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Yemen's Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council, or PLC, expelled Aidarous al-Zubaidi, the leader of the separatist, Emirati-backed Southern Transitional Council, or STC, from the ruling coalition, referring him to the attorney general for treason charges, AP reported on Jan. 6. 

Yemen: PLC Declares STC Head a Traitor, Retakes STC Stronghold

Yemen's Saudi-backed National Shield Forces (NSF) regained control of the strategic Hadramawt province following days of armed clashes with the secessionist UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), Bloomberg reported on Jan. 5.

Yemen: Saudi-Backed Forces Retake Southern Hadramawt Province

The leader of Yemen's separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) announced the "beginning of a two-year transition phase" toward establishing an independent southern Yemeni state, and called for a referendum vote on self-determination, Al Jazeera reported Jan. 2.

Yemen: STC Announces 'Two-Year Transition Phase' in Push for an Independent Southern State

Economics

Saudi Arabia said its national security constitutes a "red line" it will defend, hours after the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen struck vehicles and cargo in Hadramawt province that it said were supplied by a foreign military to southern separatist forces, Reuters reported on Dec. 30.

Yemen: Saudi Arabia Strikes Yemeni Separatist Arms Shipment, Allegedly Supplied by UAE

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Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced in a joint declaration with Somaliland's President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi that Israel recognized Somaliland's sovereignty as an independent state, the first country in the world to recognize the breakaway region, The Jerusalem Post reported on Dec. 26.

Israel, Somalia: Israel Recognizes Somaliland's Sovereignty

Yemen's separatist Southern Transitional Council accused Saudi Arabia of conducting airstrikes in Yemen's eastern Hadramawt province against the group, though Saudi Arabia did not confirm its involvement, AP reported on Dec. 26.

Yemen: Southern Transitional Council Accuses Saudi Arabia of Conducting Airstrikes

The UAE-backed separatist Southern Transitional Council, or STC, led a rapid offensive against forces of the Saudi-backed internationally recognized government, capturing most of oil-rich Hadhramaut province, The National UAE reported on Dec. 4.

Yemen: UAE-Backed Forces Capture Most of Hadhramaut Province

A Houthi drone launched from Yemen struck Israel's Ramon Airport near the resort city of Eilat, the Israeli military said, causing minor damage to a terminal and shutting the airport temporarily, CBS News reported on Sept. 7.

Yemen, Israel: Houthis Hit Ramon Airport in Rare Successful Strike

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Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026. 

Social Issues

The Gulf nations' growing battle for influence is straining bilateral ties and fueling proxy conflicts in places like Yemen and Sudan, though both sides will likely avoid any escalation that could harm their economies.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World

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A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

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As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Snapshots

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Residents wave Somaliland flags as they gather to celebrate Israel's announcement recognizing Somaliland's statehood in downtown Hargeisa, on Dec. 26, 2025. 

Israel establishing military facilities in Somaliland would invite Houthi attacks against the territory and raise the likelihood of renewed disruptions to Red Sea shipping.


Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Raises the Stakes Along the Red Sea Corridor 

Columns

On Geopolitics

Yemenis gather during a rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC), which wants to revive an independent South Yemen, as they wave the old South Yemen flag in Khormaksar Square, in the coastal port city of Aden on Dec. 14, 2025. 

Achieving South Arabian independence will require Yemen's Southern Transitional Council to overcome the historical challenges that have long plagued the governance of Yemen writ large, like tribalism and regionalism.

The Precarious Path to South Arabian Independence

YemenYemenis rally to show their support for the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council on Dec. 14, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Escalating tensions and potential violence between the Southern Transitional Council and Saudi-backed forces create security vacuums that Houthi rebels will likely exploit.



Yemen's Anti-Houthi Bloc Is Fracturing

Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.

If effective, the laser air defense system will significantly reduce the cost of intercepting short-range aerial threats and bolster Israel's multilayered protection against aerial attacks.


