Bolivia

Military & Security

Politics

Bolivia's public prosecutor's office said it issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales in October on suspicion of "trafficking" a 15-year-old girl while he was in office, AP reported on Dec. 16.

Bolivia: Prosecutor's Office Formally Announced Arrest Warrant for Former President

Argentina

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

Economics

The European Union and Mercosur (a bloc formed by Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) reached an agreement on the terms of a free trade deal, Reuters reported Dec. 6.

EU, Mercosur: Despite Pushback in Europe, EU-Mercosur Deal Likely to Be Ratified

Former Bolivian President Evo Morales claimed that "agents of the State" shot his vehicle 14 times in an attempt to assassinate him, El Deber reported Oct. 27.

Bolivia: Morales's Assassination Attempt Claims to Fuel Further Unrest and Political Instability

Ethiopia

Nigeria

South Africa

Uganda

Cuba

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Egypt

Iran

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

China

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

Uzbekistan

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Russia

India

The BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, adopted its summit declaration, which noted the creation of a BRICS "partner country" status, Reuters reported on Oct. 23.

BRICS: Bloc Creates Partner Status, Extends Status to 13 Countries

A Bolivian prosecutor issued an arrest warrant for former President Evo Morales after he failed to testify on an investigation into him regarding human trafficking and rape, El Deber reported on Oct. 11.

Bolivia: Potential Arrest of Former President To Fuel Instability, Unrest Risks

Former Bolivian President Evo Morales gathered thousands of protesters in La Paz after a 190-kilometer-long (118-mile-long) march and gave President Luis Arce 24 hours to make Cabinet changes and address the country's socio-economic crisis, El Deber reported on Sept. 24.

Bolivia: Unrest and Political Instability Risks To Increase Amid Protests

Bolivian President Luis Arce signed into law a bill that suspends primary elections ahead of the presidential vote in August 2025, La Jornada reported on Aug. 19. 

Bolivia: Arce Suspends Primary Elections, Likely Fueling Demonstrations

Bolivia's Supreme Electoral Tribunal announced that the county will hold judicial elections on Dec. 1, over a year after the elections should have taken place in late 2023, DW reported on Aug. 13.

Bolivia: Authorities Call Judicial Elections in December

Assessments

Europe

Germany

France

(From left to right) Argentine President Javier Milei, Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena pose for a photo during the Mercosur summit in Montevideo on Dec. 6, 2024. 

The agreement offers significant market access and diversification opportunities for both trade blocs, but it also faces a complex ratification process and potential political backlash in Europe.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Snapshots

An illustrated map shows Mercosur countries.

Stalled trade deals and dwindling intra-bloc commerce will leave the South American trade bloc in a deadlock, likely resulting in only minor rule changes to prevent Mercosur's dissolution.

Mercosur's Latest Meeting Highlights Its Growing Stagnation

Former Bolivian President Evo Morales (2nd from left) participates in the 10th congress of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party on Oct. 4, 2023. 

Global Elections

The dispute over who will be the ruling party's 2025 presidential candidate is unlikely to ease anytime soon, portending more political gridlock, economic uncertainty and violent unrest.

A Rift at the Helm of Bolivia's Government Paves the Way for More Instability

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Peru

Palestinian Territories

Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and his wife, Begona Gomez, arrive Oct. 5, 2023, at the Carlos V Palace at the Alhambra in Granada, Spain. Sanchez is expected to make an announcement about his political future on April 29 following his surprise decision April 25 to suspend public appearances after a court in Madrid announced an investigation into his wife for alleged influence-peddling and corruption.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South American Foreign Ministers Visit China, the Spanish Premier Announces His Political Future

(From left to right) The presidents of Argentina, Paraguay, Brazil, Uruguay and Bolivia pose for photographs during the annual Mercosur leadership summit on Dec. 7, 2023, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The addition of Bolivia's small market will yield limited economic gains for the South American trade bloc, and may ultimately result in more internal disputes and challenges due to the country's political turbulence and poor environmental record.

For Mercosur, Bolivia's Accession May Bring More Headaches Than Benefits

Chile

Colombia

El Salvador

United States

Israel

People attend a rally in support of Israel in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Oct. 22, 2023. 

Social Issues

Anger over the conflict could temporarily strain Israel and the U.S.'s relations with left-wing governments in the region, while countries with large Jewish or Arab populations may see more security-related incidents.

