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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Dozens of heads of state and government met in Paris, France, on July 13 for a "coalition of the willing" summit in support of Ukraine, where participants announced an anti-ballistic missile coalition, Reuters reported the same day.

Ukraine, Europe: Paris Summit Deepens Kyiv's Long-Term Defense Ties With Europe

Energy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced he would replace Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and overhaul his Cabinet as part of an updated political strategy, with Naftogaz CEO Serhii Koretskyi emerging as the frontrunner to succeed her, the Financial Times reported on July 12.

Ukraine: Zelensky Announces Cabinet Reshuffle Ahead of Winter

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France

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Leaders of the "coalition of the willing" for Ukraine are meeting in Paris, France, on July 13, with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also attending, to discuss air and missile defense, missile production, joint exercises and Russia's shadow fleet, Le Monde reported the same day. 

Europe, Ukraine: Coalition of the Willing Meets in Paris, Set To Declare Postwar Force Ready

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the United States was mistaken to believe that Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure could pressure Moscow to resume peace talks, warning that escalation could prolong the war and force Russia to create a larger "security zone," Reuters reported on July 9.

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Says Ukrainian Strikes Could Prolong War, Not End It

Russia launched another deadly attack on Kyiv, Ukraine, killing at least 15 people and injuring 56 others, Interfax-Ukraine reported on July 6.

Russia, Ukraine: Another Deadly Strike on Kyiv Points to Hardening Kremlin War Line

Ukrainian drones hit Russia's Omsk oil refinery, which is located almost 1,500 miles (2,414 kilometers) east of Ukraine and deep inside Siberia, near Russia's border with Kazakhstan, Kommersant reported on July 6.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Crisis

Russia launched a large overnight missile and drone attack against Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, killing at least 21 people in the capital and injuring more than 90, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported on July 2.

Russia, Ukraine: Deadly Russian Barrage on Kyiv Raises Pressure for More Air Defenses

In a June 26 letter to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), Ukraine argued that it could legally attack Russian shadow fleet vessels, contending tankers transporting Russian oil and gas should be treated as ordinary commercial ships, given their role in generating revenue for Russia's war effort, the Financial Times reported June 30.

Ukraine, Russia: IMO Dispute Will Increase Shadow Fleet Scrutiny

Snapshots

Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026, outside of Moscow, Russia.

Russia will retain the ability to produce and export most of its oil, but sustained Ukrainian strikes will erode its refining capacity, exacerbate domestic fuel shortages and raise the risk of deeper production cuts.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

Assessments

Turkey

Billboards are seen ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, on June 26, 2026.

Recent U.S. military drawdowns in Germany and threatened reductions in Italy and Spain underscore the stakes of the summit on July 7-8.

Transatlantic Tensions Set To Dominate NATO Summit in Ankara

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Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Third-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Belarus

An officer of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stands on a destroyed bridge over the Dnipro River, which forms the state border between Ukraine and Belarus, on June 1, 2026.

The threat of Ukrainian retaliatory strikes and Belarus's limited offensive capabilities will likely keep Minsk from directly entering the conflict, but the country will remain a critical base for Russian military pressure against Ukraine and NATO.

Despite Russian Pressure, Belarus Remains Unlikely to Join the Ukraine War

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A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

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Vessels at anchorage June 18 in Bandar Abbas, Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 is highly likely to remain in effect over the coming week, and negotiations toward a final deal will begin.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Iranian Talks, Colombia's Presidential Runoff

A Ukrainian flag flies in Riga, Latvia, on May 18, 2026.

Even a sustainable peace settlement would leave Kyiv grappling with a $600 billion reconstruction bill, demanding high levels of foreign direct investment and stringent governance reforms.

Ukraine's Defense Will Continue To Strain Government Finances

United Kingdom

Poland

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk attend a signing ceremony of a UK-Poland defence and security treaty at the Battle of Britain Bunker on May 27 in London, England.

Concerned about the reliability of the United States' security commitments, European nations are increasingly relying on bilateral defense agreements to secure their strategic interests and deter Russian aggression.


U.K. and Poland Hedge Against Transatlantic Uncertainty With Bilateral Treaty

Technicians work at the main blast furnace at the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works on Feb. 12, 2024 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Part two of this report examines how either a comprehensive peace agreement or a severe escalation of the war would affect Ukraine's investment climate.



Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 2

An employee assembles a long-range drone in a workshop of the Fire Point company, which manufactures FP-1 deep-strike drones and FP-2 strike drones, Jan. 29 in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

This two-part report outlines how the trajectory of the war with Russia will act as the ultimate determinant of capital allocation and economic recovery in Ukraine.

Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 1

A view taken on Dec. 13, 2023, shows pumping units at the grounds of a fuel tank farm of Russia's oil pipeline giant Transneft.

The intensifying drone strikes are unlikely to trigger an oil sector crisis or alter Moscow's war calculus, but they will financially drain Russian oil companies, even as high prices buoy the Kremlin's revenues.

Assessing the Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Sector

EU and Ukrainian flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters on Feb. 23, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium.

While a European mediator may unblock frozen peace talks, a durable peace settlement remains unlikely until both Russia and Ukraine conclude that continued war is more costly than compromise.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, Europe: Paris Summit Deepens Kyiv's Long-Term Defense Ties With Europe

Ukraine: Zelensky Announces Cabinet Reshuffle Ahead of Winter

Europe, Ukraine: Coalition of the Willing Meets in Paris, Set To Declare Postwar Force Ready

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Says Ukrainian Strikes Could Prolong War, Not End It

Russia, Ukraine: Another Deadly Strike on Kyiv Points to Hardening Kremlin War Line

Russia, Ukraine: Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Crisis

Russia, Ukraine: Deadly Russian Barrage on Kyiv Raises Pressure for More Air Defenses

Ukraine, Russia: IMO Dispute Will Increase Shadow Fleet Scrutiny

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