The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture

Yemenis stand under a billboard depicting the seizure of an Israeli-linked ship in the sea by Yemen's Houthi-run coast guards during a demonstration staged in solidarity with the people of Gaza and against U.S. President Donald Trump's deal to end the Israel-Hamas war on Oct. 3, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

While the partnership provides tactical benefits, structural limitations on Houthi resources and al Shabaab's financial independence suggest the relationship will remain opportunistic.

The Outlook for Cooperation Between Yemen's Houthis and Somalia's al Shabaab

Yemen's Houthi fighters man machine guns mounted on trucks as they participate in a weaponized protest staged against the United States and Israel on Nov. 6, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

Global Trade

Israel is expected to soon launch another offensive against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis, which will risk reigniting the civil war and exposing Gulf countries and Red Sea shipping to retaliatory attacks.

What a Renewed Israel-Houthi Conflict Would Mean for Yemen and Gulf Security

An Israeli military truck carries a tank in southern Israel on the border with the Gaza Strip, on Oct. 14, 2025.

The ceasefire will allow Israel to redirect resources away from Gaza toward other regional threats, particularly Iran, while temporarily easing diplomatic tensions with Egypt and the UAE.

The Regional Implications of the Oct. 8 Gaza Ceasefire

Iraq

A picture taken from a distance shows the damaged building (L) in the Qatari compound housing members of Hamas' political bureau on Sept. 10, 2025. Israel targeted the building the previous day in a strike in Qatar's capital, Doha. 

Israel's Sept. 9 airstrikes in Qatar will likely harden the stances of Iranian-backed groups, keep normalization with Saudi Arabia off the table and drive more assertive postures from other regional states.

The Regional Implications of Israel's Strikes in Qatar

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Yemen is located on the southwest corner of the Arabian Peninsula, across from the Horn of Africa. With Saudi Arabia to the north and Oman to the east, Yemen’s land borders are largely isolated by the Empty Quarter, a vast, uninhabited desert that stretches through the region. Across the Red Sea, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia are linked to Yemen by trade, religion and culture. From its vantage point on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Yemen overlooks one of the world’s biggest trade routes.     Yemen has three geographic regions: the northern and western highlands, anchored by the capital Sanaa; the southern coastal harbors around Aden; and the eastern desert of the Hadramawt. For most of its history, the country’s civilization centered on the highlands, where enough rain falls to sustain agriculture. Because they lack oil and mineral resources, Yemen’s highlands are dependent on these farmlands.     Meanwhile coastal harbor cities like Aden survived off trade and piracy, while the desert interior developed a Bedouin trading and raiding culture that siphoned wealth from the two nearby regions. Dwindling water supplies threaten this balance, however, as skyrocketing populations and shifting agricultural practices strain the demographic sustainability of the highlands.     Nearly 20 million of Yemen’s 26.8 million people live in or near the highlands, which envelop and isolate Sanaa. So for outside powers, ports along the Red Sea trade routes of the south tend to make for better targets than the Yemeni capital. Throughout history, states from Rome to Great Britain have tried to capture Aden and its environs. The vulnerability of the city and its southern surroundings to foreign influence and meddling has repeatedly opened rifts between Yemen’s north and south. During these times of tension, the Hadramawt east often slips from the grasp of the central government.     Yemen’s geographic challenges, then, are threefold. First, the country must ward off foreign encroachment on its exposed southern flank. Second, it must find a way to manage its increasingly scarce resources. And third, Sanaa must keep the Hadramawt &mdash; known for its ability to threaten national unity &mdash; under tight control. 

The Yemen Civil War

SITUATION REPORTS

Yemen: PLC Declares STC Head a Traitor, Retakes STC Stronghold

Yemen: Saudi-Backed Forces Retake Southern Hadramawt Province

Yemen: STC Announces 'Two-Year Transition Phase' in Push for an Independent Southern State

Yemen: Saudi Arabia Strikes Yemeni Separatist Arms Shipment, Allegedly Supplied by UAE

Israel, Somalia: Israel Recognizes Somaliland's Sovereignty

Yemen: Southern Transitional Council Accuses Saudi Arabia of Conducting Airstrikes

Yemen: UAE-Backed Forces Capture Most of Hadhramaut Province

Yemen, Israel: Houthis Hit Ramon Airport in Rare Successful Strike

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