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In an interview with Russian state media, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev dismissed as "political speculation" reports of the establishment of a permanent Turkish military base in Azerbaijan, TASS reported on Dec. 18.

Azerbaijan, Russia: Aliyev Says No Need for Turkish Military Base in Azerbaijan

Armenian Prime Minister Pashinian instructed lawmakers and a constitutional commission to draft a new Constitution and approve it by Dec. 30, 2026, RFE/RL reported June 20. 

Armenia: PM Announces Push for Constitutional Changes To Support Peace Deal

Armenia Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said that Armenia will leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) when the authorities deem it necessary, but the timeline for this step is still undetermined, Kommersant reported June 12. 

Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinian Says Armenia Will Leave the CSTO

The first border demarcator was installed between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Kommersant reported on April 23. 

Azerbaijan, Armenia: Border Demarcation Commences, Sparking Protests

Russia began withdrawing its peacekeeping contingent from Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh region, AP reported on April 17, citing Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. 

Azerbaijan, Russia: Moscow To End Nagorno-Karabakh Peacekeeping Mission Ahead of Schedule 

United States

Europe

Economics

The European Union will provide Armenia with 270 million euros ($292.57 million) in grants over four years, and the United States will provide $65 million in grants in 2024 as part of a "new and ambitious partnership agenda" to help pull Armenia out of Russia's orbit by improving Armenia's economic stability, food security, digital infrastructure and energy resources, Politico reported on April 5. 

Armenia: Yerevan Receives Resilience and Growth Package At EU-U.S. Summit

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in a video that Armenia would risk a war with Azerbaijan if Yerevan does not return four Azerbaijani villages it has held since the early 1990s as part of border delimitation talks, Reuters reported on March 19.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Armenia Floats Territorial Concessions To Facilitate Border Delimitation

Armenia's Defense Ministry said four soldiers were killed at a post in the southern region of Syunik in what Azerbaijan called a "revenge operation" after one of its soldiers was wounded by Armenian fire in the same area of the border the previous day, Reuters reported on Feb. 13.

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Deadliest Fire Exchange Since Azerbaijani Occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh

Snapshots

Azerbaijan's border guards are seen in Ghizilhajili, a village thar Armenia recently returned to Azerbaijani control under border demarcation deal between the Caucasus rivals.

Despite progress on a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, significant disagreements on key issues suggest that a final agreement remains unlikely in the near term.

Armenia-Azerbaijan Negotiations Head in the Right Direction but Have a Long Way to Go

Supporters of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev rally with national flags and his portraits in Baku, Azerbaijan, after polls closed in the country's snap presidential election on Feb. 7, 2024. 

With the election now behind him, Aliyev will be free to keep pressuring Armenia to accept a peace deal on his terms, maintaining the risk of renewed violence between the two countries later this year.

In Azerbaijan, an Early Presidential Election May Portend Further Threats To Armenia

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Assessments

Tunisia

The U.S. and Mexican flags. On Dec. 27, a delegation of top U.S. officials including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas is expected to travel to Mexico to meet with President Lopez Obrador to discuss ways to address the recent surge of migrants on the southern U.S. border.

Social Issues

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S. and Mexican Officials Talk Migration, Putin Meets With CIS Leaders

Iran

A photo taken on Oct. 3, 2023, shows a military position that was recently retaken by Azerbaijani troops in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

With the world distracted by other crises, Azerbaijan may be tempted to seize parts of southern Armenia. But for Baku, the potential benefits of such an operation are still unlikely to outweigh the costs.

Assessing the Prospect of Azerbaijan Invading Armenia

Slovakia

The U.S. Capitol on Dec. 22, 2022, in Washington.

The Weekly Rundown: Turkey's Parliamentary Session, a U.S. Government Shutdown

Armenians protest outside the government building in central Yerevan to urge the government to respond to the Azerbaijani military operation launched against the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region on Sept. 19, 2023.

With Nagorno-Karabakh in hand, Azerbaijan will increasingly pressure Armenia to grant concessions amid ongoing peace negotiations, and Russia's influence in the region will continue to decline.

