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On Geopolitics

A view in Rostock, Germany, of the first exit of warships for the NATO exercise BALTOPS in the Baltic Sea on June 5, 2025.
On GeopoliticsAug 1, 2025
Baltic on the Brink: The New Flashpoint in Europe's Confrontation With Russia

In response to Russian aggression, NATO is seeking to establish strategic control over the Baltic Sea via rearmament and more assertive posturing, creating an environment where the risk of miscalculation grows exponentially.

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to go out on patrol from a remote combat outpost in northeastern Syria on May 25, 2021.
On GeopoliticsJul 17, 2025
In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

The U.S. is shifting its Syria strategy from isolation to limited engagement to stabilize the country and protect American interests there, but Turkey and Israel's competing influence campaigns could complicate Washington's approach.

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025.
On GeopoliticsJul 16, 2025
Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025.
On GeopoliticsJul 9, 2025
A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy
An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025.
On GeopoliticsJul 7, 2025
The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran.
On GeopoliticsJun 20, 2025
Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025.
On GeopoliticsJun 17, 2025
Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?
U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.
On GeopoliticsJun 5, 2025
Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.
On GeopoliticsMay 22, 2025
Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow.
On GeopoliticsMay 22, 2025
The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.
On GeopoliticsMay 20, 2025
Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

On GeopoliticsMay 15, 2025
Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard
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