Argentina

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

Europe

France

Economics

Politics

The European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc -- which includes Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay -- are reportedly close to finalizing negotiations for a free trade agreement long in the making, Politico reported on Nov. 13, citing sources close to negotiations. 

EU, Mercosur: The Two Blocs Eye Free Trade Deal in Early December

Argentine President Javier Milei presented his 2025 budget proposal promising to deliver a primary surplus of 1.3% of gross domestic product and lower the nominal deficit to zero after interest payments, La Nacion reported on Sept. 16.

Argentina: Milei's Ambitious Budget To Spark Protests Over Social Spending Cuts

France's new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, reiterated Paris' opposition to a free trade deal between the European Union and the Mercosur bloc of Latin American countries, adding France will seek to form a 'blocking minority' in the EU Council, Euractiv reported Sept. 13.

France, EU, South America: Paris Reiterates Opposition to EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement

Military & Security

Argentina's lower house of Congress failed to reach the two-thirds majority needed to override President Javier Milei's veto of a bill that would have increased pensions, La Nacion reported Sept. 11.

Argentina: Protests Over Pension Increase Veto and Inflation Unlikely to Escalate

Argentine President Javier Milei will veto a pension reform bill Congress approved that aimed to increase pensions in line with the country's triple-digit annual inflation, Clarin reported on Aug. 23.

Argentina: President's Pension Reform Veto Unlikely To Fuel Significant Political Instability

Argentina's Chamber of Deputies approved a package of economic reform measures that create incentives for foreign investment, open the door to the privatization of a handful of state-owned enterprises, lower the cost of firing workers, and deregulate the oil and gas sector, Bloomberg reported on June 28.

Argentina: Chamber of Deputies Passes Significant Package of Economic Reforms

Argentina's Senate approved a large package of economic reforms, including the creation of a Large Investment Incentive Regime (or RIGI in Spanish), the privatization of a handful of state-owned enterprises, and a modest labor reform, La Nacion reported on June 13.

Argentina: Senate Approves Package of Economic and Tax Reforms

Argentina's official statistics office announced that the country's monthly inflation rate fell to 8.8% in April, marking the fifth consecutive monthly fall from 25.5% in December 2023, when President Javier Milei was inaugurated, Buenos Aires Times reported on May 14.

Argentina: Inflation Falls for Fifth Consecutive Month

Assessments

Americas

Chile

Colombia

Cuba

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

Mexico

Nicaragua

United States

Venezuela

U.S. border patrol officials drive near the wall along the Mexican border in Sasabe, Arizona, on Dec. 8, 2023. 

The fallout from Trump's pledged tariffs and mass deportations could worsen living conditions in countries like Mexico, though countries with like-minded leaders, like Argentina, may fare better.

What Trump's Focus on Immigration, Trade and Ideology Means for Latin America

Argentine President Javier Milei gestures before presenting the 2025 budget proposal to Congress in Buenos Aires on Sept. 15, 2024. 

Since taking office last year, President Milei has made solid progress toward lowering inflation and debt levels. But without wider-ranging institutional reforms, Argentina will remain susceptible to recurrent economic instability and financial crises.

Milei Puts Argentina's Economy on Better Footing. Can It Last?

Snapshots

Bolivia

An illustrated map shows Mercosur countries.

Stalled trade deals and dwindling intra-bloc commerce will leave the South American trade bloc in a deadlock, likely resulting in only minor rule changes to prevent Mercosur's dissolution.

Mercosur's Latest Meeting Highlights Its Growing Stagnation

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Peru

Palestinian Territories

China

Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his wife, Begona Gomez, arrive Oct. 5, 2023, at the Carlos V Palace at the Alhambra in Granada, Spain. Sanchez is expected to make an announcement about his political future on April 29 following his surprise decision April 25 to suspend public appearances after a court in Madrid announced an investigation into his wife for alleged influence-peddling and corruption.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South American Foreign Ministers Visit China, the Spanish Premier Announces His Political Future

The Argentine state-owned oil and gas company YPF’s refinery in Berisso, Buenos Aires, is seen on Oct. 18, 2022.

