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On Geopolitics

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran.
On GeopoliticsJun 20, 2025
Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

By Matthew Bey
An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025.
On GeopoliticsJun 17, 2025
Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

By Kristin Ronzi
U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.
On GeopoliticsJun 5, 2025
Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

By Ryan Bohl
A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.
On GeopoliticsMay 22, 2025
Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later
By Chase Blazek
Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow.
On GeopoliticsMay 22, 2025
The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy
Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.
On GeopoliticsMay 20, 2025
Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

By Matthew Bey
On GeopoliticsMay 15, 2025
Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard
By Markus Jaeger
A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England.
On GeopoliticsMay 9, 2025
Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

By Ryan Bohl
The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.
On GeopoliticsMay 7, 2025
The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations

The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.

By Sam Lichtenstein
A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025.
On GeopoliticsMay 1, 2025
France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.
On GeopoliticsApr 30, 2025
France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

By Rémi Dodd
A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel.
On GeopoliticsApr 21, 2025
Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon
By Freddy Khoueiry
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