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U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan signed a draft framework agreement on U.S.-Armenian cooperation over the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity and signed a memorandum on critical minerals and rare earths during Rubio's one-hour visit to Yerevan, Armenpress reported May 26.

U.S., Armenia: Countries Sign Partnership Deal Ahead of Armenian Elections

Russia

The pro-Kremlin Matryoshka bot network has published hundreds of fake videos targeting Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan ahead of the June 7 parliamentary election, including narratives claiming that Pashinyan is preparing Armenia for war with Russia, Meduza reported on May 14.

Armenia, Russia: Kremlin Influence Campaign Targets Pashinyan Ahead of Vote

Turkey

Turkey's foreign ministry said Turkey and Armenia had completed preliminary work to resume full trade ties on May 13, adding that more work still needed to be accomplished on technical connections and bureaucratic requirements before full normalization could take place, Bianet reported the same day.

Turkey, Armenia: Trade Ties To Resume, Marking Small Step Toward Normalization

Europe

Armenia hosted the European Political Community summit in Yerevan for the first time, bringing together more than 40 leaders from countries including France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Ukraine, Poland and Moldova, Armenpress reported on May 4.

Armenia, EU: Yerevan Hosts EPC Summit Ahead of First EU-Armenia Summit

Russian President Vladimir Putin told Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Moscow that Armenia cannot simultaneously be part of the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union due to incompatible customs regimes, AP reported April 1.

Russia, Armenia: Putin Warns of Economic Consequences if Yerevan Deepens EU Ties

Belarus

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk said Russia will permanently strengthen customs-style controls on goods imported from fellow members of the Eurasian Economic Union, or EAEU, Inbusiness.kz reported on Feb. 19.

Russia, EAEU: Moscow To Impose Permanent Border Controls Within EAEU

Azerbaijan

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Science & Technology

U.S. Vice President JD Vance met Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Baku and signed a Charter on Strategic Partnership, formalizing expanded cooperation on security, energy, regional connectivity and technology, Azertac reported on Feb. 10.

Azerbaijan, U.S.: Washington Elevates Baku as Regional Partner

Iran

Armenia and the United States signed a joint statement on the completion of negotiations on a civil nuclear cooperation agreement during U.S. Vice President JD Vance's visit to Yerevan, Reuters reported on Feb. 9. 

Armenia, U.S.: Washington Deepens Armenia Ties With Nuclear Deal During Vance Visit

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A cargo ship anchored May 16 in the Strait of Hormuz near Larak Island, Iran. Major gaps in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program persist, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will remain fragile over the next week.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Rubio Visits India, a Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

Russian President Vladimir Putin (center) and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) hold talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on April 1, 2026.

Russia is actively calibrating pressure on Armenia to derail its pro-EU course, as the Iran war temporarily impedes Yerevan's push to reduce its reliance on Russia-linked trade corridors.

Armenia's Push for Autonomy Meets Russian Resistance

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (left) shakes hands with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during the inaugural meeting of the Board of Peace at the Donald J. Trump Institute of Peace on Feb. 19, 2026, in Washington, D.C.

Yerevan and Baku's efforts to finalize a peace treaty and realign toward the West will be tested by Russian influence operations ahead of Armenian elections and Iran's competing geopolitical interests.

To Escape Russia's Orbit, Armenia and Azerbaijan Turn to Each Other -- and the West

U.S. President Donald Trump (center), Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (left) and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (right) hold up an agreement signed during a ceremony at the White House on Aug. 8, 2025.

The deal sidelines Russia and Iran while establishing a U.S. commercial presence in the South Caucasus, but it will remain fragile due to unresolved security guarantees and implementation challenges.

What To Make of the U.S.-Brokered Peace Deal Between Armenia and Azerbaijan

Snapshots

Georgia

A man walks past Azerbaijan's Embassy in Moscow on July 2, 2025. 

As the relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia sours, outside powers will embrace opportunities to increase their influence in the Caucasus.

 In the Caucasus, Russia's Sway Weakens Amid Quarrel With Azerbaijan

Archbishop Bagrat Galstanyan addresses the crowd with a megaphone during a protest in Yerevan, Armenia, on Oct. 25, 2024. 

