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Politics

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed an executive order on March 30 that requires artificial intelligence companies seeking state contracts to implement AI safety guardrails, Reuters reported the same day.

U.S.: California Executive Order Requires Companies With State Contracts To Issue AI Safeguards

Russia

Russia's Digital Development Minister Maksut Shadayev said the government was seeking to reduce the use of virtual private networks and had decided to restrict access to additional unidentified foreign platforms as part of a broader tightening of internet controls, Reuters reported on March 31.

Russia: Kremlin Expands VPN Crackdown and Internet Restrictions

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

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Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

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Economics

World Trade Organization negotiators failed to extend their nearly 30-year-old ban on digital trade tariffs at the body's 14th ministerial conference in Cameroon, Bloomberg reported on March 30.

Global: WTO Negotiators Fail To Extend Digital Tariff Ban

Iran

Military & Security

Pro-Iranian hacktivist group Handala publicly stated on its website that it breached and leaked data from the personal inbox of U.S. FBI Director Kash Patel on March 27, Reuters reported the same day.

U.S.: Iranian Threat Actors Claim To Breach FBI Director's Email Inbox

U.S.-Iran Relations

The Trump administration on March 20 issued a national artificial intelligence framework focused on six key areas: protections for children, infrastructure resilience, fair use for creative works, free speech, innovation and workforce development.

U.S.: White House Unveils AI Framework

The FBI seized two websites affiliated with Iran-linked hacktivists known as Handala, TechCrunch reported on March 19.

Iran, U.S.: FBI Seizes Infrastructure of Iran-Linked Group Behind Stryker Hack

Russian authorities have imposed rolling mobile internet blackouts in Moscow since March 5, while allowing access only to a limited set of approved services through a whitelist system, the Financial Times reported on March 14.

Russia: Moscow Internet Blackouts Signal Broader Sovereign Internet Push

Israel

Pro-Iran hacktivist group Handala claimed a cyberattack on U.S.-based medical technology company Stryker Corp. that crippled its operations, Bloomberg reported on March 11.

Iran, U.S., Israel: Pro-Iran Hackers Reportedly Cripple U.S.-Based Medical Technology Company

<p>Individuals, companies, governments and militaries alike all depend on computers. And as is so often the case, these dependencies create vulnerabilities that have made cybersecurity all the more important as proficiencies in cyber warfare and cyber crime improve. That technology constantly improves only adds to the problem of staying safe in the internet age. How governments and their constituents attune themselves to this brave new world will ultimately shape their relationship with the internet &mdash; and with each other.</p>

That technology constantly improves only adds to the problem of staying safe in the internet age.

Security

Modernizing China’s Military

Globalization

Echoes of the Cold War

China in Transition

Assessments

Energy

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

The second quarter will test global resilience as lingering conflicts and energy shocks converge to heighten economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Greenland

China

Taiwan

Norway

Ukraine

India

Pakistan

Global Trade

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

U.S.-China Relations

As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Benin

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Canada

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

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Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Yemen

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Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A container ship arrives Oct. 10 at the Port of Oakland, California. In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

Media

Podcasts

How could advancements in AI increase the threat of state-sponsored cyber activity?

Essential Geopolitics: The Role of AI in State-Sponsored Cyber Espionage Campaigns

While countries will likely increasingly pursue trade deals with digital clauses, the slow pace of regulatory development, coupled with a global tendency toward protectionism, will impede the push toward building out more streamlined digital economy agreements.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Role of Digital Trade in Modern Free Trade Agreements

Snapshots

Flag of China on a red-painted printed circuit board.

Advancements in China's semiconductor sector are reducing Chinese companies' reliance on foreign technology, enabling them to push back more firmly against Western hegemony.

China's Chip Advances Increase Beijing's Leverage in Talks With the U.S.

From left to right, Small Business Administration administrator Kelly Loeffler, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and Environmental Protection Agency administrator Lee Zeldin listen as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a Cabinet meeting on Aug. 26, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

As federal agencies tasked with countering foreign threats are defunded and social media giants relax their rules, the U.S. information space is becoming significantly more vulnerable to state-sponsored manipulation.

U.S. Digital Defenses Weaken, Opening the Door for Nation-State Operations

Essential Geopolitics: What Gabbard's ODNI Cuts Mean for Corporate Security

The Geopolitics of Trade

Protectionist and security-driven data regulations are impeding digital and physical trade, potentially slowing global economic growth and innovation.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Diverging Digital Governance Threatens Data Flows

U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to sign the GENIUS Act in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC, on July 18, 2025. 

The United States has passed its first major federal cryptocurrency law, boosting institutional interest, but broader public adoption remains constrained by regulatory gaps and ongoing risks.

Cryptocurrency Legislation Advances, Sets New Course for U.S. Cryptocurrency Landscape

Cyber

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: California Executive Order Requires Companies With State Contracts To Issue AI Safeguards

Russia: Kremlin Expands VPN Crackdown and Internet Restrictions

Global: WTO Negotiators Fail To Extend Digital Tariff Ban

U.S.: Iranian Threat Actors Claim To Breach FBI Director's Email Inbox

U.S.: White House Unveils AI Framework

Iran, U.S.: FBI Seizes Infrastructure of Iran-Linked Group Behind Stryker Hack

Russia: Moscow Internet Blackouts Signal Broader Sovereign Internet Push

Iran, U.S., Israel: Pro-Iran Hackers Reportedly Cripple U.S.-Based Medical Technology Company

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