What's Next for the South Caucasus After Azerbaijan's Seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh

A member of the Red Crescent shows bags of flour on Aug. 30, 2023, in Aghdam, Azerbaijan. 

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan are expected to remain high, although a return to large-scale war remains unlikely. 

Azerbaijan Maintains the Upper Hand in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Greece

Russian President Vladimir Putin (C), Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan (R) and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev hold talks Oct. 31, 2022, in Sochi, Russia.

U.S.-China Relations

The Weekly Rundown: Armenia's and Azerbaijan's Leaders Meet in Moscow, an APEC Summit in Detroit

A photo taken on May 2, 2023, shows the new checkpoint set up by Azerbaijan at the entrance of the Lachin Corridor, the only land link connecting the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region to Armenia. 

A recent setback in budding Turkey-Armenia normalization could prompt Azerbaijan to more aggressively pursue its interests in Nagorno-Karabakh, raising the risk of a new conflict.

A Return to Icier Turkey-Armenia Ties Risks Emboldening Azerbaijan

A Russian peacekeeper guards the Lachin Corridor, the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region's only land link with Armenia, on Dec. 27, 2022. 

As peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan stall, violent flare-ups in the disputed territory and along their shared border are increasingly likely.

Reassessing the Risk of an Escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh

Azeri soldiers stand guard at a checkpoint at the Lachin corridor, the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region's only land link with Armenia, on Dec. 27, 2022. 

Tehran's push to fill the gap left by Russia in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia could alter the balance of power in the region. 


What to Make of Growing Iran-Azerbaijan Tensions

Located in the Caucasus region, Armenia is situated on the transcontinental land bridge between Europe and Asia. Several powerful countries in its neighborhood surround Armenia, including Turkey, Russia and Iran. For much of Armenia's history, part or all of the country has been controlled by each of its neighbors. Russia, which controlled Armenia most recently during the days of the Soviet Union, remains the most influential external power in the country to this day.    Armenia's capital, Yerevan, is the country's core and contains most of the country's resources. The city of Gyumri, where Russian military forces are stationed, is key to the country's security. This Russian military presence protects Armenia from its neighboring rivals, Turkey and Azerbaijan. From 1988 to 1994, Armenia and Azerbaijan were at war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The region is now under de facto Armenian control but remains a lingering source of tension with its neighbor Azerbaijan.    Because of its disputes with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia is economically isolated. The country thus depends on Russia for economic support and military protection. However, Russia does not always act in Armenia's best interest. Still, sustaining Russian support - or that of another power capable of defending Armenia in its complex and contested neighborhood - is Armenia's greatest geographic challenge.     Latest Forecast - Q2 2018:    Next year will kick off a busy election season in the Caucasus, too. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia will each hold presidential elections in 2018. More than the outcomes of these votes, though, the larger states nearby will influence foreign policy in the region. Azerbaijan and Georgia, for instance, will continue their efforts to forge closer energy, infrastructure and security ties with Turkey, while Armenia strengthens its military partnership with Russia and fortifies its economic links with Iran. Along the way, Tehran and Ankara will be careful not to challenge Moscow's strategic position in the Caucasus. Russia will remain the primary arbiter in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, working to prevent the dispute from escalating while at the same time supplying both sides with arms.

SITUATION REPORTS

Azerbaijan, Russia: Aliyev Says No Need for Turkish Military Base in Azerbaijan

Armenia: PM Announces Push for Constitutional Changes To Support Peace Deal

Armenia: Prime Minister Pashinian Says Armenia Will Leave the CSTO

Azerbaijan, Armenia: Border Demarcation Commences, Sparking Protests

Azerbaijan, Russia: Moscow To End Nagorno-Karabakh Peacekeeping Mission Ahead of Schedule

Armenia: Yerevan Receives Resilience and Growth Package At EU-U.S. Summit

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Armenia Floats Territorial Concessions To Facilitate Border Delimitation

Armenia, Azerbaijan: Deadliest Fire Exchange Since Azerbaijani Occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh

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