Argentina

Economics

Politics

Argentina's center-left opposition coalition Union for the Homeland obtained 47.3% of the votes in the Buenos Aires provincial legislative elections, while the ruling Freedom Advances party gained only 33.7% of the votes, La Nacion reported on Sept. 7.

Argentina: Provincial Electoral Results in Buenos Aires To Fuel Regulatory and Financial Volatility

The Argentine government announced a change in its exchange rate policy and the Treasury will now intervene in the currency market to provide liquidity and defend the peso, Bloomberg reported Sept. 1.

Argentina: Businesses To Face Financial and Regulatory Volatility Amid Scandal, Elections

The Central Bank of Argentina raised the percentage of deposits that banks must hold in reserve to meet liabilities if withdrawals suddenly increase, Reuters reported on Aug. 26.

Argentina: Higher Reserve Requirements To Limit Inflation, Increase Credit Costs, Curb Economic Activity

Americas

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Global Trade

South American bloc Mercosur and Canada will resume talks for a free trade agreement, Brazilian and Canadian officials announced after a meeting in Brasilia, Valor Economico reported Aug. 25.


Mercosur, Canada: Mercosur and Canada Resume Trade Negotiations, but Talks Likely To Last

The Argentine opposition in Congress will create an investigative commission and request hearings of Secretary General of the Presidency Karina Milei (who is also President Javier Milei's sister), Chief of Staff Guillermo Francos and Health Minister Mario Lugones, over a corruption scandal involving the National Agency for Disability, La Nacion reported on Aug. 25. 

Argentina: Corruption Scandal Unlikely To Reverse Ruling Party's Lead Ahead of Legislative Elections

Energy

The 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals in New York suspended the order of a district judge and allowed Argentina to keep its shares in oil and gas company YPF while the country appeals a ruling that ordered the government to transfer its 51% stake in the company, El Pais reported on Aug. 15. 

Argentina: YPF Ruling To Alleviate Short-Term Concerns, But Long-Term Uncertainty Will Persist

Argentina's Chamber of Deputies voted down several decrees President Javier Milei had issued to reform or eliminate bureaucratic bodies, and reactivated a commission to investigate a crypto scandal involving Milei, Clarin reported Aug. 7. 

Argentina: Government's Repeated Defeats in Congress to Fuel Uncertainty Ahead of October Election

President Javier Milei announced a permanent reduction of tariffs on agricultural exports, the so-called retenciones, for soybeans, beef, corn, sorghum and sunflower, La Nacion reported July 26.

Argentina: Milei to Capitalize on Agricultural Export Tax Reduction 

Assessments

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The Geopolitics of Trade

Mercosur is increasingly opening its markets in pursuit of free trade agreements with partners around the world, particularly as U.S. protectionism shifts global trade dynamics.

The Geopolitics of Trade: What Changing Trade Dynamics Mean for Mercosur

Argentina's economy minister Luis Caputo (L) and Argentine President Javier Milei walk from the Casa Rosada Presidential Palace after a meeting on April 14, 2025.

Despite recent progress, Argentina's economic and financial position remains vulnerable over the medium term.

The Challenges Facing Argentina's New IMF Program

Snapshots

A photo shows the national flags of Mercosur countries waving in the wind.

The South American trade bloc's July 2-3 summit will likely advance two key initiatives: increasing member state autonomy on tariff decisions and finalizing free trade deals with countries seeking to avoid U.S. tariffs.

The Mercosur Summit Will Focus on Advancing Tariff Autonomy and Trade Deals

Belize

Chile

Colombia

Costa Rica

Cuba

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

El Salvador

Guatemala

Guyana

Haiti

Honduras

Mexico

Nicaragua

Panama

Peru

Suriname

China

(L-R) Colombian Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina attend a plenary session of the China-CELAC ministerial meeting at the Great Hall of the People on May 13, 2025, in Beijing, China. 

Latin America and the Caribbean will welcome China's increased engagement, but strong ties to the West and China's economic slowdown will limit Beijing's influence in the region.

Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China's Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited

Aerial view of 9 de Julio Avenue in Buenos Aires, Argentina, is seen on April 10, 2025, during a 24-hour strike called by workers' unions against the economic policies of President Javier Milei. 

