Canada

United States

China

Economics

Politics

Following Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Jan. 16 meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Carney announced at a news conference that Canada had agreed to exchange the 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles for a scaling quota system, while China will cut tariffs on Canadian canola seeds from 84% to 15%, AP reported the same day.

China, Canada: Deal To Cut Tariffs Comes With U.S. Top of Mind

Cuba

Venezuela

Iran

Russia

Energy

Military & Security

Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodriguez said in an annual address before the National Assembly that Venezuela is a sovereign nation that has the right to maintain ties with Russia, China, Iran and Cuba, El Pais reported on Jan. 15.

Venezuela: Rodriguez Outlines Challenging Balancing Act in Speech Before National Assembly

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The National Committee for the Administration of the Gaza Strip (NCAG), the 15-person committee of Palestinian technocrats tasked by the U.N. Security Council and the Board of Peace with governing Gaza, convened for the first time in Cairo, Egypt, Reuters reported Jan. 15.

Palestinian Territories: Gaza Committee of Technocrats Convenes for First Time

Cambodia

Cyber

Hundreds of suspected cyberfraud operators rapidly vacated casino compounds in Sihanoukville, Cambodia's notorious scam hub, AFP reported Jan. 16.

Cambodia: Hundreds of Fraudsters Flee Sihanoukville

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Yemen's Saudi-backed Presidential Leadership Council appointed a fresh prime minister who is a former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and dismissed a Southern Transitional Council member on Jan. 15, Al Jazeera reported on Jan. 16, citing Yemen's Saba state news.

Yemen: Leadership Changes in Anti-Houthi Bloc Tighten Saudi Arabia's Grip on Yemen

France

France's Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu suspended parliamentary debate on the 2026 budget after talks with opposition lawmakers failed to yield a compromise, postponing discussions until Jan. 20, Le Monde reported on Jan. 16. 

France: PM Lecornu Suspends 2026 Budget Debate, Weighs Constitutional Options

U.S. President Donald Trump met with Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado behind closed doors in Washington, D.C., and while there was no statement to the press, Machado greeted supporters outside the White House and said Venezuelans count on Trump "for the freedom of Venezuela," The Wall Street Journal reported on Jan. 15.

U.S., Venezuela: Trump Meets Opposition Leader Machado Behind Closed Doors

Taiwan

The United States and Taiwan signed a trade deal to drop U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20% to 15% and for Taiwan to invest $250 billion into U.S. manufacturing, including of semiconductors, which includes $100 billion already pledged by Taiwan's main chipmaker TSMC, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 15.

U.S., Taiwan: Trade Deal Reached, Includes Partial Relief for Chip Tariffs

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant politics analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant politics analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

The Post-Apartheid Era Ends

Venezuela's Unraveling

The Saudi Survival Strategy

The Kurdish Struggle

Israel's Survival Strategy

Turkey's Resurgence

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

Brexit

Old Leaders in a New Africa

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The Pulse of Political Islam

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Russia's Internal Struggle

China in Transition

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Syria

Turkey

Residents wave Somali flags as they attend a rally denouncing Israel's recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland at Mogadishu Stadium in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Dec. 30, 2025. 

Two regional alignments are coalescing along the Red Sea and in the Horn of Africa, risking the escalation of proxy conflicts and longstanding rivalries.

The Unfolding Regional Realignments Along the Red Sea and Their Implications

Snapshots

Romania

Moldova

Moldovan President Maia Sandu (R) and Romanian President Nicusor Dan on June 10, 2025, in Chisinau, Moldova. Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Maia Sandu's backing of a hypothetical union signals that joining Romania could eventually emerge as an alternative strategy to Moldova's current plan to join the European Union as an independent state.

Romanian-Moldovan Unification Remains Unlikely, Despite Moldovan President's Endorsement

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

Global Trade

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

U.S.-China Relations

Mozambique

Tanzania

A column of Tanzanian soldiers drives past electoral posters of incumbent Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan and Zanzibar President Hussein Ali Mwinyi in Stone Town on Oct. 30, 2025. 

The Tanzanian government's harsh repression of opposition voices will maintain risks of civil unrest and siphon security forces away from outer regions, creating power vacuums in the south for jihadists to exploit.

Ongoing Repression in Tanzania Shows No Signs of Letting Up

People gather during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 8, 2026. 

The severity of Iran's crackdown on protesters makes it highly likely that Trump will authorize some form of action (e.g., sanctions, cyberattacks or military strikes), with Tehran likely to respond proportionally unless the regime's survival is threatened.

The Risks and Implications of a U.S. Attack Against Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

Greenland

The flag of Greenland, known locally as "Erfalasorput," flies next to the Church of Our Saviour on March 30, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland. 

The United States' aim to acquire Greenland risks triggering a NATO crisis if U.S. and European negotiators fail to reach a settlement.

Europe Weighs Responses to U.S. Pressure Over Greenland

Iraq

Lebanon

A stock image shows the silhouettes of soldiers.

Emboldened by its recent capture of Venezuela's Maduro, the White House will likely seek to kill and potentially abduct more Middle Eastern extremists in the coming year, but pursuing high-profile targets like Iranian leaders will carry significant risks.

Potential Targets for U.S. Assassination and Abduction Operations in the Middle East

Nigeria

Colombia

Mexico

Norway

Ukraine

India

Pakistan

Environment, Science & Technology

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Uganda

Supporters of National Unity Platform (NUP) presidential candidate and opposition leader Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, gather to attend a campaign rally in Kampala, on Nov. 24, 2025. 

President Museveni's expected reelection is set to trigger opposition protests, but a heavy-handed crackdown will likely restore order within weeks, enabling him to resume focus on infrastructure projects and mitigating intra-elite tensions.

Previewing Uganda's General Elections

Soldiers ride atop an armored vehicle during a military parade in Idlib, Syria, on Dec. 8, 2025. 

Domestic political maneuvering and limits on foreign military support will constrain Syria's ability to rebuild its military following the end of the country's civil war.

Internal Divisions Will Hinder Syria's Military Modernization

Columns

On Security

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

Politics

SITUATION REPORTS

China, Canada: Deal To Cut Tariffs Comes With U.S. Top of Mind

Venezuela: Rodriguez Outlines Challenging Balancing Act in Speech Before National Assembly

Palestinian Territories: Gaza Committee of Technocrats Convenes for First Time

Cambodia: Hundreds of Fraudsters Flee Sihanoukville

Yemen: Leadership Changes in Anti-Houthi Bloc Tighten Saudi Arabia's Grip on Yemen

France: PM Lecornu Suspends 2026 Budget Debate, Weighs Constitutional Options

U.S., Venezuela: Trump Meets Opposition Leader Machado Behind Closed Doors

U.S., Taiwan: Trade Deal Reached, Includes Partial Relief for Chip Tariffs

Forecasts

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