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On Geopolitics

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.
On GeopoliticsJun 5, 2025
Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

By Ryan Bohl
A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.
On GeopoliticsMay 22, 2025
Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

By Chase Blazek
Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow.
On GeopoliticsMay 22, 2025
The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.
On GeopoliticsMay 20, 2025
Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials
By Matthew Bey
On GeopoliticsMay 15, 2025
Trump's Tariffs Will Hit Developing Economies Hard
By Markus Jaeger
A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England.
On GeopoliticsMay 9, 2025
Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

By Ryan Bohl
The allure of implementing a sphere of influence model is more likely to disappoint those who may argue that it would create more stability and security.
On GeopoliticsMay 7, 2025
The Temptations of a Sphere-of-Influence Model of International Relations
By Sam Lichtenstein
A Gabonese brigade participates in a training exercise as part of a military program linked to the Franco-Gabonese partnership at the French military base Camp de Gaulle in Libreville on March 19, 2025.
On GeopoliticsMay 1, 2025
France, Africa and the Future, Part 2: The Age of Multi-Alignment

France's reduced influence in Africa will create space for local and foreign actors to take on greater leadership roles, but their inability to fill the security vacuum left by France's withdrawal would threaten to destabilize the region.

A picture released on July 12, 1963, of then-French President Gen. Charles de Gaulle (2L) and Jacques Foccart (L) greeting African, Malagasy and French overseas territories veterans arriving in Paris for French Bastille Day celebrations.
On GeopoliticsApr 30, 2025
France, Africa and the Future, Part 1: A New Balance of Power

After decades of cultivating tight-knit relationships with francophone African countries, France has effectively ended its forward military presence in West and Central Africa amid shifting political dynamics in both regions, which will weaken its influence on the continent but enable Paris to reallocate resources towards Europe's security.

By Rémi Dodd
A Lebanese flag painted on a damaged building in the village of Meiss El-Jabal in southern Lebanon is seen from a position on the Israeli side of the border on Jan. 23, 2025, in northern Israel.
On GeopoliticsApr 21, 2025
Hezbollah's Future in Lebanon

Hezbollah's military losses and the formation of Lebanon's new government have opened the door to a new chapter in Lebanese history, although external pressure will complicate the country's next steps.

By Freddy Khoueiry
A crowd of men in 1930 wearing jackets and hats.
On GeopoliticsApr 18, 2025
Lessons From the 1930s on Avoiding a Second Great Depression

U.S. tariffs are throwing economies across the globe into disarray, just as they did in 1930, but lessons from the past could keep the world from tipping into a second Great Depression.

By Markus Jaeger
NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025.
On GeopoliticsApr 11, 2025
The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe
By Matteo Ilardo
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