Nigeria

Military & Security

Politics

The Abuja Federal High Court directed Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission to deregister five opposition parties, including presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar's African Democratic Congress, or ADC, and prevent them from partaking in Nigeria's 2027 general election for failing to meet electoral performance thresholds set out in the Nigerian Constitution, the Daily Trust reported on June 15.

Nigeria: Federal High Court Orders Electoral Commission To Deregister Leading Opposition Party

Energy

Leaders for the Ijaw, Urhobo and Itsekiri communities of Nigeria's southern Delta state agreed on June 12 to rotate the House of Representatives seat for the Warri II federal constituency between the Ijaw and Itsekiri communities and raise the number of wards for Itsekiris in the Warri South West local government area from four to nine, THISDAY and The Guardian Nigeria reported on June 14.

Nigeria: Tensions Linger in Delta State Despite Federal Government-Brokered Deal 

Nigeria's House of Representatives passed a constitutional amendment bill (HB 617) to establish state police amid persistent insecurity, Premium Times reported on June 11.

Nigeria: Government Moves Toward State Police as Constitutional Amendment Clears House

Former Niger Delta militant leader Government "Tompolo" Ekpemupolo called for calm in Nigeria's southern Delta state amid fresh demonstrations by ethnic Ijaw and Urhobo protestors, who are occupying oil flow stations and threatening the production of 400,000 barrels of oil per day to protest the Independent National Electoral Commission's failure to implement a new ward delineation in the Warri area, Premium Times reported on June 10.

Nigeria: Tompolo Calls for Calm in Delta State as Protestors Occupy Oil Production Facilities

Mali

Niger

Algeria

Morocco

Economics

Algeria's, Niger's and Nigeria's ministers of petroleum oversaw the start of construction works for the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, or TSGP, in Algeria's Adrar region, Jeune Afrique reported on June 5.

Africa: Algeria Kicks Off Construction of Trans-Sahara Gas Pipeline

The opposition Nigeria Democratic Congress, or NDC, endorsed 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi as its presidential candidate for Nigeria's 2027 general election, and Obi named 2023 presidential candidate Rabiu Kwankwaso as his running mate, Vanguard reported on May 30.

Nigeria: NDC Designates Peter Obi as Presidential Candidate, Portending Mounting Campaigning Activity

United States

U.S. forces reportedly killed around 20 Islamic State West Africa Province fighters on May 17 in airstrikes near Metele in Nigeria's northeastern Borno state, following high-level operations on May 15 that killed ISWAP's deputy leader, Abu Bakr al-Mainuki, along with around three dozen fighters, The Wall Street Journal reported on May 18.

Nigeria, U.S.: Joint Operations Kill Islamic State's Second in Command, ISWAP Fighters

Turkey

Nigeria and Turkey concluded a military cooperation agreement to strengthen defense ties through training, joint production and broader defense industry collaboration, Jeune Afrique reported on April 19.

Nigeria: Abuja Signs Defense Deal With Turkey Amid Escalating Jihadist Insurgency

Assessments

Sub-Saharan Africa

Burkina Faso

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Chad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Mozambique

Rwanda

Sudan

The Geopolitics of Natural Resources

Control over critical natural resources is increasingly strengthening armed groups' durability and geographic reach, heightening their physical threats and their ability to create political instability.

Natural Resource Exploitation as an Engine for Insurgency in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Dangote petroleum refinery plant is seen in Lagos, Nigeria, on April 6, 2026.

Nigeria will enjoy a short-term revenue boost from elevated oil prices, but the potential for renewed instability in the Niger Delta could undermine efforts to increase oil production.

Nigeria's Oil Gains From Iran War Face Old Challenges

Benin

Togo

Structures destroyed in U.S. strikes on jihadist targets in Offa, Nigeria, are seen on Dec. 27, 2025.

New U.S. military action would most likely target jihadist groups, especially in West Africa, but limited strikes in Sudan or the Democratic Republic of the Congo to force belligerents there to de-escalate also cannot be ruled out.