Energy

Political and economic challenges will impede the Milei government's plans to unleash the country's Vaca Muerta shale formation by deregulating the oil and gas sectors, at least in the short term.

Gauging the Outlook for Energy Reforms in Argentina

Panama

Flooding on the Rimac River on March 18, 2017, in Chosica, at the foot of the Andes east of Lima, Peru. The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

How El Nino Will Impact Latin America in 2024

Different currency exchanges are seen outside the Mexican Stock Exchange building at Reforma Avenue in Mexico City on Jan. 5, 2024. 

Mexico and Brazil are better positioned to take advantage of falling U.S. interest rates than Argentina, where political and economic uncertainty will remain high as its new president's reforms are tested.

How Will Changing Global Conditions Impact Latin America's Largest Economies?

Columns

On Security

Costa Rica

Ecuador

Policemen guard the car of Mayor Luis Chonillo after an attack on the official May 15, 2023, in Duran, Ecuador. Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Governments can take steps to stave off a surge in violence, but for many in the region, such measures will be politically and economically out of reach.

Forecasting Latin America's Next Crime Hotspot After Ecuador

On Geopolitics

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

South Africa

Israel

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

United Kingdom

Poland

Italy

Armenia

Ukraine

Azerbaijan

Russia

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

A graph falling down in front of the Argentine flag.

Argentina's governmental push to deregulate its economy and strengthen competition in the private sector is set to face significant challenges in the short term but will prove a more attractive business environment in South America's second-largest economy in the long term.

In Argentina, the Challenges and Benefits Facing Milei's Deregulation Push

A vendor sells newspapers showing the inauguration of Argentine President Javier Milei on the covers in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Dec. 11, 2023. 

Argentina's forthcoming austerity measures will likely benefit the country's economy in the long term, but until then, risks of social unrest will remain high.

Argentina Braces for Painful Economic Measures Under Its New President

Egypt

Vietnam

A campaign poster for incoming Argentine President Javier Milei on Nov. 30, 2023, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Milei plans to immediately send a package of economic reforms to the Argentine legislature.

The Weekly Rundown: Xi's Vietnam Visit, Egypt's Presidential Election

Argentina is one of the most resource-rich countries in the world and faces few immediate external threats. The South American country is bound in the north by the rivers of the Rio de la Plata drainage basin, in the west by the Andes Mountains, and in the east by the Atlantic Ocean. Its core territory is the fertile Humid Pampas region, which includes the populous capital city of Buenos Aires. This area is the heart of Argentina’s large agricultural sector, supported by soybeans, wheat, corn and yerba mate. The areas west and south of this core area much more arid and rural but are rich in oil and natural gas. The Andes Mountains, towering to nearly 7,000 meters (23,000 feet), form a natural barrier between Argentina and Chile and protect Argentina's western flank. This protection adds to the natural protection afforded all of South America by its geographic isolation. The only local threat to Argentina is Brazil's growth, which poses a risk to Argentina's control over the all-important Rio de la Plata drainage basin. Argentina's biggest security concern has always been any possible blockade of this basin or of the Port of Buenos Aires, located at the mouth of the river. However, South America's relative isolation and Brazil’s historical weakness have protected post-Colonial Argentina. From its secure position, Argentina has been able to develop the strong agriculture and energy export markets that have made the country wealthy. However, its intrinsic security has also allowed Argentina to become overly focused on domestic issues and has contributed to its failure to develop stable institutions. 

SITUATION REPORTS

EU, Mercosur: The Two Blocs Eye Free Trade Deal in Early December

Argentina: Milei's Ambitious Budget To Spark Protests Over Social Spending Cuts

France, EU, South America: Paris Reiterates Opposition to EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement

Argentina: Protests Over Pension Increase Veto and Inflation Unlikely to Escalate

Argentina: President's Pension Reform Veto Unlikely To Fuel Significant Political Instability

Argentina: Chamber of Deputies Passes Significant Package of Economic Reforms

Argentina: Senate Approves Package of Economic and Tax Reforms

Argentina: Inflation Falls for Fifth Consecutive Month

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