Nigeria

Politics

 Nigeria's former presidential candidates Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, who respectively led the Peoples Democratic Party's and Labour Party's presidential tickets in the 2023 general election, announced the formation of an opposition coalition with former Kaduna state Gov. Nasir Ahmad el-Rufai to beat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general election, The Punch reported on March 21.

Nigeria: Opposition Parties Announce Coalition as National Assembly Approves State of Emergency in Rivers 

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Military & Security

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in the country's southern Rivers state and suspended Rivers Gov. Siminalayi Fubara and all lawmakers of the Rivers House of Assembly for an initial period of six months, The Punch reported on March 18.

Nigeria: President Tinubu Declares State of Emergency in Rivers, Suspends Fubara

An explosion occurred on the Trans Niger Pipeline near the locality of Bodo in Nigeria's southern Rivers state, Daily Post Nigeria reported on March 18.

Nigeria: Explosion Rocks Trans Niger Pipeline in Rivers State 

The House of Assembly of Nigeria's Rivers state backed by Federal Capital Territory minister Nyesom Wike filed a notice of impeachment against Rivers Gov. Siminalayi Fubara, Daily Post Nigeria reported on March 17.

Nigeria: Rivers' Assembly Launches Impeachment Proceeding Against Governor as Violence Erupts 

The Niger Delta Rescue Movement, or NDRM, threatened to attack oil production facilities in the southeastern Rivers state if Nigeria's federal government complied with a Feb. 28 Supreme Court ruling freezing all federal funding to the state until a new budget is presented to the regional parliament, Vanguard News reported on March 6.

Nigeria: Militants Threaten Attacks on Oil Infrastructure Amid Political Crisis in Rivers State

Nigeria's bicameral National Assembly approved the country's 2025 budget totaling 54.99 trillion naira ($36.6 billion), Reuters reported on Feb. 13.

Nigeria: Parliament Approves Revised 2025 Budget

The Federal High Court in Abuja officially declared the Lakurawa insurgent sect and similar groups in Nigeria, particularly in the North West and North Central regions, as terrorist organizations, Punch news reported on Jan. 23.

Nigeria: Federal Court Declares Lakurawa a Terrorist Organization

Nigeria's crude oil production reached 1.507 million barrels per day (bpd) in December 2024, Vanguard News reported on Jan. 16, citing OPEC's January 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report. 

Nigeria: OPEC Report Finds Oil Output Reaching Production Quota

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

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Environmental conditions in the Sahel are likely to worsen due to desertification, rapid population growth and political instability. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Role of Desertification in Conflict in the Sahel

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A motorcyclist looks at his phone in front of a National Electoral Council poster promoting the upcoming presidential election in Caracas, Venezuela, on July 23, 2024.

Global Elections

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Election in Venezuela, Economic Reforms in the U.K.

Nigerian naira banknotes on Jan. 28, 2016, in Lagos, Nigeria.

Despite the government's commitment to fiscal prudence and macroeconomic and currency reforms, economic conditions in Nigeria will remain challenging in 2024 and 2025 amid modest economic growth and high inflation, keeping the risk of socioeconomic unrest and policy slippage elevated.

Despite Reforms and Prudence, Nigeria's Economy Will Still Challenge the Government

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India Prime Minister Narendra Modi (R) meets with French President Emmanuel Macron on Dec. 1, 2023, in Dubai.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Blinken Visits Africa, Macron Visits India

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French soldiers of the Barkhane force patrol the streets of Timbuktu, Mali, on Dec. 5, 2021.

In the wake of Niger's coup, France will be compelled to revamp its security strategy in the Sahel and West Africa at large.

What the Niger Crisis Means for France's Counterterrorism Strategy in Africa

Senegal

Protesters hold placards denouncing ECOWAS on Aug. 3, 2023, in Niamey, Niger. While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

While an intervention probably would topple the Nigerien junta, it could cause a regional conflict, boost jihadists and lead to a weak Nigerian civilian regime.

How Might an ECOWAS Military Intervention Take Shape in Niger?

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The Nigerian state is unprepared to handle the impending population boom, which will likely spur massive overpopulation and underdevelopment in urban centers and inflame regional divides.

Africa's Population Boom: Nigeria

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose during their Feb. 4, 2022, meeting in Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping will arrive March 20, 2023, in Moscow for a three-day trip to Russia to meet with President Vladimir Putin and other high-ranking Russian officials. 

The Weekly Rundown: Nigeria Elects Governors, Xi Visits Russia

Snapshots

Nigerian President-elect Bola Tinubu (right) and the chairman of the country's Independent National Election Commission (INEC), Yakubu Mahmood, look on during a ceremony in Abuja on March 1, 2023. 

Tinubu will likely face a legal challenge to his victory that will prolong the already elevated risk of electoral unrest, though he'll almost certainly still take office in May.

Nigeria Braces for More Turmoil After the Ruling Party Wins the Presidency

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Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a speech at the Kremlin in Moscow on Sept. 30, 2022. 

The Weekly Rundown: Putin Gives a Speech, Biden Visits Poland as Ukraine War Hits One Year

Supporters hold flags to support opposition PDP candidate Atiku Abubakar during a campaign rally in Kano state in northwestern Nigeria on Feb. 9, 2023.

A potential break from Nigeria's informal power-sharing system and the rising popularity of a dark horse candidate are set to make the country's upcoming election divisive and violent.

A Presidential Election in Nigeria Will Likely Entrench the Status Quo

The West African country of Nigeria is bordered by Benin, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria gained its independence from Great Britain in 1960.    A series of mountains form the country's eastern border. Two rivers, the Niger and the Benue, effectively form a boundary between northern, southwestern and southeastern Nigeria. The northern half of the country is largely savannah grassland supportive of pastoral agriculture. Highlands in the south produce cash crops like oil palms and rubber.    Most of Nigeria's regions have arable lands that allow the country to support Africa's largest population of 150 million people. Each region has a dominant ethnic group. The Hausa-Fulani are based in the north, the Yoruba in the southwest and the Igbo in the southeast. These and more than 250 other ethnicities all vie for control over the Niger Delta region because of its abundant reserves of oil and natural gas. The Niger Delta region itself is home to the Ijaw people who have exerted disproportionate influence over the country's politics as seen with the election of Goodluck Jonathan as president in 2011. Nigeria's capital, Abuja, was intentionally located in the country's center to promote its neutrality.     Managing the competition for natural resources between these ethnically divided regions is Nigeria's primary geographic challenge.    Looking ahead, Nigeria will have to settle its internal ethnic division and astutely manage its oil revenue to deal with its projected population of 390 million people by 2050.

Nigeria: Obstacles to Prosperity

A Crude Recovery

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Nigeria: Opposition Parties Announce Coalition as National Assembly Approves State of Emergency in Rivers

Nigeria: President Tinubu Declares State of Emergency in Rivers, Suspends Fubara

Nigeria: Explosion Rocks Trans Niger Pipeline in Rivers State

Nigeria: Rivers' Assembly Launches Impeachment Proceeding Against Governor as Violence Erupts

Nigeria: Militants Threaten Attacks on Oil Infrastructure Amid Political Crisis in Rivers State

Nigeria: Parliament Approves Revised 2025 Budget

Nigeria: Federal Court Declares Lakurawa a Terrorist Organization

Nigeria: OPEC Report Finds Oil Output Reaching Production Quota

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