Latin America's Response to the Israel-Hamas War 

Chilean President Gabriel Boric (right) and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (left) pose after holding a joint press conference at the Palacio de La Moneda in Santiago, Chile, on Jan. 29, 2023. 

Energy

To reduce its reliance on Chinese-made batteries, Germany is seeking to increase its presence in Latin America's ''Lithium Triangle.''

In Search of Lithium, Germany Eyes Partnerships With Chile and Argentina

Guidance

Ecuador

Japan

Philippines

South Korea

A motorist passes a sign for the 8th Congress of the Cuban Communist Party on April 6, 2021, in Havana. The Party will convene April 16-19 against the backdrop of broader Cuban discontent over a deteriorating economic situation,

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Economic Data From China and More Indirect U.S.-Iran Talks

Ghana

Senegal

Hong Kong SAR, China

Protesters fight gendarmes on March 5, 2021, near their barracks in the Colobane neighborhood in Dakar, Senegal, during clashes following the arrest of the main opposition leader, Ousmane Sonko. Sonko will face a court hearing on March 8 related to rape charges against him that Sonko and his supporters claim are entirely political.

The Weekly Rundown: The Mainland Seeks More Control Over Hong Kong, a Possible Senegalese Crackdown

Americas

Mexico

Venezuela

A member of the airport police stands guard as a forklift unloads a container full of Russia’s Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine from a plane in Ezeiza, Argentina, on Jan. 16, 2021. 

COVID-19

The delays will likely lead to further social unrest, economic strain and anti-government sentiment in countries across the region. 


Russia Delays Vaccine Shipments, Stalling Latin America’s Inoculation Efforts

Bolivia's president-elect, Luis Arce, celebrates his electoral victory during a rally in El Alto, Bolivia on Oct. 24, 2020. 

Security

Security Challenges in Latin America

Arce’s administration will struggle to garner the political support and foreign investment needed to revive the country’s pandemic-rattled economy.

A Tall Order Awaits Bolivia’s New President

Media

Podcasts

In this episode of the Essential Geopolitics podcast from Stratfor, a RANE company, a conversation about crossroads. In the next three weeks, the Americas will experience three significant elections: The U.S. presidential election, a referendum to decide whether Chile will draft a new constitution, and a general election in Bolivia to elect a new president and congress.

Essential Geopolitics: The Americas at the Crossroads

Bolivia is a landlocked country that borders five South American countries: Chile to the west, Brazil to the east, Peru to the north and Argentina and Paraguay to the south. Bolivia's lack of sea access poses a major geographical challenge, as the country struggles to integrate itself into the global economy. As a result, Bolivia's major trade partners are its neighbors, Brazil and Argentina.     Bolivia's history is full of major territorial defeats. The country lost its sea access to Chile after the War of the Pacific, which was fought from 1879 to 1884. Bolivia has also suffered territorial losses to Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Peru. While the country has settled its border disputes with most of these countries, it still claims the territory it lost to Chile. Every Bolivian administration has prioritized attempts to gain access to the Pacific Ocean.     Bolivia is extremely divided geographically and ethnically; the Andes mountains divide the   country's lowlands and highlands, making it one of the most politically unstable countries in South America. The highlands are predominantly made up of indigenous groups, mostly the Aymara and Quechua peoples, while lowlands residents are mostly Mestizo. The core of Bolivia's highlands is the La Paz metropolitan area, where the city of El Alto is also located. The core of Bolivia's lowlands is Santa Cruz, which is the country's richest department.     The disconnect between the highlands and lowlands has resulted in strong regionalism in the country. Political groups from the more developed departments located in the lowlands, where most of Bolivia's agricultural and natural gas production take place, have historically demanded more autonomy from the central political authority located in La Paz. 

SITUATION REPORTS

Bolivia: Prosecutor's Office Formally Announced Arrest Warrant for Former President

EU, Mercosur: Despite Pushback in Europe, EU-Mercosur Deal Likely to Be Ratified

Bolivia: Morales's Assassination Attempt Claims to Fuel Further Unrest and Political Instability

BRICS: Bloc Creates Partner Status, Extends Status to 13 Countries

Bolivia: Potential Arrest of Former President To Fuel Instability, Unrest Risks

Bolivia: Unrest and Political Instability Risks To Increase Amid Protests

Bolivia: Arce Suspends Primary Elections, Likely Fueling Demonstrations

Bolivia: Authorities Call Judicial Elections in December

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