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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv had conveyed new proposals for ending the Russia-Ukraine war to the United States, adding that Russia planned to mobilize several hundred thousand additional troops after its September parliamentary election, Reuters reported on Aug. 11.

Ukraine, Russia: Any Renewed U.S. Talks Are Unlikely To Produce a Near-Term Ceasefire 

Turkey

Moldova

Economics

Ukraine and Moldova are negotiating a rail corridor to move Ukrainian grain through Moldova to Romania's port of Constanta, with Kyiv seeking a 50% freight discount and Chisinau demanding volume guarantees in return, Reuters reported on Aug. 10.

Ukraine, Moldova: Rail Corridor Will Ease but Not Offset Grain Export Losses

An explosive device planted in the car of Russian drone manufacturer Vladimir Tkachuk seriously wounded him and killed his driver near Yekaterinburg, marking the second attack on a Russian drone developer within a week, Reuters reported on Aug. 5.

Russia, Ukraine: Targeted Attacks Will Keep Russian War Officials at Risk

Europe

Lithuania

Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said the country's military intelligence uncovered indications that Russia was weighing unconventional kinetic attacks on Baltic critical infrastructure using Ukrainian-made drones to maintain plausible deniability, LRT reported Aug. 6.

Europe, Russia: Lithuania Warns of Possible Russian False-Flag Drone Attacks in the Baltics

Ukraine received only one-third as many allied air-defense missiles during the first half of 2026 as it did during the same period in 2025, President Volodymyr Zelensky said after a Russian attack involving 24 ballistic missiles, four Zircon cruise missiles and 115 drones killed at least 17 people, Reuters reported on Aug. 5. 

Ukraine, Russia: Patriot Shortage Will Give Moscow Winter Leverage

Germany

German police found a drone carrying an explosive device on the tarmac at Leipzig/Halle airport shortly before midnight on Aug. 4, beside an Antonov Airlines cargo aircraft, Bild reported Aug. 5.

Germany: Drone Carrying Explosives Found at Leipzig Airport Beside Ukrainian Cargo Aircraft

Energy

Ukrainian Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said in an Aug. 3 interview with Politico that Kyiv hoped refinery strikes and Western sanctions would force Russia to end the war this fall, but he warned that Moscow would otherwise resume large-scale attacks on Ukraine's energy, water and sewage infrastructure.

Ukraine, Russia: Energy Deficit Will Deepen Ukraine's Winter Vulnerability

North Korea

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said preliminary evidence indicated that Russia used a North Korean ballistic missile to strike a home in Radushne, near Kryvyi Rih, killing two parents and three of their children, Reuters reported on July 30.

Russia, Ukraine: Russia's Use of North Korean Missiles Deepens Ukraine's Air Defense Crisis

Snapshots

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (center) chats with U.S. senators before heading to a closed-door meeting at the U.S. Capitol on July 28, 2026. 

If enacted, the proposed bill would give Trump broad new authority to impose tariffs on major Russian oil buyers, but selective enforcement means it would unlikely compel Russia to end its war in Ukraine.

New U.S. Sanctions Bill Unlikely To Impact Russia's Oil Exports or War Strategy

Assessments

Peru

Iran

Israel

United Kingdom

A couple rides past Iranian-made Zolfaghar missiles displayed at Azadi Square in Tehran on July 24.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Likely U.S. Escalation in Iran, Zelensky Travels to Washington

U.S.-Iran Relations

Ukrainian servicemen maintain a 2S22 Bohdana self-propelled howitzer near Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region on May 27 in Pokrovsk, Ukraine.

With grinding ground offensives yielding minimal gains at a severe human cost, Moscow is likely to escalate devastating aerial strikes designed to cripple critical infrastructure and force Kyiv into concessions.


What the Fall of Kostiantynivka Would Mean for the Ukraine War 

People gather for a second consecutive day of protests in central Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 17, 2026, following the controversial dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.

Zelensky's potentially imminent decision to dismiss the army chief under mounting public pressure would weaken his authority, while prolonged turmoil could further strain Ukraine's war effort.

Defense Minister's Ouster Plunges Ukraine Into Biggest Wartime Political Crisis Yet

Albania

Montenegro

A man checks the flags of EU countries in 2004. 

Recent negotiations saw Montenegro and Albania pushed into advanced legislative alignment while Brussels expanded accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova.


The Progress, Prospects and Risks of EU Enlargement

Cars stand in line for gasoline at a Lukoil gas station on July 8, 2026, outside of Moscow, Russia.

Russia will retain the ability to produce and export most of its oil, but sustained Ukrainian strikes will erode its refining capacity, exacerbate domestic fuel shortages and raise the risk of deeper production cuts.

Ukrainian Strikes Deepen Russia's Fuel Refining Crisis

Billboards are seen ahead of the upcoming NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, on June 26, 2026.

Recent U.S. military drawdowns in Germany and threatened reductions in Italy and Spain underscore the stakes of the summit on July 7-8.

Transatlantic Tensions Set To Dominate NATO Summit in Ankara

Media

Cuba

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Third-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Belarus

An officer of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine stands on a destroyed bridge over the Dnipro River, which forms the state border between Ukraine and Belarus, on June 1, 2026.

The threat of Ukrainian retaliatory strikes and Belarus's limited offensive capabilities will likely keep Minsk from directly entering the conflict, but the country will remain a critical base for Russian military pressure against Ukraine and NATO.

Despite Russian Pressure, Belarus Remains Unlikely to Join the Ukraine War

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

A fragile truce in the Middle East, persistent energy-driven inflation, shifting U.S. trade policy and escalating regional pressures from Europe to Africa will collectively shape geopolitical risk in the third quarter.

2026 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Botswana

Lesotho

Namibia

South Africa

Eswatini

Colombia

Vessels at anchorage June 18 in Bandar Abbas, Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 is highly likely to remain in effect over the coming week, and negotiations toward a final deal will begin.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Iranian Talks, Colombia's Presidential Runoff

A Ukrainian flag flies in Riga, Latvia, on May 18, 2026.

Even a sustainable peace settlement would leave Kyiv grappling with a $600 billion reconstruction bill, demanding high levels of foreign direct investment and stringent governance reforms.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, Russia: Any Renewed U.S. Talks Are Unlikely To Produce a Near-Term Ceasefire

Ukraine, Moldova: Rail Corridor Will Ease but Not Offset Grain Export Losses

Russia, Ukraine: Targeted Attacks Will Keep Russian War Officials at Risk

Europe, Russia: Lithuania Warns of Possible Russian False-Flag Drone Attacks in the Baltics

Ukraine, Russia: Patriot Shortage Will Give Moscow Winter Leverage

Germany: Drone Carrying Explosives Found at Leipzig Airport Beside Ukrainian Cargo Aircraft

Ukraine, Russia: Energy Deficit Will Deepen Ukraine's Winter Vulnerability

Russia, Ukraine: Russia's Use of North Korean Missiles Deepens Ukraine's Air Defense Crisis

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