Brazil

United States

Cyber

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

The Brazilian Supreme Court resumed a trial on big tech companies' responsibilities for content posted on their platforms, Folha de S.Paulo reported on June 4. 

Brazil: Trial on Big Tech Rules Portends Regulatory, Political Risks

Europe

The European Commission proposed amendments to the General Data Protection Regulation in the bloc's latest Omnibus Simplification Package, released on May 21. 

EU: Proposed GDPR Amendments Unlikely To Increase Competitiveness

United Arab Emirates

Abu Dhabi's Technology Innovation Institute released a new version of its Arabic-language large language model, Falcon Arabic, claiming that the model matches the performance of those 10 times its size, Bloomberg reported on May 21.

UAE: New Falcon AI Model Signals Ambitious Tech Goals

Japan

Military & Security

Japan's ruling party and most major opposition parties in the Diet passed the Active Cyber Defense Law, which will enable the government to take offensive cyber action during peacetime against overseas targets believed to be facilitating cyberattacks against Japan, The Asahi Shimbun reported on May 16. 

Japan: New Cyber Offensive Law Highlights Broad Support for Curbing Pacifism

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has withdrawn plans for new rules that limit U.S. data brokers' ability to sell sensitive information, Wired reported May 14, based on a notice set to publish May 15 in the Federal Register.

U.S.: CFPB Scraps Plans to Protect Americans From Data Brokers

The European Commission is considering simplifying the EU Artificial Intelligence Act's implementation following an expected upcoming review, though no fundamental changes to the rules are expected to occur, Politico reported on May 13, citing Kilian Gross, head of the commission’s AI policy unit.

EU: Commission Open To Amending Landmark Artificial Intelligence Act

TeleMessage, a modified version of the Signal messaging app that then-U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz was pictured using during an April 30 White House meeting, has been hacked, 404 Media reported May 4.

U.S.: Modified Version of Signal Messaging App Used by the White House Was Hacked

Vietnam

Vietnam's Ministry of Public Security will assume a majority stake in FPT Telecom, one of the country's largest internet providers, Reuters reported on April 18.

Vietnam: Security Ministry Takes Majority Stake in Major Telecoms Company

<p>Individuals, companies, governments and militaries alike all depend on computers. And as is so often the case, these dependencies create vulnerabilities that have made cybersecurity all the more important as proficiencies in cyber warfare and cyber crime improve. That technology constantly improves only adds to the problem of staying safe in the internet age. How governments and their constituents attune themselves to this brave new world will ultimately shape their relationship with the internet &mdash; and with each other.</p>

That technology constantly improves only adds to the problem of staying safe in the internet age.

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

Security

Modernizing China’s Military

Globalization

Echoes of the Cold War

China in Transition

Media

Podcasts

What role does AI play as both a disruptor and a tool in the risk management space? 

Applied Geopolitics: Leveraging AI To Anticipate and Mitigate Geopolitical and Supply Chain Risks 

Assessments

Iran

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Workers at a quarry Feb. 26, 2025 in the Zhytomyr region of Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Von der Leyen Meets Starmer, a U.S.-Ukraine Minerals Deal

U.S.-Iran Relations

Sub-Saharan Africa

Energy

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

Intensifying trade wars, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, continued volatility in the Middle East and consequential elections in key countries will shape the quarter.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Global Elections

U.S.-China Relations

China

A photo of the U.S. Capitol overlaid with a pixilated blue and red pattern.

The United States will continue to prioritize AI innovation over regulation, and the European Union is set to partially reconsider its rules amid a broader push to increase competitiveness. 

The Future of AI Regulation Under the West's New Leadership

Israel

Syria

Russia

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Algeria

Iraq

Jordan

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Tunisia

Turkey

Yemen

Taiwan

Belarus

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

What is Salt Typhoon, and what happened in the recent hack against U.S. telecommunications companies? 

Essential Geopolitics: Unpacking China's Salt Typhoon Operation

India

The Geopolitics of Water

Water utilities are uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks due to frequent financial and security limitations, exposing water-stressed countries to threats from hacktivists and foreign adversaries.

 The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags. Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Columns

On Geopolitics

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

Snapshots

Germany

France

The U.S. and EU flags.

Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. 

What Trump's Return to Office Means for the European Union

Indian soldiers walk along a road near the Zojila mountain pass that connects to Ladakh, bordering China, on Feb. 28, 2021. 

While their recent efforts to ease bilateral tensions will probably reduce the risk of border clashes, deep-seated mistrust between the two strategic rivals will very likely limit the scope of any reconciliation. 

After a Tense Few Years, India and China Try To Turn Down the Heat

Cyber

SITUATION REPORTS

Brazil: Trial on Big Tech Rules Portends Regulatory, Political Risks

EU: Proposed GDPR Amendments Unlikely To Increase Competitiveness

UAE: New Falcon AI Model Signals Ambitious Tech Goals

Japan: New Cyber Offensive Law Highlights Broad Support for Curbing Pacifism

U.S.: CFPB Scraps Plans to Protect Americans From Data Brokers

EU: Commission Open To Amending Landmark Artificial Intelligence Act

U.S.: Modified Version of Signal Messaging App Used by the White House Was Hacked

Vietnam: Security Ministry Takes Majority Stake in Major Telecoms Company

Forecasts

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