Mali

Military & Security

Negotiations are reportedly underway between Mali's Tuareg rebels, under the umbrella group Azawad Liberation Front, or FLA, and the al Qaeda-affiliated Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, Radio France Internationale reported on March 4.

Mali: Tuareg Rebels and al Qaeda-Affiliated Jihadists Discuss Collaboration in Northern Region

Guinea Bissau

Russia

Politics

Mediators from the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, said they left Guinea Bissau after President Umaro Sissoco Embalo threatened to expel them, Radio France Internationale reported on March 3.

Guinea Bissau: ECOWAS Mediators Leave Country Following President's Threats Over Election Dispute

Canada

Turkey

Economics

Canadian mining company Barrick Gold signed a new agreement to resolve a nearly two-year dispute over its mining operations in Mali, although the junta has yet to approve the deal formally, Reuters reported on Feb. 19. 

Mali: Barrick Gold Claims Agreement With Malian Junta To End Mining Dispute

The Malian junta announced plans to accelerate the disarmament, demobilization and reintegration of former combatants from armed groups mainly from the north and center of the country, Radio France Internationale reported on Feb. 12. 

Mali: Junta To Integrate Fighters From Allied Groups Into Mali's Army

Burkina Faso

Niger

The Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, announced that Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso had formally exited the regional bloc, Reuters reported on Jan. 29.

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Formally Exit ECOWAS

Togo

Togolese Foreign Affairs Minister Robert Dussey refused to rule out Togo joining the Alliance of Sahel States, which Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso formed in light of their upcoming departure from the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, Jeune Afrique reported on Jan. 16.

West Africa: Togo Considers Joining the Alliance of Sahel States

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Canadian mining company Barrick Gold said it will suspend operations at its Loulo-Gounkoto mining complex after Malian authorities began seizing the mine's gold output, Reuters reported Jan. 13.

Mali: Barrick To Suspend Operations At Loulo-Gounkoto Mine Following Gold Seizures

Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso rejected proposals by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) for a six-month grace period following their formal departure from the regional bloc slated for Jan. 29 and stressed that their exit would take effect immediately, Bloomberg reported Dec. 22.

West Africa: Sahelian Juntas Reject ECOWAS's Grace Period

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Libya

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

Mauritania

Nigeria

The Geopolitics of Water

Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

A staff member walks past a stage before a press conference at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, on Feb. 27, 2023. 

The exit will worsen all three countries' economic outlook, especially if they decide to also leave the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which would likely fuel jihadist activity in the Sahel.

What Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso's Exit From ECOWAS Means for West Africa

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Media

Graphics

A general view of a military crest of the French army in Niamey, Niger, on July 15, 2022.

French and U.N. troop withdrawals from the Sahel will open the door to jihadist attacks and external actors.

The Sahel's Security Environment Amid French and U.N. Troop Withdrawals

Snapshots

Gabon

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Cyber

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Republic of the Congo

People holding Gabon national flags celebrate in Libreville on August 30, 2023, after a group of military officers announced they were ''putting an end'' to President Ali Bongo Ondimba's regime. 

Rampant insecurity could precipitate the collapse of more Sahelian governments, while succession crises and patronage politics could do the same for Central Africa's dynastic leaders.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 1: The Sahel and Central Africa

Benin

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

Senegal

United States

Protesters hold placards denouncing ECOWAS on Aug. 3, 2023, in Niamey, Niger. While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention Take Shape in Niger?

Belarus

Smoke billows north of the Khartoum Bahri district on July 17, 2023, as fighting continues in war-torn Sudan.

The Wagner Group's failed mutiny in Russia could facilitate its expansion in Africa, potentially including increased support of military rule in the Sahel and heightened involvement in Sudan and Libya's civil wars. 

The Wagner Group's 'New Path' in Africa

Australia

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attends the 28th term deputies' oath-taking ceremony at the Turkish Grand National Assembly on June 2, 2023, in Ankara. Speculation is rife that former Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek will be appointed head of the Turkish Treasury in a move likely to delight international investors.

U.S.-China Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Possible Economic Shift in Turkey, the Shangri-La Dialogue

Fighters aligned with the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) patrol a street in Kidal, northern Mali, on Aug. 28, 2022. 

The al-Qaeda-linked JNIM's non-aggression pact with other armed groups highlights its political power as Bamako scrambles to preserve what little control over the country it has left.

In Mali, Jihadists and Separatists Forge a Pact to Counter the Islamic State

<p>Mali&#39;s borders were created in 1960 from the division of colonial French West Africa. The country encompasses two geographically distinct regions. These two regions &mdash;&nbsp;defined by the fertile, densely populated southern savannas and the arid, sparse northern Sahara &mdash;&nbsp;are largely separated by the Niger River, which also serves as the historic lifeline of Malian commerce. These regions have independent geopolitical cores. The southern core is the Bambara agricultural triangle that includes Bamako &mdash;&nbsp;the nation&#39;s capital. It&#39;s home to the Bambara people who share ethnic ties with Mali&#39;s southern neighbors: Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Guinea and Senegal. The northern core is found at the southern end of the Hoggar Mountains and is home to the nomadic Tuareg &mdash; a Berber people with ties to populations in Niger, Mauritania and Algeria. Projecting political authority over both distinct regions is Mali&#39;s primary geographic challenge. The two largest cities in the north &mdash;&nbsp;Timbuktu and Gao &mdash; are on the Niger River and once served as major trading outposts between the two cores. Over the centuries, the establishment of sea routes by Europeans lessened the role of the Tuareg and these cities. Subsequently, the Tuareg Islamic sphere of influence has diminished, and the Saharan trade routes that once transferred salt, gold, ivory and slaves deteriorated. Today, Mali is one of the world&#39;s poorest countries. Its economy is based on agriculture, particularly cotton, livestock and gold mining. As the country&#39;s 2012 coup demonstrates, Bamako faces considerable challenges projecting domestic power from the extreme southwest of the country into the vast stretches of Mali&#39;s Saharan desert.</p>

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Mali: Tuareg Rebels and al Qaeda-Affiliated Jihadists Discuss Collaboration in Northern Region

Guinea Bissau: ECOWAS Mediators Leave Country Following President's Threats Over Election Dispute

Mali: Barrick Gold Claims Agreement With Malian Junta To End Mining Dispute

Mali: Junta To Integrate Fighters From Allied Groups Into Mali's Army

West Africa: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso Formally Exit ECOWAS

West Africa: Togo Considers Joining the Alliance of Sahel States

Mali: Barrick To Suspend Operations At Loulo-Gounkoto Mine Following Gold Seizures

West Africa: Sahelian Juntas Reject ECOWAS's Grace Period

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