Canada

United States

China

Economics

Politics

Following Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Jan. 16 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Carney announced at a news conference that Canada had agreed to exchange the 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles for a scaling quota system, while China will cut tariffs on Canadian canola seeds from 84% to 15%, AP reported the same day.

China, Canada: Deal To Cut Tariffs Comes With U.S. Top of Mind

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

The National Committee for the Administration of the Gaza Strip (NCAG), the 15-person committee of Palestinian technocrats tasked by the U.N. Security Council and the Board of Peace with governing Gaza, convened for the first time in Cairo, Egypt, Reuters reported Jan. 15.

Palestinian Territories: Gaza Committee of Technocrats Convenes for First Time

Cambodia

Cyber

Hundreds of suspected cyberfraud operators rapidly vacated casino compounds in Sihanoukville, Cambodia's notorious scam hub, AFP reported Jan. 16.

Cambodia: Hundreds of Fraudsters Flee Sihanoukville

France

France's Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu suspended parliamentary debate on the 2026 budget after talks with opposition lawmakers failed to yield a compromise, postponing discussions until Jan. 20, Le Monde reported on Jan. 16. 

France: PM Lecornu Suspends 2026 Budget Debate, Weighs Constitutional Options

Taiwan

The United States and Taiwan signed a trade deal to drop U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20% to 15% and for Taiwan to invest $250 billion into U.S. manufacturing, including of semiconductors, which includes $100 billion already pledged by Taiwan's main chipmaker TSMC, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 15.

U.S., Taiwan: Trade Deal Reached, Includes Partial Relief for Chip Tariffs

Mozambique

Mozambican President Daniel Chapo said his government could secure a new support program with the International Monetary Fund following an IMF staff visit to the country scheduled for March, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 15.

Mozambique: President Chapo Hints at IMF Deal by March, Eyes Debt Restructuring Thereafter

Environment, Science & Technology

U.S. President Donald Trump signed a presidential proclamation on Jan. 14 placing a 25% tariff on certain advanced semiconductors under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.

U.S.: Washington Implements Narrow Tariffs on Semiconductors, Delays Decision on CRM Tariffs

Greenland

Europe

Denmark

The United States, Denmark and Greenland agreed on Jan. 14 to establish a high-level working group on Greenland's future following trilateral talks in Washington, the Financial Times reported the same day.

Denmark, U.S., Greenland: Talks Inconclusive as European Allies Build Limited Troop Presence

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant economics analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant economics analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

Beyond Quantitative Easing

The New Silk Road

The Fate of the Eurozone

South America: Split Decisions on Trade

Banking

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

Social Issues

European Disintegration

Russia's Internal Struggle

China in Transition

A Japanese Awakening

East African Integration

Assessments

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

Venezuela

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

Global Trade

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

U.S.-China Relations

Tanzania

A column of Tanzanian soldiers drives past electoral posters of incumbent Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Zanzibar President Hussein Ali Mwinyi in Stone Town on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The Tanzanian government's harsh repression of opposition voices will maintain risks of civil unrest and siphon security forces away from outer regions, creating power vacuums in the south for jihadists to exploit.

Ongoing Repression in Tanzania Shows No Signs of Letting Up

The flag of Greenland, known locally as "Erfalasorput," flies next to the Church of Our Saviour on March 30, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland. 

The United States' aim to acquire Greenland risks triggering a NATO crisis if U.S. and European negotiators fail to reach a settlement.

Europe Weighs Responses to U.S. Pressure Over Greenland

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Iran

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

India

Pakistan

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

U.S.-Iran Relations

Uganda

Supporters of National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate and opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, gather to attend a campaign rally in Kampala, on Nov. 24, 2025. 

President Museveni's expected reelection is set to trigger opposition protests, but a heavy-handed crackdown will likely restore order within weeks, enabling him to resume focus on infrastructure projects and mitigating intra-elite tensions.

Previewing Uganda's General Elections

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

A 3D rendering of the Canadian, U.S. and Mexican flags.

Energy

The White House is expected to utilize threats of scrapping the trilateral pact in favor of bilateral agreements as a high-stakes negotiating tactic, creating a period of intense business uncertainty and market volatility.

The Outlook for USMCA Renegotiation in 2026

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

Saudi-backed forces are seen on the outskirts of Yemen's Hadramawt province, where the UAE-backed secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) recently launched an offensive, on Jan. 3, 2026. 

The Gulf nations' growing battle for influence is straining bilateral ties and fueling proxy conflicts in places like Yemen and Sudan, though both sides will likely avoid any escalation that could harm their economies.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE Pursue Divergent Paths in a Multipolar World

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Brazil

Guyana

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. 

Venezuela's acting president is most likely to cooperate with the United States to keep the country's regime intact, but other, more volatile scenarios remain possible. 

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

Economics

SITUATION REPORTS

China, Canada: Deal To Cut Tariffs Comes With U.S. Top of Mind

Palestinian Territories: Gaza Committee of Technocrats Convenes for First Time

Cambodia: Hundreds of Fraudsters Flee Sihanoukville

France: PM Lecornu Suspends 2026 Budget Debate, Weighs Constitutional Options

U.S., Taiwan: Trade Deal Reached, Includes Partial Relief for Chip Tariffs

Mozambique: President Chapo Hints at IMF Deal by March, Eyes Debt Restructuring Thereafter

U.S.: Washington Implements Narrow Tariffs on Semiconductors, Delays Decision on CRM Tariffs

Denmark, U.S., Greenland: Talks Inconclusive as European Allies Build Limited Troop Presence

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