itself as a natural gas conduit between the Continent and Africa.

With Energy Deals in Africa, Italy Positions Itself as Europe's Next Gas Hub

Tunisia sits at the northwest corner of North Africa, and is divided geographically between its temperate, mountainous northern coastline, its warm, central plains, and its hot, dry Sahara Desert interior. To maintain its prosperity, Tunisia's primary geographic challenges are to manage the economic divide between its interior and coastline, while also defending the country's geographically open borders and trade routes with Europe. Though it lacks major natural resources, agriculture has flourished for centuries in Tunisia's mountainous north.    Tunisia's location on the Mediterranean is a double-edged sword. It provides it with access to trade routes while also opening it up to attacks from powerful states. Though the country's interior is much more defensible, the coastal region produces 85% of Tunisia's gross domestic product. Its capital and largest city, Tunis, sits on the Bay of Tunis where a natural harbor facilitates trade, but provides an easy landing point for invasion.     Beginning with the Roman conquest of Carthage in the second century B.C., Tunisia was under foreign occupation for much of its history. Its last occupation ended in 1956 when French colonization ceased, but trouble on Tunisia's southern border persists today.     To maintain prosperity, Tunisia needs access to European trade routes across the Mediterranean Sea. Doing so requires close relationships with powers strong enough to keep those routes open, and Tunisia has thus remained close with its powerful former colonizer, France. Because Tunisia is too weak to control or influence neighboring Algeria or Libya, it chooses to focus on maintaining its trade routes to Europe.

SITUATION REPORTS

Tunisia: Saied Replaces Finance Minister Amid Shortages of Staple Goods

Tunisia: Saied Wins Reelection in Landslide Victory

Tunisia: Opposition Presidential Candidate Sentenced to 20 Months in Prison

Tunisia: Saied Reshuffles Cabinet, Replaces 19 Ministers

Tunisia: Saied Replaces Prime Minister Hachani With Social Affairs Minister Madouri

Tunisia: Court Sentences Opposition Candidates to Prison, Bars Them From Election

Tunisia: Saied Pardons Social Media Critics

Tunisia: Prominent Opposition Leader Arrested

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