The Outlook for New U.S. Strikes in Africa

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Greenland

Iran

Israel

China

Taiwan

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

India

Pakistan

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Madagascar

Canada

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Yemen

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

France

A photo taken on Dec. 8, 2025, shows an armored vehicle at the entrance of a blocked road in Cotonou, Benin, near the headquarters of the state broadcaster Benin TV.

The coup attempt will increase political and security risks ahead of Benin's 2026 elections, while the swift, Nigeria-led ECOWAS intervention suggests Abuja is assuming a more assertive regional role with tacit French backing following Paris's troop drawdown.

Benin's Foiled Coup Signals Strengthening Franco-Nigerian Coordination in West Africa

A Nigerian soldier stands guard at a checkpoint at the entrance to Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 4, 2025. 

Trump wants Nigeria to take action against the armed groups targeting Christians in the country, but Abuja will face challenges in sustaining such operations, which could lead to unilateral U.S. military action if there are fresh instances of intercommunal violence.

Will the United States Take Military Action in Nigeria?

Columns

On Security

Kenya

South Africa

Chile

Ecuador

Peru

Jordan

Tunisia

Serbia

Bangladesh

Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

Nigerian soldiers from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) drive in pick-ups during training at the Sector 3 MNJTF military base headquarters in Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 5, 2025. 

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

Armed groups will continue to expand across Nigeria as the government struggles with domestic constraints and limits on regional security cooperation.

In Nigeria, Security Forces Struggle To Address Growing Militancy

A worker inspects an oil drilling platform located roughly 35 kilometers away from Port Harcourt in the Niger Delta. 

The recent drop in global oil prices risks exacerbating Nigeria's already high inflation, which would ripen socioeconomic conditions for protests and threaten to fuel recruitment by jihadist and bandit groups.

Can Nigeria Navigate Lower Oil Prices? 

On Geopolitics

Comoros

Cote d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Gabon

Guinea

Mauritania

Republic of the Congo

Senegal

A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025. 

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment 

Angola

Ghana

Argentina

Brazil

Iraq

Kuwait

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Belarus

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

The West African country of Nigeria is bordered by Benin, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria gained its independence from Great Britain in 1960.    A series of mountains form the country's eastern border. Two rivers, the Niger and the Benue, effectively form a boundary between northern, southwestern and southeastern Nigeria. The northern half of the country is largely savannah grassland supportive of pastoral agriculture. Highlands in the south produce cash crops like oil palms and rubber.    Most of Nigeria's regions have arable lands that allow the country to support Africa's largest population of 150 million people. Each region has a dominant ethnic group. The Hausa-Fulani are based in the north, the Yoruba in the southwest and the Igbo in the southeast. These and more than 250 other ethnicities all vie for control over the Niger Delta region because of its abundant reserves of oil and natural gas. The Niger Delta region itself is home to the Ijaw people who have exerted disproportionate influence over the country's politics as seen with the election of Goodluck Jonathan as president in 2011. Nigeria's capital, Abuja, was intentionally located in the country's center to promote its neutrality.     Managing the competition for natural resources between these ethnically divided regions is Nigeria's primary geographic challenge.    Looking ahead, Nigeria will have to settle its internal ethnic division and astutely manage its oil revenue to deal with its projected population of 390 million people by 2050.

Nigeria: Obstacles to Prosperity

A Crude Recovery

The Jihadist Wars

The Suitors of Sub-Saharan Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Nigeria: Federal High Court Orders Electoral Commission To Deregister Leading Opposition Party

Nigeria: Tensions Linger in Delta State Despite Federal Government-Brokered Deal

Nigeria: Government Moves Toward State Police as Constitutional Amendment Clears House

Nigeria: Tompolo Calls for Calm in Delta State as Protestors Occupy Oil Production Facilities

Africa: Algeria Kicks Off Construction of Trans-Sahara Gas Pipeline

Nigeria: NDC Designates Peter Obi as Presidential Candidate, Portending Mounting Campaigning Activity

Nigeria, U.S.: Joint Operations Kill Islamic State's Second in Command, ISWAP Fighters

Nigeria: Abuja Signs Defense Deal With Turkey Amid Escalating Jihadist Insurgency

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