Benin

Cameroon

Chad

Niger

Nigeria

Military & Security

Politics

Chad's interim President Mahamat Idriss Deby threatened to withdraw from the Multinational Joint Task Force, or MNJTF, due to what he described as a failure to combat insurgent groups in the Lake Chad region effectively, Reuters reported on Nov. 4.

Chad: President Threatens To Withdraw From Multinational Security Force

France

Russia

Economics

France's state-owned uranium miner Orano announced that it was halting operations at its Somair uranium mine in Niger due to its local subsidiary's financial difficulties, Radio France Internationale reported on Oct. 24.

Niger: France's Orano To Suspend Operations at Somair Mine

Burkina Faso

Cote d'Ivoire

Mali

Togo

Amadou Koufa, the leader of the Katiba Macina group within al Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), said that the group intends to expand its attacks and territorial control beyond its current focus on Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger towards the littoral states along the Gulf of Guinea, according to email correspondence with a France24 journalist published Oct. 23.

Sahel: Top JNIM Leader Pledges to Expand into Littoral West African States

Algeria

An attack targeting Nigerien security forces in the northern town of Assamaka resulted in seven fatalities and five injuries, Afrique sur 7 reported on Oct. 20.

Niger: Attack on Town Near Algerian Border Kills Seven

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Floods across Western and Central Africa caused by unusually high rainfall have displaced at least 4 million people since late August, including at least 2.9 million people in Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Mali, Bloomberg reported on Sept. 17.

Nigeria, Sahel: Large-Scale Floods Threaten Harvest as Rains Persists

Niger has agreed to resume active participation in the regional Multinational Joint Task Force (MNTJF) against Boko Haram as part of a new security agreement with Nigeria, Reuters reported Aug. 29. 

Africa: Niger to Rejoin Regional Force Against Boko Haram in New Security Deal With Nigeria

Energy

Niger resumed crude oil exports to Benin through the newly constructed, Chinese-funded 2,000 kilometer (1,243 mile) pipeline to the West African coast, following a months-long dispute that had paused operations, Reuters reported on Aug. 21.

Niger, Benin: Niger Resumes Oil Exports via Benin After Suspension 

United States

The U.S. military completed its withdrawal from Airbase 201 in Niger, following an order by Niger's ruling junta for nearly 1,000 U.S. military personnel to leave after the 2023 coup, Reuters reported on Aug. 5.

Niger, U.S.: Washington Completes Withdrawal From Key Drone Base

Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Central African Republic

Kenya

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Libya

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Burkina Faso's junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore during a welcoming ceremony at the second Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on July 27, 2023.

Competition against the West will fuel Russia's outreach to Africa, but jihadist expansion in the Sahel will eventually force Moscow into tough policy decisions.

What the Future Holds for Russia in Africa

Mauritania

The Geopolitics of Water

Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

Media

Podcasts

What are Niger's security options going forward?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Niger's Security Landscape

Iran

Mohamed Toumba (R), one of the generals who ousted Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum in July 2023, and military junta spokesperson Amadou Abdramane (L) look on in Niamey, Niger, on Sept. 4, 2023. 

As U.S. troops likely prepare to leave Niger, alternative partners ready themselves to fill the void.

What's Next for Niger After the Termination of Defense Cooperation With the U.S.?

A staff member walks past a stage before a press conference at the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria, on Feb. 27, 2023. 

The exit will worsen all three countries' economic outlook, especially if they decide to also leave the West African Economic and Monetary Union, which would likely fuel jihadist activity in the Sahel.

What Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso's Exit From ECOWAS Means for West Africa

Columns

On Geopolitics

South Africa

Argentina

Mexico

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

United Kingdom

Poland

Spain

Italy

Armenia

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Graphics

A general view of a military crest of the French army in Niamey, Niger, on July 15, 2022.

French and U.N. troop withdrawals from the Sahel will open the door to jihadist attacks and external actors.

The Sahel's Security Environment Amid French and U.N. Troop Withdrawals

Snapshots

Gabon

Protesters in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, wave Russian and Burkinabe flags on Oct. 4, 2022. 

Cyber

Many of the drivers that led to the recent coups in the Sahel are present in other African countries, granting Russian-sponsored influence operations more inroads.

Africa's Instability Creates Fertile Ground for Russian Disinformation

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Republic of the Congo

People holding Gabon national flags celebrate in Libreville on August 30, 2023, after a group of military officers announced they were ''putting an end'' to President Ali Bongo Ondimba's regime. 

Rampant insecurity could precipitate the collapse of more Sahelian governments, while succession crises and patronage politics could do the same for Central Africa's dynastic leaders.

Assessing the Risk of Future African Coups, Part 1: The Sahel and Central Africa

French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

A political demonstration on June 20, 2023, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

U.S.-China Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Argentine Primary Elections, the Possible ECOWAS Intervention in Niger

Senegal

Protesters hold placards denouncing ECOWAS on Aug. 3, 2023, in Niamey, Niger. While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention Take Shape in Niger?

Niger is a landlocked Sahelian state in West Africa that is surrounded by Algeria and Libya to the north, Chad to the east, Nigeria and Benin to the South and Burkina Faso and Mali to the west.     Niger's greatest geographic challenge is its landlocked status in the Sahel, the transition zone between the Sahara Desert and the savannahs of West Africa. Niger's lack of immediate coastal access and the global markets beyond increases the cost of imports and exports there. Moreover, it forces the country to rely on costly or lacking infrastructure and to manage relations with neighboring countries carefully to ensure its trade opportunities are not cut off.    The Sahel region has often been home to significant instability. Mali, Niger's neighbor to the west, remains the epicenter of regional militancy thanks to its weak government, internal tensions and a host of other issues. Niger, for its part, has also experienced cycles of rebellion but has largely maintained a somewhat stable, if weak and porous, security environment in recent years.     Niger's geographic position in the impoverished and unstable Sahel has done it no favors regarding infrastructure or economic development. In the years ahead, rapid population growth and strained resources will become even more pressing, causing Niger to struggle as it grapples with these problems for the foreseeable future. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Chad: President Threatens To Withdraw From Multinational Security Force

Niger: France's Orano To Suspend Operations at Somair Mine

Sahel: Top JNIM Leader Pledges to Expand into Littoral West African States

Niger: Attack on Town Near Algerian Border Kills Seven

Nigeria, Sahel: Large-Scale Floods Threaten Harvest as Rains Persists

Africa: Niger to Rejoin Regional Force Against Boko Haram in New Security Deal With Nigeria

Niger, Benin: Niger Resumes Oil Exports via Benin After Suspension

Niger, U.S.: Washington Completes Withdrawal From Key Drone Base

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