The prime minister's escalating dispute with the national church threatens to generate unrest and derail already delayed efforts to implement a contentious peace deal with rival Azerbaijan.

In Armenia, an Archbishop's Arrest Escalates the Prime Minister's Feud With the Church

Armenia's foreign minister (2nd R) speaks during a meeting with his Azerbaijani and Kazakh counterparts in Almaty on May 10, 2024. 

A peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan is edging closer, but political delays in Yerevan postpone its implementation and leave the risk of renewed border tensions unresolved.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal Progresses, Though Hurdles Remain

China

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (4th from left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (5th from left) attend a meeting in Moscow on April 22, 2024. 

Russia's influence in the South Caucasus is set to decline in the years ahead as countries adjust their foreign policies to balance global and regional powers, creating opportunities for China, Turkey and the West.

The Coming South Caucasus Realignment

Columns

On Geopolitics

Palestinian Territories

Ukraine

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

Azerbaijan's border guards are seen in Ghizilhajili, a village thar Armenia recently returned to Azerbaijani control under border demarcation deal between the Caucasus rivals.

Despite progress on a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, significant disagreements on key issues suggest that a final agreement remains unlikely in the near term.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Negotiations Head in the Right Direction but Have a Long Way to Go

Supporters of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev rally with national flags and his portraits in Baku, Azerbaijan, after polls closed in the country's snap presidential election on Feb. 7, 2024. 

With the election now behind him, Aliyev will be free to keep pressuring Armenia to accept a peace deal on his terms, maintaining the risk of renewed violence between the two countries later this year.

In Azerbaijan, an Early Presidential Election May Portend Further Threats To Armenia

Burkina Faso

Mali

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Hong Kong SAR, China

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Located in the Caucasus region, Armenia is situated on the transcontinental land bridge between Europe and Asia. Several powerful countries in its neighborhood surround Armenia, including Turkey, Russia and Iran. For much of Armenia's history, part or all of the country has been controlled by each of its neighbors. Russia, which controlled Armenia most recently during the days of the Soviet Union, remains the most influential external power in the country to this day.    Armenia's capital, Yerevan, is the country's core and contains most of the country's resources. The city of Gyumri, where Russian military forces are stationed, is key to the country's security. This Russian military presence protects Armenia from its neighboring rivals, Turkey and Azerbaijan. From 1988 to 1994, Armenia and Azerbaijan were at war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The region is now under de facto Armenian control but remains a lingering source of tension with its neighbor Azerbaijan.    Because of its disputes with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia is economically isolated. The country thus depends on Russia for economic support and military protection. However, Russia does not always act in Armenia's best interest. Still, sustaining Russian support - or that of another power capable of defending Armenia in its complex and contested neighborhood - is Armenia's greatest geographic challenge.     Latest Forecast - Q2 2018:    Next year will kick off a busy election season in the Caucasus, too. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia will each hold presidential elections in 2018. More than the outcomes of these votes, though, the larger states nearby will influence foreign policy in the region. Azerbaijan and Georgia, for instance, will continue their efforts to forge closer energy, infrastructure and security ties with Turkey, while Armenia strengthens its military partnership with Russia and fortifies its economic links with Iran. Along the way, Tehran and Ankara will be careful not to challenge Moscow's strategic position in the Caucasus. Russia will remain the primary arbiter in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, working to prevent the dispute from escalating while at the same time supplying both sides with arms.

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Armenia: Countries Sign Partnership Deal Ahead of Armenian Elections

Armenia, Russia: Kremlin Influence Campaign Targets Pashinyan Ahead of Vote

Turkey, Armenia: Trade Ties To Resume, Marking Small Step Toward Normalization

Armenia, EU: Yerevan Hosts EPC Summit Ahead of First EU-Armenia Summit

Russia, Armenia: Putin Warns of Economic Consequences if Yerevan Deepens EU Ties

Russia, EAEU: Moscow To Impose Permanent Border Controls Within EAEU

Azerbaijan, U.S.: Washington Elevates Baku as Regional Partner

Armenia, U.S.: Washington Deepens Armenia Ties With Nuclear Deal During Vance Visit

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