The $20 billion bailout package will reduce financial risks amid Argentina's ongoing macroeconomic adjustment, but the threat of policy slippage will increase ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

What To Make of Argentina's Latest IMF Deal

The headquarters of Argentina's central bank is seen in Buenos Aires on Feb. 20, 2025.

A new IMF program would improve Argentina's short- and medium-term economic and financial outlook in the face of limited international financial market access and negative foreign exchange reserves.

Argentina's Milei Signs Decree To Clear the Way for a New IMF Deal

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Pakistan

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Cyber

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

President of Argentina Javier Milei speaks during a joint declaration with Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni (not in frame) on Nov. 20, 2024, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. 

Despite rising poverty and protests, Argentina's President Javier Milei will maintain enough support in 2025 to advance economic reforms that stabilize inflation, attract investment and gradually ease capital controls.

What to Expect From Argentina After Milei's First Year in Office 

Germany

France

(From left to right) Argentine President Javier Milei, Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena pose for a photo during the Mercosur summit in Montevideo on Dec. 6, 2024. 

The agreement offers significant market access and diversification opportunities for both trade blocs, but it also faces a complex ratification process and potential political backlash in Europe.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

U.S. border patrol officials drive near the wall along the Mexican border in Sasabe, Arizona, on Dec. 8, 2023. 

The fallout from Trump's pledged tariffs and mass deportations could worsen living conditions in countries like Mexico, though countries with like-minded leaders, like Argentina, may fare better.

What Trump's Focus on Immigration, Trade and Ideology Means for Latin America

Argentine President Javier Milei gestures before presenting the 2025 budget proposal to Congress in Buenos Aires on Sept. 15, 2024. 

Since taking office last year, President Milei has made solid progress toward lowering inflation and debt levels. But without wider-ranging institutional reforms, Argentina will remain susceptible to recurrent economic instability and financial crises.

Milei Puts Argentina's Economy on Better Footing. Can It Last?

An illustrated map shows Mercosur countries.

Stalled trade deals and dwindling intra-bloc commerce will leave the South American trade bloc in a deadlock, likely resulting in only minor rule changes to prevent Mercosur's dissolution.

Mercosur's Latest Meeting Highlights Its Growing Stagnation

Argentina is one of the most resource-rich countries in the world and faces few immediate external threats. The South American country is bound in the north by the rivers of the Rio de la Plata drainage basin, in the west by the Andes Mountains, and in the east by the Atlantic Ocean. Its core territory is the fertile Humid Pampas region, which includes the populous capital city of Buenos Aires. This area is the heart of Argentina’s large agricultural sector, supported by soybeans, wheat, corn and yerba mate. The areas west and south of this core area much more arid and rural but are rich in oil and natural gas. The Andes Mountains, towering to nearly 7,000 meters (23,000 feet), form a natural barrier between Argentina and Chile and protect Argentina's western flank. This protection adds to the natural protection afforded all of South America by its geographic isolation. The only local threat to Argentina is Brazil's growth, which poses a risk to Argentina's control over the all-important Rio de la Plata drainage basin. Argentina's biggest security concern has always been any possible blockade of this basin or of the Port of Buenos Aires, located at the mouth of the river. However, South America's relative isolation and Brazil’s historical weakness have protected post-Colonial Argentina. From its secure position, Argentina has been able to develop the strong agriculture and energy export markets that have made the country wealthy. However, its intrinsic security has also allowed Argentina to become overly focused on domestic issues and has contributed to its failure to develop stable institutions. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Argentina: Provincial Electoral Results in Buenos Aires To Fuel Regulatory and Financial Volatility

Argentina: Businesses To Face Financial and Regulatory Volatility Amid Scandal, Elections

Argentina: Higher Reserve Requirements To Limit Inflation, Increase Credit Costs, Curb Economic Activity

Mercosur, Canada: Mercosur and Canada Resume Trade Negotiations, but Talks Likely To Last

Argentina: Corruption Scandal Unlikely To Reverse Ruling Party's Lead Ahead of Legislative Elections

Argentina: YPF Ruling To Alleviate Short-Term Concerns, But Long-Term Uncertainty Will Persist

Argentina: Government's Repeated Defeats in Congress to Fuel Uncertainty Ahead of October Election

Argentina: Milei to Capitalize on Agricultural Export Tax Reduction

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