Ukraine

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Citing Ukrainian intelligence, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had begun pulling air defense systems from other regions and from occupied Ukrainian territory to reinforce the defense of Moscow and the Kerch Bridge, which links Crimea to Russia, Interfax-Ukraine reported on June 24.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Reallocates Air Defenses To Protect Capital and Kerch Bridge

During a meeting with military academy graduates, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russian forces were close to securing the contested Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka, Interfax reported on June 23.

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Escalates War Rhetoric Amid Intensifying Ukrainian Deep Strikes

Ukrainian missiles struck the Voronezh Semiconductor Devices Plant, a sanctioned defense facility that produces integrated circuits and power modules for Russian missiles, including Kh-101 and Iskander systems, Vedomosti reported on June 22.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine's Deep Strikes Stretch Russia's War Machine

Economics

Energy

Scores of Ukrainian drones and missiles targeted Moscow overnight, hitting Moscow's Kapotnya Oil Refinery for the second time in a week, disrupting airport operations and forcing road closures in and around the capital, Reuters reported on June 17.

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine Hits Kapotnya as Russia's Fuel Strains Grow

The Group of Seven leaders agreed to increase deliveries of air defense systems, interceptors and long-range capabilities to Ukraine and said they were ready to grant Ukraine licenses to expand military production, Reuters reported on June 17.

Ukraine, G7, Russia: G7 Licensing Plan Will Not Quickly Fix Ukraine's Air Defense Gap

United States

Politics

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had discussed strengthening Ukraine's air defenses with U.S. President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in France, including air defense systems and possible licenses for Ukraine to produce anti-ballistic systems and missiles, RBC-Ukraine reported on June 16. 

Ukraine, U.S.: G7 Partners Press Trump on Ukraine's Air Defense Gap

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had offered to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin during the Group of Seven summit in France on June 15-17, but Russia was not ready to speak despite U.S. and European support for the idea, Reuters reported on June 15.

Ukraine, Russia: Zelensky's Offer To Meet Putin Is Unlikely To Restart Ceasefire Talks

Germany

France

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom, France and Germany, known as the E3, plan to use meetings with U.S. President Donald Trump at the Group of Seven summit on June 15-17 to seek U.S. backing for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire proposal that would use the current front line as the starting point for negotiations and include robust security guarantees for Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on June 11.

EU, Russia, Ukraine: Europe Sees Narrow Opening for Ukraine Talks as Russia Targets Kostiantynivka

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Iran

Vessels at anchorage June 18 in Bandar Abbas, Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed June 17 is highly likely to remain in effect over the coming week, and negotiations toward a final deal will begin.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Iranian Talks, Colombia's Presidential Runoff

U.S.-Iran Relations

A Ukrainian flag flies in Riga, Latvia, on May 18, 2026.

Even a sustainable peace settlement would leave Kyiv grappling with a $600 billion reconstruction bill, demanding high levels of foreign direct investment and stringent governance reforms.

Ukraine's Defense Will Continue To Strain Government Finances

Snapshots

Poland

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk attend a signing ceremony of a UK-Poland defence and security treaty at the Battle of Britain Bunker on May 27 in London, England.

Concerned about the reliability of the United States' security commitments, European nations are increasingly relying on bilateral defense agreements to secure their strategic interests and deter Russian aggression.


U.K. and Poland Hedge Against Transatlantic Uncertainty With Bilateral Treaty

Technicians work at the main blast furnace at the Zaporizhstal Iron and Steel Works on Feb. 12, 2024 in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine.

Part two of this report examines how either a comprehensive peace agreement or a severe escalation of the war would affect Ukraine's investment climate.



Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 2

An employee assembles a long-range drone in a workshop of the Fire Point company, which manufactures FP-1 deep-strike drones and FP-2 strike drones, Jan. 29 in an undisclosed location in Ukraine.

This two-part report outlines how the trajectory of the war with Russia will act as the ultimate determinant of capital allocation and economic recovery in Ukraine.

Scenarios for the Future of Foreign Investment in Ukraine, Part 1

A view taken on Dec. 13, 2023, shows pumping units at the grounds of a fuel tank farm of Russia's oil pipeline giant Transneft.

The intensifying drone strikes are unlikely to trigger an oil sector crisis or alter Moscow's war calculus, but they will financially drain Russian oil companies, even as high prices buoy the Kremlin's revenues.

Assessing the Impact of Ukrainian Strikes on Russia's Oil Sector

Europe

EU and Ukrainian flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters on Feb. 23, 2025, in Brussels, Belgium.

While a European mediator may unblock frozen peace talks, a durable peace settlement remains unlikely until both Russia and Ukraine conclude that continued war is more costly than compromise.

The Limited Promise of EU Mediation in Ukraine Peace Talks

Russian officers patrol central Moscow on May 5, 2026, in front of the Kremlin, a few days ahead of the Victory Day military parade, to be held at Red Square on May 9. 

While Ukraine is unlikely to attack Moscow during the May 9 parade, its expanding long-range strike capabilities will steadily increase the war's political, economic and psychological toll on Russia ahead of the September elections.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia on Edge Ahead of Victory Day Parade

Lithuania

Latvia

Estonia

Eurasia

A soldier from the "Taifun" unmanned aerial vehicle unit prepares a new strike drone for flight on April 7, 2026 in Ukraine. 

Although Moscow is threatening retaliation against Baltic states over supposed involvement in Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, the Kremlin will not risk a direct military confrontation with NATO.


Direct NATO-Russia Confrontation in the Baltic Unlikely, Despite Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Energy Infrastructure 

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The second quarter will test global resilience as lingering conflicts and energy shocks converge to heighten economic uncertainty and geopolitical volatility.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

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The European Parliament building in 2019 in Strasbourg, France. Parliament is set to hold a plenary vote March 26 on implementing the 2025 EU‑U.S. trade framework agreement.

The Weekly Rundown: A Vote on the EU‑U.S. Trade Framework, the Iran Conflict Continues

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting in Moscow on the global oil and gas market situation on March 9, 2026.

The current surge in demand for Russian oil will likely be short-lived, but weaker sanctions enforcement and higher energy prices could nonetheless buoy Moscow's capacity to fund its war in Ukraine.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Reallocates Air Defenses To Protect Capital and Kerch Bridge

Russia, Ukraine: Putin Escalates War Rhetoric Amid Intensifying Ukrainian Deep Strikes

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine's Deep Strikes Stretch Russia's War Machine

Ukraine, Russia: Ukraine Hits Kapotnya as Russia's Fuel Strains Grow

Ukraine, G7, Russia: G7 Licensing Plan Will Not Quickly Fix Ukraine's Air Defense Gap

Ukraine, U.S.: G7 Partners Press Trump on Ukraine's Air Defense Gap

Ukraine, Russia: Zelensky's Offer To Meet Putin Is Unlikely To Restart Ceasefire Talks

EU, Russia, Ukraine: Europe Sees Narrow Opening for Ukraine Talks as Russia Targets Kostiantynivka

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